Shaun Anderson isn’t stepping up. Archer used to. Can he again? The million-dollar question is… what is wrong with Trevor Bauer? Chirinos and Eflin are solid hurlers, but which one, if either, should be dealt? Flaherty has not met expectations this season. Does that mean he’s been a failure or that you should be bailing on the righty? Sonny Gray has been better this season as his work for the Reds has impressed, at least in some respect. Hamels and Quintana – two lefties on the Cubs who have struggled of late. Porcello has turned things around. Scherzer is suffering from one obvious failing. Straham has looked sharp, but the workload is a concern. Urena is in demand by MLB teams. Should he be in fantasy leagues?
WHAT IS WRONG WITH TREVOR BAUER?
What’s wrong with Trevor Bauer? I’ve been getting that question daily for a while now. Some thoughts. (1) Bauer has had one elite season. (2) His 10.33 K/9 rate would be the second best of his career. His 11.8 percent swinging strike rate would also be the second-best mark of his career. (3) His 1.16 WHIP would be the second-best mark of his career. Is he really that far off? Well…
(A) The walks are a huge problem, and it starts with pitch one as he’s throwing a strike 55.3 percent of the time. It’s time to face facts. His first pitch strike rate has been under 60 percent in 6-of-7 years if you include this season. Maybe last year’s 63.7 percent mark was/is the outlier? The walks are at 4.23 per nine this season, and that number should recede (the rate has been under 3.35 each of the last three years). (B) Bauer has a 1.17 HR/9 rate this season, which is slightly above his 0.99 career mark. Still, going back to the All-Star break last season the HR/9 rate is 1.01. Again, right on his career average. (C) Bauer has seen his 44+ GB-rate each of the last three years drop all the way to 36.6 percent this season. He’s thrown his slider three percent less than last season, and his curveball six percent less. The slider has been a problem for him. After 4-straight years with a ground ball rate above 44 percent, the slider is coming in at a mere 23.8 percent this season. He’s also given up a 5-year worst on the pitch with a .477 SLG and .769 OPS. The curveball was a dynamite pitcher last season with a .539 OPS, and he’s been even better with it this year at .362. Why he has thrown it less is unclear.
Bauer will be better if he cuts down the walks and starts throwing his slider and curveball more. Still, not likely back to last year’s levels.
Ebola raging in the Congo.
YOUNGISH ARMS
Shaun Anderson has seemingly surpassed Tyler Beede in the pecking order of young righties with the Giants. The rookie has made three starts, covering 15 ineffective innings as he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned). He hasn’t missed bats with an 8.6 swinging strike rate, and he’s not getting anyone to chase anything (28 percent chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone). Through three starts there isn’t anything that stands out as a factor that would suggest adding him in a mixed league.
Yonny Chirinos improved to 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA his last outing. The way he is used, after the Opener, aids his chances of winning a game. He’s also pitched pretty well, though not to the level that his ERA suggests (SIERA 4.17, xFIP 4.27). Chirinos doesn’t miss enough bats for my liking (6.79 Ks per nine), and he’s allowing a 38 percent fly ball rate leading to a lot of homers (nine in 55.2 innings). Solid pitcher, but not the ratio enhancer he appears to be.
Zach Eflin’s last three starts have resulted in a terrible 4.30 BB/9 rate, 1.86 K/BB rate and a 1.84 HR/9 mark. Been warned have you, with Eflin. He doesn’t miss enough bats, and allows too many fly balls to consistently dominate opponents. Through 321.1 career outings he’s allowed 1.51 homers per nine, has a 6.72 K/9 rate and a 1.05 GB/FB ratio. Still time to sell though, before that ERA starts to climb.
Jack Flaherty has missed the hype, and then expectation, train. There’s still been a decently solid effort posted by JK though, despite that. He has 9.80 strikeouts per nine, a full point lower than last season, but still a good mark. He’s also cut his walk rate by half a point per nine, so he’s actually moved the needle from his 3.08 K/BB ratio last season to 3.25 this year. Further, his first pitch strike rate is up three percent, and his swinging strike rate is only down 1.1 percent at 12.3. He’s been dominant at home (.238 wOBA), but he needs some work on the road (.366 wOBA).
