What is up FantasyGuru fam!
I’m extremely excited to get started writing here as a fantasy analyst for FG! For those who have not heard of me, I’ve been working in the fantasy industry for quite a while now with previous stops at ProFootballFocus, 4for4, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, and numberFire/FanDuel. My style of writing is aimed at utilizing both data and analytics to help provide a winning edge.
“Tyler’s Thoughts” will be a weekly column where I’ll be going over some hot-topic ideas that are on my brain each week. It’ll be a revolving topic, but you’ll always find something actionable to take away from it. I’ll never give advice that I personally would not follow. My personal goal is to help provide you with all the tools and information possible so that by the time your name is on the clock for whatever type of draft you’re doing, you’re well prepared to put together a championship-caliber roster.
Let’s get right into this week’s piece which is a rather self-explanatory one — 12 Rookies to Target or Fade in Bestball Leagues.
Kyler Murray, QB (Target)
There’s not much needed to say to convince you of the potential of Murray at the NFL level. He leaves Oklahoma after throwing for 4,361 passing yards, 42 touchdowns, while setting an NCAA-record 13.0 AYA. He was also one of the most accurate passers at the collegiate level, leading this year’s class of quarterbacks in “on-target” passes at 79.2%, per SIS. Murray also posted 1,000 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns to complete one of the most well-rounded collegiate resumes you could ask for. He now enters Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense where he will attempt to spread out defenses and attack them vertically. Not only should this lead to big plays through the air, but with defensive backs turning their backs to run deeper down field, the running lanes will be wide open for Murray to take off. Murray averaged a 145.0 QBR against man coverage last year and averaged 9.1 yards per carry on the ground. Defenses will be forced to pick their poison, while bestballers can sit back and enjoy the fantasy point tour-de-force.
Josh Jacobs, RB (Target)
This year’s running back class may not be chalk-filled with potential All-Pro’s, but there’s quite a few who can become fantasy relevant. Jacobs enters one of the best situations without any competition ahead (or behind) of him on the depth chart, leaving him set to see the lion’s share of touches as a three-down back. Oakland spent significant capital improving their offense (Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, Trent Brown) and now have provided quarterback Derek Carr with a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Jacobs should be one that Carr relies on heavily due to his combination of elusiveness and receiving skillset. Jacobs’ ADP continues to rise and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him finish in the late second round by August. Keep grabbing in the third and fourth and enjoy those early bestball shares.
A.J. Brown, WR (Fade)
Arguably one of the best receiving prospects of the class, Brown landed in one of the least fantasy-friendly environments to start his career. The Titans receiver depth chart is flush with early draft capital in Brown, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor. The Titans signed slot receiver Adam Humphries to a four-year, $36M contract ($19M guaranteed) and will also have Delanie Walker returning from injury. The passing game may be flooded with names, but it certainly wasn’t flooded with volume last year with Tennessee ranking 31st in pass play percentage. Tennessee’s offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, is now calling plays for the first time in his career and reportedly wants to build off Derrick Henry’ssuccess late last season. If Smith is true to his word here, it’s unlikely we see a very productive rookie campaign out of Brown.
Miles Sanders, RB and David Montgomery, RB (Target)
Both of these running backs enter the offseason in what looks like committee’s on paper, but by this time next year, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see both labeled “RB1” for their respective teams.
Philadelphia may have a surplus of backs currently on their roster, but it shouldn’t take long for Sanders to ascend to the top of the depth chart. Free agent acquisition Jordan Howard is a two-down back who thrived off volume instead of high efficiency in Chicago. Out of the 56 backs with at least 100 touches last year, Howard ranked 43rd in yards per carry (3.74) and 44th in fantasy points per touch (0.67). Sanders brings more athleticism, better receiving skills, and a more well-rounded skillset better fitted for today’s pass-happy league. His breakaway speed could lead to several weeks with him producing for your bestball squads.
Montgomery was one of many backs that underperformed at the NFL Combine, but his production on the field at Iowa State is what has many so excited for his NFL arrival. Montgomery led the nation in missed tackles last year, while displaying good vision as a runner and sharp route-running as a receiver out of the backfield. Montgomery will have to contend with better competition than Sanders in Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis. Cohen should remain a weapon sprinkled in throughout the game plan, leaving Montgomery to beat Davis in training camp for the lead back role. This will be one to keep an eye on this summer and see how it evolves.
