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From the Gut – NFBC Cutline FAAB Strategies

June 3, 2019 by Vlad Sedler

If you manage teams in the NFBC Cutline, this strategy article is just for you. If you’ve never played, it’s something you may want to consider getting into next season. Cutlines are 10-team points leagues with an overall component that is set up in best-ball style. That means there’s very little maintenance during the season after the draft since your points are optimized daily for the 23 active roster slots among your 42-player roster. The only in-season maintenance is the two FAAB (free agent bidding) periods. One took place in mid-April and the second (and last) is right around the corner – bids/results run at 10pm EST on Tuesday, June 4. At that point, your roster is locked for the remainder of the season.

How one approaches this second FAAB bidding period depends on their current roster situation (depth per position, number of injuries) and most importantly, how many FAAB dollars they have left. With the seemingly countless number of studs promoted from Triple-A and surprise hitters and pitchers that we’ve seen develop over the last month, it may appear that those who blew the majority of their budgets made a big mistake. But that’s not exactly the case. It behooves us to save for the second FAAB period in June every single year and not just because we’ve had guys like Austin Riley, Griffin Canning and Michael Chavis pop up into the picture. During last year’s first FAAB period, anyone who blew their budget on Juan Soto received a valuable full-season asset. Earlier this April, there were a handful of valuable additions like Chris Paddack, Brad Peacock, Domingo German and Max Fried who have proved to be incredibly valuable. Personally, I spent $815 of my $1000 budget in the first deadline and reaped some decent rewards (Brandon Lowe – $283, Matt Strahm – $257, Dan Vogelbach – $136) expecting all three to be helpful for the rest of the season. If you spent a big chunk of your change on guys like Tim Beckham and Christian Walker you’ve been let down. If you ended up saving most of your FAAB dollars, then you can go shopping with comfort on Tuesday. But you’ve got to do so in the right way. I’m here to help you with that.

Team Review

I see countless mistakes with folks’ Cutline bidding every season so I wanted to be certain that you all are optimizing each and every bidding dollar and roster spot. The first thing we need to do is analyze and recognize the guys who we are dropping.

For example, in my league, I have a few obvious drops. Arodys Vizcaino is out for the season, Cody Allen and Mark Melancon aren’t closers and Luke Weaver is likely out for the next 6-8 weeks even though he isn’t having surgery. I then have a couple of middling guys who don’t play every day (Hernan Perez, Greg Allen) who are not 10-team caliber. Not to mention, I can identify at least 15 hitters available on FAAB that can be more productive for my team than those two. My last and final potential drop is on the bubble. It’s Dbacks’ SP Merrill Kelly, but I’ve decided that I’ll be dropping him as well since I’ve identified at least five starting pitchers I’d rather have contribute to my roster than Kelly.

So that’s the first step: identify the number of drops you have on your team and begin setting up your bids with them. You can do so directly on the FREE AGENTS page or can write them down on paper and set up columns of new adds for each drop.

Secondly, you’ll want to review the overall composition of your roster. Do you have enough depth (backups) at each offensive position? Do you have 17-21 total pitchers on your roster who are currently positive contributors? For example, if you feel like you have a plethora of viable pitchers but only two usable catchers, you may want to consider an entire bid column for catchers dropping a pitcher who you won’t be using. Even if those are borderline 10-team adds (guys like Elias Diaz, Jason Castro, Chance Sisco), you’ll still want to load up a single catcher bid column with only catchers to ensure you have depth at the position. Yes, most catchers are worthless, but this is a points league and every point counts. Particularly at a position where a team’s primary catcher can frequently be found on the bench a couple times per week, it’s important to have a rotation of usable resources to fill up the two catcher slots we start each day.

Once you’ve identified your drop candidates, you can proceed with figuring out who you will be bidding on.

Bidding Strategies

The number one rule of Cutline bidding is to make sure you’re spending every remaining FAAB dollar. One way to do that is to make sure your top bid amounts in each column equal the amount of FAAB you have left. Since there are no more FAAB periods in Cutline, you want to be sure that you are extracting value out of every last dollar you have. If you have $550 left and plan on dropping six guys, make sure the top bid in each column equals $550 (ie: $401 + $103 + $34 + $6 + $3 + $3). Perhaps you want to spend $401 on Riley and spread the remaining $149 out among your remaining five bids. Here’s one way you can set this up:

Bid 1 (CI/MI bid) Player Amount Bid 2 (2nd CI/MI) Player Amount Bid 3 (pitcher) Player Amount
drop (Hernan Perez)   drop (Arodys Vizcaino)   drop (Corey Knebel)  
add (primary) Austin Riley $401 add (primary) Michael Chavis $34 add (primary) Griffin Canning $103
add (conditional) Michael Chavis $401 add (conditional) Renato Nunez $34 add (conditional) Martin Perez $103
add (conditional) Renato Nunez $401 add (conditional) Derek Dietrich $34 add (conditional) Lance Lynn $103
add (conditional) Derek Dietrich $401 add (conditional) Cavan Biggio $34 add (conditional) Wade Miley $103
add (conditional) Cavan Biggio $401 add (conditional) Nicky Lopez $34 add (conditional) Danny Duffy $103
add (conditional) Nicky Lopez $401 add (conditional) Howie Kendrick $34 add (conditional) Chris Bassitt $103
add (conditional) Howie Kendrick $401 add (conditional) Tommy La Stella $34 add (conditional) Daniel Mengden $103

Here we have $538 allocated to three bid spots where your balance ($12 of $550) can be allocated across your remaining bids. The obvious downside of this scenario is you give yourself pretty much a zero percent chance of getting Chavis as your second bid, and of course, you are clearly overpaying for the conditionals in your first bid (Nunez, Dietrich, etc). But it’s the ideal way to set it up to keep your bids focused and your offense and pitching optimized for the rest of the season.