Matt Straham struck out a career best 10 batters in his last outing against the Yankees, a big number for a guy who entered the game having just seven strikeouts his last 11 innings. That said, he did allow two homers for the second straight outing, though both efforts qualified as quality starts. In fact, he has thrown a QS in 6-of-7 outings. That run of success has quietly dropped his ERA to 3.21 and his WHIP to 1.13. The K/BB is 4.64 as well. He’s been pretty sharp. He’s still gonna see his inning curtailed, and that’s the biggest concern. Straham threw 75.2 innings last season, and he’s never thrown 125-innings in a season. Be aware of that if you own Straham.
This is a Guinness World Record? I mean, really?
VETERANISH ARMS
Chris Archer has made three outings since returning from injury. Hard to believe he’s looked even worse than he was before the injury as he’s 0-3 with an 8.56 ERA, a 6.99 FIP and a 6.79 xFIP. He also allowed two more unearned runs, and was beaten for three homers. Toss in 12 walks in 13.2 innings, and you have a guy who is just a mess. With each outing it grows harder to have any confidence that he’s going to rise about league average this season. Hell, his owners would settle for that level of pitching at the moment.
Sonny Gray has made 11 starts for the Reds, and he’s been effective (3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.29 K/9). Gray has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 6-straight, and just once in 11 outings has he allowed four earned runs (April 23rd). He’s also kept the ball in the yard allowed three homers in seven outings. If he continues to do that, he’s gonna be fine. He does pitch in a park that is a great offensive environment, and as the weather heats up, perhaps the concerns will grow? Gray has also thrown 135-innings just once in three years, and that 3.54 BB/9 rate points to the potential for blow up efforts to occur.
Cole Hamels has thrown just eight innings his last two allowing 15 hits and nine runs. He’s been solid on the campaign, but when a 35 year old suddenly struggles some folks get nervous. The GB/FB of 1.88 is a career best, and he’s right on his career K-rate. He’s also smack dab on the homer per nine rate. The walks, there’s a concern. For 9-straight years he walked less than 2.70 batters per nine. The last three years the mark has been over three, and it’s currently at a career worst 3.73 per nine. He’s been at 9.8 against lefties and 9.4 BB-rate against righties, so it hasn’t mattered. He’s just walking too many guys and will have to whittle that number down.
Jose Quintana allowed six runs, five earned, last time out, ending an 8-start run of some damn impressive work (2.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB and 0.72 HR/9). Love the fact that the ground ball rate is up to 50 percent, a career best.
The Jose Urena trade rumors are heating up. He’s just a guy, but with so many teams struggling to find a guy who can just throw some innings, he’s an option. Over his last four starts he owns a 2.08 ERA as he’s tossed a QS each time out. He also has a mere 2.00 K/BB ratio, and that 4.85 K/9 rate is awful in that time. He’s certainly no more than just a guy in mixed leagues, and that means he is just a streaming option.
I like to plank too, but 4:20… as in hours and minutes? Wow.
Rick Porcello has been better of late. He’s allowed five homers his last five games, and he’s struck out five or fewer guys in 4-straight outings though, so it’s not all pink ponies. He’s thrown a QS in 3-straight and in 6-of-7 outings. He’s stabilized. He’s an every outing starting. He’s not a star, but he’s solid.
Max Scherzer is 2-5. It has nothing to do with him as the bullpen, in his starts, has an 11.71 ERA, the worst in baseball for a pitcher with five starts. Moreover, the bullpen has allowed two or more runs in 9-of-12 starts this season, so it’s not just a couple of blown outings that have dogged Scherzer. They have stunk virtually every time he’s been on the hill. He’s fine. Everything else isn’t.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