Andy Isabella, WR (Target)
I wrote extensively about why I believe Isabella is a fantastic late round bestball target in our Bestball Guide, but I’ll rehash the important takeaways. Isabella joins Murray in an offense that we’re expecting to see heavy passing volume and aggressive downfield throwing. Combining 4.31 speed with the ability to play both inside and outside, Isabella should be a key cog in Kingsbury’s offense as he moves him around the formation. Isabella’s breakaway speed — he led the nation in deep receiving touchdowns (9) and ranked second in receiving yards (705) on plays 20+ yards downfield, per PFF — makes him an ideal bestball candidate.
DK Metcalf, WR (Target)
Another downfield specialist, Metcalf’s collegiate career was more defined by his health concerns than his big plays. Metcalf completed just one full season (out of three), but possesses a 99th-percentile speed score after running a 4.33 at the combine at 6’-3”, 228-pounds. That straight-line speed is what makes him an interesting bestball candidate in Seattle, despite their run-heavy nature. The Seahawks could slide Tyler Lockett inside for more slot routes this season, opening an outside role for Metcalf to stretch the defenses vertically. Add in Russell Wilson’s improvisational passing style, and we could be in line for several big fantasy outings from Metcalf as a big play threat and red zone specialist.
T.J. Hockenson, TE and Noah Fant, TE (Fade)
Rookie tight ends rarely produce in Year 1, and while there was high draft capital spent on both Hockenson and Fant, I’m sticking with history on this one and not prioritizing drafting these two tight ends. The Lions not only drafted Hockenson, but they gave Jesse James a four-year, $22.6M contact ($10.5M guaranteed). No team targeted their tight end at a lower rate than Detroit last year (12%), but the addition of these two could see that number rise. However, James remains a roadblock and should start the season as the TE1 while Hockenson learns the playbook. The tight end position is historically one of the more difficult positions for rookies to pick up quickly. Fant, on the other hand, is a one-dimensional tight end in the Evan Engram mold where blocking isn’t very high on his list of strengths. Not being able to block should be an early detriment to him seeing the field regularly. Fewer snaps means fewer opportunities for him to produce in Year 1.
Darrell Henderson, RB (Target)
One of this year’s most electric rookies, Henderson finished his final collegiate season at Memphis averaging 8.3 yards per carry and scoring 22 rushing touchdowns. He recorded 27 runs of 20-plus yards, ten more than any other running back in this year’s class, per PFF. With the long-term health of Todd Gurley’s knee a major question mark, Henderson — at a minimum — should be used as a change of pace back in Year 1. If things go awry, Henderson could find himself as the lead back in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Sean McVay’s ability to scheme fewer defenders in the box should make this a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators facing Henderson, given his combination of speed and elusiveness.
Justice Hill, RB (Target)
After keeping Chris Carson off the field as just a freshman, there was a lot of optimism for the get-go for Hill at Oklahoma State. Hill put together a productive collegiate resume averaging 5.6 yards per carry while scoring 31 total touchdowns. He then went on to post an impressive combine, finishing in the 90th percentile of the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump. Those athletic measurements show up in his running with his speed and explosion, and now he finds himself backing up a 29-year-old running back on one of the league’s most efficient running games. Hill should immediately slot in as a change of pace back with RB1 upside if anything were to happen to Mark Ingram. With an ADP still in the 14th round, Hill should be a priority late-round target of yours.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR (Fade)
Similar to A.J. Brown, Arcega-Whiteside is a better dynasty stash than one to prioritize in bestball drafts in 2019. The Eagles short-term outlook at the wide receiver position has quite a few names on it, with Arcega-Whiteside entering training camp as the WR4 on paper. When you add in that the Eagles led the league in target percentage to the tight end position (35%), it’s probably most realistic to pencil in Arcega-Whiteside as fifth or sixth on the target totem pole. While things move fast in the NFL, it’s a bit early to jump on the Arcega-Whiteside train. Stash him in dynasty leagues but let someone take him in your bestball drafts.
