How’s it going, everyone? I got a lot of feedback over the last couple weeks about my Superflex mock draft, most notably, that it wasn’t 1QB. While I do think the principles are the same, I figured running through one of my own 1QB dynasty rookie drafts, giving my thoughts on picks and my own selections, would be a productive practice. I know a lot of you have rookie drafts that are either currently going on or about to start, so hopefully, this bridges the gap.
Before we begin — details on the league
- Draft Start Date: May 1st
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 30 (36 in the offseason)
- Best Ball
- Starting Lineups: 9 Starters
- QB: 1
- RBs: 2-4
- WRs: 3-5
- TEs: 1-3
This is going to be a quick one. If you want analysis on the players, I gave FULL breakdowns of each fantasy relevant prospect in the 2019 class here:
Round One
This is a pretty standard round one, beyond A.J. Brown. If you’ve been subbing for a while, you know my thoughts on Brown. Between special production at a P-5 school from early in his career, to his 90th percentile speed score, there simply isn’t anything negative to view about his profile. He’s the clear 1.04 to me in 1QB leagues, and I couldn’t care less that he went to the Titans. Yes, year one could be ugly, but projecting into year two and beyond, there’s no way to know what the Titans offense will look like then. Also, I have Brown as a better prospect than Corey Davis when he was coming out of Western Michigan, if that gives perspective. That top nine has solidified in most drafts I’ve done, and pursuing the lower end of that grouping (1.07-1.09) is highly advisable. Between D.K. Metcalf, Parris Campbell, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson, we’re getting a star fantasy asset.
I’m not a fan of taking Hakeem Butler in round one of a rookie draft, but if your convictions on him being an outlier are strong, I don’t HATE snagging him at start of round two.
N’Keal Harry is the 1.01 by a wide margin (for me). Any advantage Josh Jacobs has in year one will be fully negated by year two, three and beyond. Harry is incredibly special and landed at ninth in my top 10 WR prospects since 2010.
Round Two and Three
Again, this echoes the mock draft. Overall I felt this was the best 1QB draft to display because the drafted in this league followed what I’d do relatively closely. Waiver Wire players were also draft-able in this draft, so that’s why you see Demarcus Robinson at 3.05 ( I don’t agree with that idea, at least not that early). Considering the Todd Gurley bad knee drumbeat getting louder, there’s almost no chance Darrell Henderson will be available in the mid-second round anymore, but the rest of this crew is relatively set. There’s a lot of variance in the mid second round right now, between J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella, Damien Harris, and Mecole Hardman. I don’t really have a preference, so whichever falls I’ll be (and have been) targeting. The late second and early third round range, as it is every year, is stocked with highly drafted QBs and TEs. I’m consistently trying to add Dwayne Haskins, Irv Smith, and Jace Sternberger.
Between Devin Singletary, Alexander Mattison and Miles Boykin, your guess is as good as mine, but they’re all going in the same range, and whichever falls, as is the common theme, will be targets of mine. Diontae Johnson went earlier in this draft than his ADP would suggest, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking him there (though I don’t hate it). I’ve seen him sometimes fall to the late third round. That’s a great value if he slips. Jalen Hurd and Terry McLaurin are the two top three round WRs to fall in rookie drafts this year. It’s really easy to get shares of each, and if playing in multiple leagues, those would be MAJOR targets that are coming at very cheap values currently.
The late third round is where I make most of my profits every rookie draft season. As I’ve mentioned millions of times, this is where rubber meets the road with philosophy. Players like Daniel Jones, Kahale Warring, Josh Oliver and Dawson Knox all land in this range in essentially every draft, and can be had for nothing because they aren’t perceived as good prospects. Well, the NFL thought they were good prospects (Draft position matters). It’s tough to expect much from any of these prospects, but stacking three or four of them on the end of a roster will almost guarantee a future contributor. As you’ll see in a minute, Oliver didn’t get selected until the mid-fourth round. He’s all over the place In the late third and early fourth round. But he shouldn’t be slipping past the late third.
Round Four and Five
This is the range where I begin to stop caring about rookie drafts. These are all low odd investments, and while there are certainly players who can fill out a roster in this group, it’s nothing worth getting expectations too high on. I’m fully on board the Drew Sample Train, and while it’s certainly possible he becomes a pure blocking TE, I really like how early the Bengals invested in him.
Other players I like in this group:
- Tony Pollard
- Benny Snell
- Qadree Ollison
- Trevon Wesco
- Will Grier
Again, if curious about my opinion on a player, I wrote about all of them in the positional rankings. If those rankings don’t answer your question, feel free to reach out in the chat!
