Welcome to the weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
WEEK 11 PREVIEW
Not much to get excited about this week, as we’re just filling holes in our lineups for Week 11. The big winners this past week were those who streamed Pirates’ fringe guys for their eight games so I hope you were able to grab a few shares. Our hot rookie call-ups continue to see bad luck with Kevin Cron getting demoted after finding himself in the starting lineup for just two of the seven games he was on the roster. Cavan Biggio is hanging in there but has a strikeout rate near 32% to kick off his big-league career. This week’s big prize is Twins’ rookie southpaw Devin Smeltzer, but even then, not sure if he’s someone we should get overly excited about. There are a handful of outfielders biddable in 15-teamers, including DJ Stewart, but no one who we should be breaking the bank on this week. Use this quiet weekend to fill your lineup holes by taking advantage of one-week rentals in advantageous matchups.
PITCHERS
The following are starting pitchers projected for two starts who you’ll start no matter what:
Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Walker Buehler, Luis Castillo, Max Fried, Noah Syndergaard, Frankie Montas, Masahiro Tanaka, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shane Bieber, Griffin Canning, Wade Miley
These guys you’ll probably start in all formats as well, but some of them carry some risk:
- Madison Bumgarner (LH/SFG) – @ NYM, v LAD
- Robbie Ray (LH/ARI) – v LAD, @ TOR
- Jon Lester (LH/CHC) – v LAA, v STL (can bench him in 12-team leagues)
- Zach Davies (RH/MLW) – v MIA, v PIT (would like it better if these were road starts)
- Pablo Lopez (RH/MIA) – @ MLW, v ATL (can play it safe and bench him, but if you’re benching him, may as well drop him; tough to play in 12-teamers)
- Corbin Martin (RH/HOU) – @ SEA, v BAL (this two-step is his last stand)
- Eric Lauer (LH/SDP) – v PHI, v WAS (middling guy with tough matchups, but at least he’s home)
Dangerous 15-team streamers
- Wade LeBlanc (LH/SEA) – v HOU, @ LAA – He’s served up at least two runs and five hits in each of his six starts, but if there was any guy to get lucky with based on schedule, LeBlanc may be him since the Astros are short-handed and the Angels can’t hit lefties.
- Genesis Cabrera (LH/STL) – v CIN, @ CHC – A 6.35 ERA in Triple-A and got blasted for 3 ER in 3.2 in his first big-league start. I’d be scared of that second start in Wrigley, and if he does get blasted, it’ll be Ponce de Leon up next.
Two-Steppers to Avoid (unless you’re feeling lucky or see something I don’t)
- Dylan Bundy (RH/BAL) – @ TEX, @ HOU
- Ryan Carpenter (LH/DET) – v TB, v MIN
- Jake Junis (RH/KCR) – v BOS, v CHW
- Steven Brault (LH/PIT) – v ATL, @ MLW
- Clayton Richard (LH/TOR) – v NYY, v ARI
- Drew Smyly (LH/TEX) – v BAL, v OAK
- Trevor Cahill (RH/LAA) – @ CHC, v SEA
General SP / RP additions
- Devin Smeltzer (LH/MIN) – Likely the big addition of the weekend, but much will lie with how he performs if he gets the start on Sunday. If he doesn’t get it, then it’s possible he gets a very usable @ CLE / @ DET next week. He fired a gem of a MLB debut against the Brewers (6 IP – 3 H – 0 ER – 0 BB – 7 K).
- Jon Duplantier (RH/ARI) – Big believer in this kid and think he can hold on to this rotation spot all season. His first attempt was a forgettable performance (5 IP – 6 H – 3 ER – 2 BB – 4 K), and facing the Dodgers this week is no walk in the park. But with Luke Weaver sidelined, he’s in the rotation, and when someone needs to be pushed out, there’s a much greater chance that’s Taylor Clarke and not Duplantier.
