Structural advantages were something we discussed two weeks ago, and it will be the main focus of this piece for the next couple of weeks. There’s a few very important concepts I use as building blocks, that once explained, will make the success probability charts easier to apply strategy-wise. Dynasty leagues have a plethora of concepts and ideas that can work, but having a strong grasp of how the wheel is turning can create awareness for why things are working the way they are.
Today will focus on a concept that I had to learn over many years, through trial and error. Diligently evaluating the rosters in your league, beyond your own, is arguably one of the most important traits of a good dynasty owner. Today we’ll be looking at a few rosters and assessing some potential weaknesses in construction.
TEAMS TO TARGET FUTURE PICKS
There’s been a lot of talk about rookie drafts and how to deal with future picks over the last couple of months. It’s a main focus of my dynasty strategy, and slowly but surely gaining leverage in the rookie draft is the way I win dynasty leagues. In order to gain leverage, there needs to be tactics which allow that advantage to be gained without other owners recognizing it. The best way I’ve found is targeting future picks of high variance teams. This has been mentioned before, but what does a high variance team look like? Let’s take a look.
Below are a few teams in dynasty leagues I’m currently playing. Each team will have a different disadvantage I view as potentially exploitable for the 2019 season. Some are more obvious than others. This will be interactive. Open a word document, and write what you view as the weaknesses and overall thoughts on each roster, and see how closely they resemble what I see.
Since these are actual people, and competition in my leagues, I’ve stripped the names. I’m not that much of a jerk!
TEAM ONE
- Format: Best Ball
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 30 (36 in the offseason)
- Starting Lineup Spots: 9
- QB – 1
- RB – 2-4
- WR – 3-5
- TE – 1-3
- Scoring – PPR
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate in a best ball setting, over 16 weeks?
Critique: I look at this roster and it’s easy to spot the dominant group of starting RBs. Between Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell, Josh Jacobs, this team should be able to manage a top-five finish (in the league) at the position, even accounting for an injury at the position. Latavius Murray isn’t an appealing dynasty name, but he could provide some really high floor weeks in a best ball setting. Depth isn’t great beyond that, but it’ll do. The WRs are a mess. A.J. Green and Sterling Shepard are solid pieces that will likely put out a bunch of startable weeks, but they simply won’t be able to sustain a league-winning pace that needs to be set. Kenny Stills, John Brown, Josh Gordon, Keke Coutee and even Donte Moncrief are ok depth pieces, but they simply aren’t going to sustain a high-end pace, especially when bye weeks hit. QBs look great and should be top three-to-five in the league. Even with an injury or two, that position is highly insulated.
TEs are why we’re here. It’s become trendy to fade the TE position completely over the last five years, especially if unsuccessfully landing a top-end option. ESPECIALLY in best ball formats, this can be a disaster. While TE isn’t the most important, it’s still vital for taking home a championship. If fading the position, at the very least, have a few young, high-upside pieces so that there are at least avenues to relevant production (Austin Hooper and David Njoku are a few names that come to mind). Between those five TEs rostered, really only Trey Burton is in a fantasy-relevant role (as things currently stand), and he’s still working his way back from offseason surgery. Ultimately, this caps the teams ceiling, and the chances this team finishes worst in TE scoring is a real likelihood.
Considering the entire roster, and injury rates of players in general, this team is one or two bad things happening away from being a bottom 3-to-4 roster, and a top five pick in 2020 rookie drafts. Even if things go perfectly and all the best players stay healthy and produce like expected, the TE position caps the ceiling. This would be a very, very safe future first to pursue, and it contains real upside. It’s also very important to note that there’s a lot of win-now pieces on this roster, which would suggest the owner thinks it’s a contender and might be willing to easily move off his future picks.
TEAM TWO
- Format: Best Ball
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 30 (36 in the offseason)
- Starting Lineup Spots: 10
- QB – 1-2
- RB – 1-7
- WR – 1-7
- TE – 1-7
- Scoring – PPR, TE Premium (1.5 PPR)
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate to setting a lineup for 12 weeks, and navigating bye weeks?
Critique: In terms of top-end dynasty talent, this team has it. Between George Kittle, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrius Guice and Amari Cooper, this team has a base of studs that should be able to sustain the value of the team for many years to come. Along with that, Parris Campbell, A.J. Brown, Anthony Miller and Marquise Brown bring a lot of youth and upside to the table. Devonta Freeman is also a nice 2019 asset. Compared to the team reviewed above, it’s much stronger. However, while stronger, there are some clear deficiencies.
First of all, while most of the starting lineup should be strong, especially early in the season, there may be a waiting period for some of those younger players to develop into every week starters. In 12 team leagues with 10+ starters, every starting lineup spot matters. Having a weak ninth or tenth starter can shift matchups here and there, and with some bad luck, could seriously influence early season standings.
The big issue on this roster is the QB position. Dak Prescott is a totally acceptable QB1 in a SF league, and while he doesn’t have huge upside, is stable. Jameis Winston, on the other hand, has a long history of being erratic, and also, being benched. Winston has missed a significant amount of games in the last two years due to being benched or injury (8), and with him as the only other starting QB on a roster, this is begging for pain. Rostering only two startable QBs in a SF league is already a big issue, but compounding that with a high variance option that could miss multiple games creates a very high likelihood of something going wrong. That’s not even to mention the two weeks in which Winston and Prescott are on bye weeks. For this reason alone, and for the assets this team would have to give up mid-season to acquire a QB, this team is one to target.
Another positive of pursuing this teams future picks is that they’ll likely be cheap. This team will be projected as a contender, and most importantly, the owner will believe that. One of the easiest things to take advantage of in dynasty leagues is the irrational confidence of owners. This is an important idea for your own teams as well. Even if you feel the team you’ve built is incredibly strong, recognize that it’s a team of players you prefer, not necessarily an actual optimal roster. This unconscious error is why future picks are so essential.