An alternative way to do this is to essentially resign yourself to the fact that you won’t get Riley and flatten out your bids (bump Riley down by $200 – $300 and spread that surplus between Bids 2 and 3).

Bid 1 (CI/MI bid) Player Amount Bid 2 (2nd CI/MI) Player Amount Bid 3 (pitcher) Player Amount
drop (Hernan Perez)   drop (Arodys Vizcaino)   drop (Corey Knebel)  
add (primary) Austin Riley $205 add (primary) Michael Chavis $177 add (primary) Griffin Canning $156
add (conditional) Michael Chavis $205 add (conditional) Renato Nunez $177 add (conditional) Martin Perez $156
add (conditional) Renato Nunez $205 add (conditional) Derek Dietrich $177 add (conditional) Lance Lynn $156
add (conditional) Derek Dietrich $205 add (conditional) Cavan Biggio $177 add (conditional) Wade Miley $156
add (conditional) Cavan Biggio $205 add (conditional) Nicky Lopez $177 add (conditional) Danny Duffy $156
add (conditional) Nicky Lopez $205 add (conditional) Howie Kendrick $177 add (conditional) Chris Bassitt $156
add (conditional) Howie Kendrick $205 add (conditional) Tommy La Stella $177 add (conditional) Daniel Mengden $156

When considering going big for a top priority, ask yourself: do you have a realistic shot?

If you only have $550 left and see several other teams in your league with $750-plus remaining you can pretty much assume that you won’t get Riley. Instead, consider spreading out your bid amounts more evenly ($100 and up) among four to six target sets.

If you have most of your FAAB left, go big on your top target. If you have say $800 left, you can go $700+ on a mixed bid (top hitters and pitchers).  

If you have less than $300, it might be wiser to focus on secondary targets and just throw ‘keep’em-honest’ bids on the most coveted prizes.

Be sure to keep your team’s depth at positions in mind as you create your bids. If you happen to have a surplus of talent at CI and your pitching is weak, put more of your bidding dollars towards targeting pitchers in their team’s respective starting rotations who you think will provide value. Check your point splits in the standings (hitting vs. pitching) to help guide you.

Other things to keep in mind:

  • Make your lists of conditionals deep

Don’t mess around here. If you’re dropping a guy who is out for the season, make sure you’ve got 10 or more conditional bids per drop, in your order of preference. If it’s someone on your roster bubble, figure out the cut-off point. If you’re thinking about dropping Chad Pinder, make sure the last guy on your bid list for this Pinder drop projects better rest-of-season. If that’s your sixth MI or OF in the order, stop the bid there. If there are 12 guys you think are better than Pinder ROS, put all those guys in. Do this exercise for each of your drops.

  • Grouping by position

I prefer to group them by position, but if you want, you can make one drop for a mixed bid of the best hitters and pitchers for all of the best resources available and then make the rest of your bids by position (one for catchers, one for outfielders, one for pitchers). You can mix multi-eligible guys in on all of your CI/MI/OF bids if you like.

  • Determining your order

How do we determine our order for any specific bid group? Let’s start with the one from my example that included Nunez, Lopez, Kendrick, Dietrich, La Stella and Biggio. In addition to general stat projections, there are several things we should prioritize, with the first being likelihood of playing time. If we don’t think Nicky Lopez or Biggio are going to stick in the majors for long, perhaps we drop them down our lists. Maybe we think La Stella cools off or that Dietrich’s playing time is affected by the return of Scooter Gennett eventually. These are all things we need to keep in mind with 16 weeks remaining. I’d also consider how good the offense around them is and where they hit in the lineup. Guys in run-producing lineup spots (middle of the order), guys who steal bases who lead off and pure power hitters should be your priority.

  • Prioritize Multi-eligible guys

Hitters like Dietrich, La Stella, Kendrick are all more valuable in this best ball format with their ability to crack your optimal lineup at different positions. Let’s say a scenario where Dietrich scored 15 fantasy points on the day. If he were MI eligible only and you had a 2B, MI and UT guy who produced 15+ points that day in those slots, Dietrich’s big 15-point day wouldn’t even crack your starting lineup nor provide you points on that day. You get the picture. The more position eligibility your hitter has, the better. It should be a tie-breaker in your conditional bid list if it comes down to two guys of equal value where one guy is eligible at two or more positions and the other isn’t. David Fletcher is a guy who is particularly valuable in this format where he’s eligible at four positions (2B/3B/SS/OF) and you know that he’ll usually get to lead off when a southpaw is on the mound against the Angels.