- Daniel Mengden (RH/OAK) – A 15-team streamer who faces the Angels at home this week then lines up for @ TB / v SEA next week. Could certainly be dicey, but perhaps you’re in a pinch.
- Anibal Sanchez (RH/WAS) – Back in the rotation and faces the White Sox at home this week. Threw a gem in his return from the IL in SunTrust against the Braves (6 IP – 1 H – 0 ER – 7 K).
- Erick Fedde (RH/WAS) – Has looked good so far (2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) and is streamable @ SD this week. Then he should line up against ARI at home next week.
- Touki Toussaint (RH/ATL) – Possible stash in 15’s if you see him cracking the rotation at some point soon, especially with Kevin Gausman struggling.
- Daniel Ponce de Leon (RH/STL) – Not sure if Cabrera makes it beyond this week, nor do I see Michael Wacha reclaiming this rotation spot any time soon. Only works as a 15-team stash on rosters where you don’t have many injury stashes already.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: CHC, BOS, TBR…HOU, LAA, OAK, SEA, TEX (every AL West team)
Teams with 5 games: CHW
Doubleheaders: BOS/TB (Sat, 6/8), OAK/TEX (Sat, 6/8)
RENTALS
No Coors Field (COL), Great American (CIN) or Camden Yards (BAL) this week, so it is a bit tougher to identify optimal schedules.
Astros – A seven-game series where they should face three lefties in Seattle and then a three-game series against the Orioles (Hess/Ynoa/Bundy?). With Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz all still sidelined, there is plenty of playing time to go around for these secondary bats and recent call-ups. Jake Marisnick cooled off last week (1 HR, .143) and in NFBC, you can keep him around for that first half-week with 3 LHP. Derek Fisher has value in 15’s as a leadoff man against righties, but you can’t use him that first half-week. Possibly similar for speedster Tony Kemp (weekend only). Time to promote Kyle Tucker, no?
Angels (FADE) – Seeing four lefties this week isn’t great news for the Halos, who are a bottom-10 offense against them. Shortstop David Fletcher is one of the team’s better hitters against lefties, but even he’s been cooled off against them considerably (.127 ISO / .283 wOBA). Someone like recent call-up Cesar Puello might see some extra playing time this week, while Tommy La Stella could be benched in all formats. The only Angel somewhat streamable besides Trout and maybe Fletcher/Puello is Albert Pujols (.233 ISO).
Brewers – The Brew-Crew play six at home (MIA/PIT), and most of these offensive pieces should be in your lineups this week (Yelich, Moustakas, Cain, Grandal, Hiura, Braun). The first basemen (Aguilar vs. LHP, Thames vs. RHP) will be split again with Milwaukee facing 4 RHP / 2 LHP so no big advantage starting either. Orlando Arcia (.333/.455/.611 last week) is streamable in 15-teamers (80% owned in NFBC Main Event).
Mets – With several of their best lefty bats on IL (Nimmo, Cano, McNeil, Lowrie – SW), this is a predominantly right-handed lineup that is projected for two lefties in the first series (Bumgarner, Pomeranz) before three games at home against some suspect Rockies’ RHPs (Senzatela / Lambert / Hoffman?). First baseman Dominic Smith (.411 wOBA vs. RHP) has started his last two games against RHP in left field and should see a few starts hitting near the top of the lineup.
Giants (FADE) – Make sure you’re benching all of your SF bats this week with a very tough six-spot, facing two of baseball’s best staffs. At the moment, they line up for Syndergaard-Wheeler-deGrom followed by Kershaw-Hill-Buehler.
