The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)
Swift is the latest in line for Georgia RBs. Between Todd Gurley, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb there’s been an incredibly prolific RB in the Georgia backfield for closing in on a decade now, and that certainly won’t change in 2019. Swift isn’t the imposing size of Chubb and Gurley but being listed at 5 foot 9 and 215 pounds is quite sturdy. Swift has seen significant playing time since his true freshman season (2017) and has done nothing but making exciting plays. In his two year career, Swift has 2,117 yards from scrimmage and is averaging a very solid (especially in the SEC) 7.2 yards per touch. Most notably on his production profile, Swift accumulated 32 receptions and 297 receiving yards in 2018, becoming (arguably) one of the best receiving down RBs in the nation. Swift was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, and while he had to wait his turn in his Freshman season, things are going according to plan with him becoming a first-round caliber prospect. There’s no injury or off-field concerns that we’re aware of at this time, and essentially, Swift is a guaranteed top two round selection in the 2020 draft.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 1st-2nd Round – While Nick Chubb had a major injury to his name after entering the 2018 draft, he was certainly a better prospect (Based on production profiles and athletic testing) than Swift projects to be. With that said, If Swift continues on the pace he’s on and improves on 2018 (from a volume standpoint), he’s likely to lean into the first in 2020.
Similar Prospect(s): Sony Michel, David Wilson
Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
Akers has been one of the tougher careers to track over the last two seasons. An incredibly talented recruit, Akers came to Florida State and it was assumed he’d have a similar impact that former Florida State RB (and now Minnesota Vikings RB) Dalvin Cook did. Unfortunately, Florida State has fallen apart, both offensively and as a football program, over the last two seasons. The offensive line completely failed Akers in 2018, allowing defenders consistently into the backfield, and causing athleticism and talent to be wasted on turning negative gains into zero yard gains. Production is production, and in almost all scenarios a college skill position player can figure out ways to break through and create big plays, but this situation was simply was too far gone. Akers averaged 4.4 yards per rushing attempt in 2018, terrible for college football standards, never-mind a potential top prospect. Akers also accumulated 23 receptions, turning that into only 145 receiving yards (6.3 per reception). What this does is create a very, very confusing cloud over Akers projection to the NFL. Talent is clear, but will his situation deter some NFL teams from thinking he’s a top prospect? I’d say that’s a fair concern.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 2nd-3rd Round – Akers is unquestionably talented, and perhaps there’s an avenue where he can pull a Josh Jacobs, but using historical thresholds, unless things at Florida State change considerably, 2019 will be more of the same production-wise.
Similar Prospect(s): Montario Hardesty
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, USC)
St. Brown produced in a very crowded depth chart, in his freshman season. Between Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Vaughns, there was legitimate competition or targets on the USC depth chart. Both are future NFL draft picks (though there’s some variance on where they’ll go), and it’s very important to notice St. Brown broke through, as a true freshman, and actually even out-produced Vaughns (750 receiving yards for St. Brown, 674 for Vaughns). St. Brown isn’t a big WR (listed at 6 foot 1 and 195 pounds), but he’s certainly big enough to bully smaller defenders, and muscle up in contested catch situations. St. Brown is likely to develop, and his Junior season (when both Pittman and Vaughns are gone) is where we’ll see just how dominant he can be. There’s also the added difficulty of St. Brown dealing with a bad QB situation. While pretty much anything will be better 2018, another year of below average QB play could stunt production profile growth for St. Brown as a sophomore.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Too Early To Tell – There’s simply not enough information, but garnering legitimate snaps at a P-5 school in a True Freshman season is a great start.
Similar Prospect(s): N/A
Rakeem Boyd (RB, Arkansas)
To be frank, Arkansas was a disaster in 2018. Not only did they have one of the worst Power-5 conference defenses in the nation, but their offense was also consistently ineffective. Arkansas ended 2018 with 17 passing TDs and 19 interceptions, along with 2307 total passing yards. The Passing game? Terrible. The defense? Terrible. The other RBs in the running game? Terrible. Boyd was one of the (very) few bright spots for Arkansas in 2018, and he’s worth reviewing. While he doesn’t have the same athleticism or burst as the previous Arkansas RB prospect to wear jersey number 5 (Darren McFadden), he does bring a tall and lanky frame (listed at 6 feet and 200 pounds) to the table, and swiftly glides through running lanes. As a sophomore (JUCO recruit), Boyd produced 899 yards from scrimmage and led the team in that category. Boyd does a good job of falling forward and had some solid games against stiff competition. So far so good for Boyd, and if he can get ANY help from his teammates in 2019, things could really open up for him from a production standpoint.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 3rd-4th round – Boyd simply doesn’t have the supporting cast to project as a top two round prospect, at least at this stage. If things change considerably for Arkansas in 2019 then this can be amended, but it was really, really ugly in 2018. Boyd should continue to produce and NFL teams will find his game appealing.
Similar Prospect(s): Glen Coffee