  • Checking your work

Double-check all of your drops and make sure you don’t have duplicates in there by accident. Your second drop will be voided if you have a duplicate in there. Make sure the sum of the high bid totals don’t exceed your total budget (just in case you do get each of your top bids – unlikely, but possible). Finally, save your work along the way. I’m sure you know, but it’s that button in the top right corner.

 

Finally, here’s my order of guys you should bid on, per position, who are owned in less than 90% of Cutline leagues:

* (asterisk denotes risk of getting sent down to minor leagues)

* (prioritze guys bolded)

Catchers  Team
Mitch Garver MIN
Christian Vazquez BOS
James McCann CHW
Elias Diaz PIT
Josh Phegley OAK
*Chance Sisco BAL
Roberto Perez CLE
Tony Wolters COL
Curt Casali CIN
Carson Kelly ARI
*Will Smith LAD

 

Corner Infielders  Team Pos Notes
Austin Riley ATL 3B/OF  
Michael Chavis BOS 2B/3B  
Miguel Sano MIN 3B   
Derek Dietrich CIN 1B/2B/OF Gennett coming back soon
Ryam McMahon COL 1B/2B   
David Fletcher LAA 2B/3B/SS/OF  
Renato Nunez BAL 3B  
Hunter Dozier KCR 1B/3B Currently on IL
Howie Kendrick WAS 1B/2B/3B  
Tommy La Stella LAA 2B/3B  
Jose Martinez STL 1B/OF  
Kyle Seager SEA 3B  
Rowdy Tellez TOR 1B  
Jake Lamb ARI 3B Back soon but hits RHP only
Albert Pujols LAA 1B  
Ji-Man Choi TBR 1B  
Colin Moran PIT 3B  

 MIDDLE INFIELDERS: You could consider bidding on Keston Hiura and Luis Urias even though both are in the minors – sort of a sneaky play since both have more upside than most of the guys on the list below.

Middle Infielders Team Pos Notes
Brandon Lowe TBR 2B  
Michael Chavis BOS 2B/3B  
Brendan Rodgers COL SS Soon to be 2B eligible
Derek Dietrich CIN 1B/2B/OF  
Ryan McMahon COL 1B/2B   
David Fletcher LAA 2B/3B/SS/OF  
Scott Kingery PHI SS/OF Second half looks promising
Howie Kendrick WAS 1B/2B/3B  
Tommy La Stella LAA 2B/3B  
Nicky Lopez KCR 2B/SS No HR/SB yet
Kevin Newman PIT SS Big prospect, high upside
Orlando Arcia MLW SS  
Danny Santana TEX 2B/OF More playing time while Gallo sidelined
Nick Ahmed ARI SS  
Addison Russell CHC 2B/SS  
David Bote CHC 2B/3B  
Freddy Galvis TOR SS  
Luis Rengifo LAA 2B/SS  

 

Outfield Team Pos Notes
Austin Riley ATL 3B/OF  
Raimel Tapia COL OF  
Alex Verdugo LAD OF BIG 2nd half coming
Alex Gordon KCR OF Boring but still the 3-hole hitter
Oscar Mercado CLE OF  
Derek Dietrich CIN 1B/2B/OF  
Dwight Smith Jr. BAL OF  
David Fletcher LAA 2B/3B/SS/OF  
Scott Kingery PHI SS/OF  
Corey Dickerson PIT OF Back soon from IL
Jarrod Dyson ARI OF  
DJ Stewart BAL OF Sneaky bid this week
Leury Garcia CHW OF  
Albert Almora  CHC OF  
Garrett Cooper MIA 1B/OF  
Harold Ramirez MIA OF  
Josh Reddick HOU OF Playing time will dip when Tucker arrives
Myles Straw HOU OF Arguably fastest guy in MLB
Brian Goodwin LAA OF  
Willie Calhoun TEX OF Worth a stab if he’s back soon
Jordan Luplow CLE OF Lefty crusher but PT not consistent
Franchy Cordero SDP OF Back from IL soon but crowded OF

 

Pitchers Team Notes
Mike Soroka ATL  
Lucas Giolito CHW  
Mike Clevinger CLE Could be back before end of month
Frankie Montas OAK  
Griffin Canning LAA  
Andrew Heaney LAA  
Hector Neris – RP PHI Locked in as closer
Martin Perez MIN  
Felix Pena LAA  
Spencer Turnbull DET  
Alex Reyes STL Worth a shot
Devin Smeltzer MIN Risk of being demoted
Danny Duffy KCR  
Sergio Romo – RP MIA closer
Hansel Robles – RP LAA closer
Lance Lynn TEX Strikeout upside
Wade Miley HOU  
Jimmy Nelson MLW  
Jon Duplantier ARI  
Luke Jackson – RP ATL closer
Corbin Martin HOU Will he stick in rotation?
Jalen Beeks TBR  
Daniel Mengden OAK  
Zach Davies MLW  
Zach Plesac CLE Dicey bid with Clevinger back soon
Cishek/Strop – RPs CHC Tough to bid not knowing who will close

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