Nationals – This group is a top-five offense against left-handed pitching led by Anthony Rendon (.385 ISO, .470 wOBA), Trea Turner (.182 ISO, .435 wOBA), Juan Soto (.267 ISO, .413 wOBA) and Howie Kendrick (.264 ISO, .395 wOBA), and they’re projected to line up against four lefties this week. Kendrick is available in about 20% of NFBC Main Event 15-teamers and needs to be owned in all formats this week upon further notice. Brian Dozier has been riding pine the last two games (Wed/Fri) and Matt Adams mainly starts against RHP. That means Kendrick should mix in between 1B and 2B and play most of the games this week. Also, expect to see backstop Kurt Suzuki (.333 ISO / .465 wOBA) and Yan Gomes (.182 / .399) share starts this week, as both hit lefties much better than righties. Gomes hasn’t produced much at all this season but does have a 23% walk rate against LHP compared to Suzuki’s 4.5%. On the flip side, Suzuki has a 39% Hard Hit rate against them compared to Gomes’ 23.5%. Either way, I’d play either of them this week if you’re having a tough time with catchers.
Yankees – A very nice schedule for them this week with three games at one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball (TOR – Rogers Centre) facing some suspect starters (Richard / Thornton / E-Jax). They’ll then luckily avoid the Indians’ best SPs (Carrasco/Bauer stink now anyways) and will face rookie Zach Plesac and Jefry Rodriguez.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Curt Casali (RH/CIN), Will Smith (RH/LAD)
Not many viable additions at the position this week. Those who have been successfully streaming the likes of Roberto Perez (two weeks ago) and Pedro Severino (last week) because of this column’s recommendation can easily throw them into the fire. I have Casali listed here, but I wouldn’t bid more than a buck or two on him because there’s a 5% chance he has better results this week than he did last week, as most of the production came on a single day (homer, 4 RBI). Though, he has started three of the last five games over Barnhart. Smith is a one-week rental, as I’d imagine he’s sent back down when Austin Barnes is back (quick IL trip). He’s getting some big-league experience and is a very good defensive catcher who never truly hit well in the minors until this season. Only way he’s sticking is if somehow Russell Martin gets hurt. That said, I do believe he’ll be a big part of this team down the stretch and possibly makes their playoff roster.
Corner Infielders – Colin Moran (LH/PIT), Dom Smith (LH/NYM), Jeimer Candelario (SW/DET), Todd Frazier (RH/NYM)
Moran has been recommended here two weeks in a row and is still just 29% owned in the Main Event. Over that span: .320 – 3 HR – 13 RBI, which is among the league leaders at the position. The Pirates face five RHP this week. I mentioned Smith because he’s getting work in left field and has been playing against RHP with so many injuries on this squad. Candelario is back after a quick trip down to Triple-A, and hopefully, he’s fixed whatever has ailed him. Frazier is someone I don’t trust in the slightest. He’s hitting .367 this past week and has been playing. A one-week rental at best, and even then, he could always hurt your average.
Middle Infielders – Orlando Arcia (RH/MLW), Kevin Newman (RH/PIT), Luis Rengifo (SW/LAA), Adeiny Hechavarria (RH/NYM)
Basically, a list of guys who’ve had great weeks but we can’t particularly trust. Not interested in any of these guys in 12-teamers, though, I am intrigued by Newman, who has been leading off these last few days. I’ve begrudgingly had Newman on my Main Event squad these past two weeks because of very few options at MI in my league, and he rewarded me over the last few days with 7 RBI, going 10 for his last 30. Good plate patience and he has some speed (28 SB in Triple-A last year) but has swiped just one in 93 PA so far. Rengifo is the other speedster here who hasn’t been running, but he’s in the lineup almost every day and has scored a run in four straight.
Outfielders – Derek Fisher (LH/HOU), Tony Kemp (LH/HOU), Cesar Puello (RH/LAA), Greg Allen (SW/CLE), Mike Yastrzemski (LH/SFG), DJ Stewart (LH/BAL), Garrett Cooper (RH/MIA)
Not a pretty list to go nuts for, but a few rentals we could use. Fisher will hold it down as the Astros’ lead-off guy against RHP while Springer is out, and Kemp is playing 2B in absence of Altuve, but only against RHP. As I mentioned in the ‘rentals’ section, not a great first-half week for them with those LHP, but it opens up on the weekend against the Orioles. Puello is a 28-year-old career minor-leaguer, but don’t be fooled by the thunderous bat we’ve seen. A simple single-digit bid will suffice.
Allen is back with the Indians and played almost every day this week but is struggling at the plate (.153/.215/.305) and has yet to attempt a swipe. Just three in Triple-A in fact, in 97 PA after swiping 21 in 91 games with the big club last year. Worth a bid in 15’s hoping that he’ll run. Carl’s grandkid Yastrzemski was overlooked in last week’s bids since he was never a big prospect, to begin with, and most folks were either licking their chops after spending in FAABapolooza the previous week or were spending resources on Biggio and K.Cron. Yaz was hitting .316 with 12 HR in 40 games prior to promotion and has been an everyday staple in the lineup, hitting out of the two-hole against RHP. Not worth all that much unless you’re desperate, and as I mentioned earlier, it’s not the week to load up on Giants bats.
Stewart might see decent-sized bids this week based on pedigree (former first-rounder with speed and power), but he’ll need a big weekend to see a price bump. Five strikeouts and just three singles through his first 12 PA. There are no sure things in this outfield (Keon Broxton / Dwight Smith Jr. are the other starting OFs for now), and at some point, Cedric Mullins will be back up, but he’s currently struggling in Triple-A. Another interesting prospect, Austin Hays, is struggling in Double-A so he’s even further away. Stewart is safe for now. As for the Marlins’ Cooper, he’s just someone who should be owned in 15-teamers if you need an outfielder.
Here’s a quick cheat sheet on those OFs:
- Stewart (BAL) – biggest upside, power/speed
- Fisher (HOU) – rental, but don’t spend too much
- Kemp (HOU) / Allen (CLE) – speed plays but don’t break the bank
- Cooper (MIA) – the most solid add of the group
- Yaz (SFG) – not great schedule this week but has staying power in 15’s
- Puello (LAA) – single-digit bid only
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues
Catchers – Mitch Garver (RH/MIN), Elias Diaz (RH/PIT), Kurt Suzuki (RH/WAS)
All three should already be owned, and if anyone dropped Garver in your league, make sure to add him immediately, as he’s on a rehab stint and should be back soon. What Garver did prior to injury is clearly unsustainable, but it’s worth noting no catcher has a higher ISO (.418) than his this season. The only other two catchers with an ISO above .300 are Gary Sanchez (.382) and Jason Castro (.317).
Corner Infielders – Kyle Seager (LH/SEA), Gio Urshela (RH/NYY), Christian Walker (RH/ARI)
Seager has been mostly hitting second against righties. Urshela has a nice schedule and playing every day. The Dbacks’ demoted Kevin Cron, and Walker’s bat finally looks more like the one we saw in April this past week so I’d snag him back up.
Middle Infielders – Lourdes Gurriel (RH/TOR), Niko Goodrum (SW/DET; also CI and OF), Willy Adames (RH/TBR)
Not sure what some people were thinking, letting Gurriel not get bid on in FAAB this past week, but he’s someone who should be owned in 12-teamers. He’s available in 37% of NFBC OCs. A very disappointing season for Goodrum so far, but he’s among the league leaders in hard-hit rate and sprint speed and continues to lead off every day. Perhaps Friday night’s performance (5-for-5, 2 HR) is a sign of his bat awakening. Adames doesn’t hit for much power yet but has three homers this month and has been hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Outfielders – Bryan Reynolds (SW/PIT), Albert Almora (RH/CHC), Chris Taylor (RH/LAD), Harold Ramirez (RH/MIA), David Fletcher (RH/LAA)
A very light list of options this week. The rookie Reynolds continues to swing a hot bat. In fact, the only outfielder in baseball with more hits than Reynolds these past 10 days is Juan Soto. The rest of these are just guys you can stream if you’re in a pinch for your OF5 spot.
