Back in the preseason of 2019 Fantasy Baseball, Jose Ramirez was roundly regarded a top-5 overall selection. The NFBC ADP info had him as the third player off the board (Jeff Mans and I didn’t by any means say pass on Ramirez, but at least we selected another third sacker as a better third overall selection back in January). With a 3-year run where he averaged .300-26-88-100-24 per season, and coming off one of the most impressive efforts by a third sacker in recent memory (.270-39-105-110-34), it made all the sense in the world. Alas, his effort to date, short of the steals category, has been an unmitigated disaster the should remind folks that only about a third of all first round picks return first round value (something I put on replay every spring, yet all anyone wants to talk about is first round selections it seems). As we sit here with the calendar almost all the way through the month of May, what are we looking at with Jose Ramirez the rest of the season?
26 years old
Bats/Throws: Both / Right
Height/Weight: 5’9”, 190 lbs.
Position:
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
Career |
Minors |
335 |
.304 |
13 |
126 |
230 |
101 |
.766 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2013 |
MLB |
15 |
.333 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
.929 |
|
2014 |
MLB |
68 |
.262 |
2 |
17 |
27 |
10 |
.646 |
|
2015 |
MLB |
97 |
.219 |
6 |
27 |
50 |
10 |
.631 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
152 |
.312 |
11 |
76 |
84 |
22 |
.825 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
152 |
.318 |
29 |
83 |
107 |
17 |
.957 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
157 |
.270 |
39 |
105 |
110 |
34 |
.939 |
|
2019 |
MLB |
52 |
.197 |
4 |
15 |
17 |
12 |
.593 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.278 |
21 |
76 |
94 |
25 |
.824 |
The last two seasons (2017-18) Ramirez was 4th in baseball in OPS (.948), 7th in wOBA (.394) and 7th in wRC+ (146) amongst players with at least 800 plate appearances.
THE SKILLS
What the hell is going on here? Not since Andruw Jones just stopped hitting has an elite level performer, for no apparent reason, simply vanished offensively.
Let’s try to figure this thing out, and remember, Ramirez does not turn 27 years of age until September.
I’ve heard some folks suggest PEDs. Oh yeah, the rumors are out there, and it led to a big story in late May of last season that he and the team had to address. That was May 29th of 2018. What are Ramirez numbers since that time?
His slash line since the report is .236/.357/.442.
Remember, his slash line 2016-18 was .300/.375/.533.
Ramirez was cleared by MLB, so I’m assuming it’s merely bad timing, the slump and all, but I would be remiss as a reporter of data if I didn’t put the information out here.
A larger issue is that his bat has just gone silent, and for a long time.
It’s not just May this year
It’s not just the start of this season.
It’s the second half last year.
Here are Ramirez numbers since the 2018 All-Star Game. Over 115 games and 501 plate appearances Ramirez owns a pathetic, and that’s not hyperbole, slash line of .208/.335/.366. In fact, he has an 88 wRC+ suggesting he’s been 12 percent worse than a league average player at producing runs.
So, what is going on?
1 – His batted ball profile has some good, and some bad in it.
EXIT VELOCITY: For the last five years Ramirez has an 87.8 mph exit velocity against the league average of 87.4. That said, the last three years the mark was between 88.0 and 88.9 mph. This season the mark is 88.5 percent, or the same as usual.
HARD-HIT RATE: The last five years Ramirez owns a 32.4 percent hard-hit rate versus the league average of 34.2 percent (defined as the percentage of baseballs hit 95-mph). The last two years the rate was 34.7 and 35.1 percent. Obviously, his current mark of 29.6 is a significant drop.
BARREL RATE: Ramirez posted a career best mark of 8.5 percent last season. This year the rate is down at 6.3 percent. Still, his current mark is well above his 5.0 percent career rate.
LAUNCH ANGLE: Ramirez has increased his launch angle every season of his career. Last year he posted his first mark above fifteen percent at 18.8 percent. This season, the mark has gone even higher at 21.7 percent. Amongst players with at least 100 batted ball events, that’s a top-5 mark in baseball. Is that really ideal for Ramirez? Probably not.
PULLED BALLS: Last season Ramirez pulled 50 percent of his batted balls. This season, the mark is 41 percent. For his career the rate is 44 percent. The rate is down a bit, a three-year low, but it’s not a massive drop.
FLY BALLS: The little fella keeps jacking up the old launch angle with each successive season. The result is a fly ball rate that has gone from 28.4 percent in 2014 to 45.9 percent in 2018. In each of the last four seasons in that timeframe the rate went up. For the fifth straight year the mark is up in 2019, this time to 48.1 percent. Nearly half his batted balls are ending up in the air. This has become an issue for him with the way that teams are shifting him (more on that below).
HOMER TO FLY BALL RATIO: Ramirez posted a 6.1 and 6.0 percent HR/FB ratio in 2015 and 2016. The last two years the mark was greatly elevated at 14.1 and 16.9 percent. Expecting a mark around 15 percent this season would have been immanently reasonable. Alas, he’s turned back the clock to 2014 with a mark of 5.3 percent that’s laughable low.
GROUNDBALL TO FLY BALL RATIO: The mark has plummeted from 1.67 in 2014 down to 0.73 last season. Each year in that period the mark went down. Ramirez has further plumbed the depths this season dropping the rate to 0.67. When you stand 6’3” and weigh in at 225 lbs., sure. When you’re the size or Ramirez, is this really a smart thing? The answer is self-evident.
INFIELD FLY BALLS: Here are the percentage of Infield Fly Balls he has hit each year (IFFB/Fly balls): 2016 (9.8), 2017 (9.7), 2018 (13.0) and 2019 (11.8). The mark is slightly down from last season so it’s not to blame for his struggles this season.
BABIP: The mark is .287 for career. The last three years he’s been at .333, .319 and .252. This year he’s at .219.
2 – The impact of the shift has been significant.
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
FB-Rate |
Events |
|
2016 |
.452 |
.444 |
.565 |
26.2 |
64 |
|
2017 |
.368 |
.357 |
.579 |
42.7 |
98 |
|
2018 |
.233 |
.228 |
.332 |
46.4 |
237 |
|
2019 |
.207 |
.205 |
.252 |
47.7 |
112 |
Teams really started to shift against Ramirez last season, and the results showed a start down turn from the previous two efforts. This season, his performance has worsened. As teams shift against him, he continues to lift the ball more and more. It’s not working. Not just that, Ramirez has also seen the rate of usage of the shift increase this season.
3 – The walks have gone down.
Last season Ramirez posted a career best 15.2 percent walk rate. In fact, he walked more than he struck out leading to a massive 1.33 BB/K ratio, the best mark in baseball. This year the walk rate is down to a still impressive 11.7 percent, but his BB/K ratio has dropped to 0.74. That mark just so happens to be a direct match for 2016 (0.71) and 2017 (0.75). Starting to seem likely that the 2018 mark was an outlier.
4 – The strikeouts have gone up.
From 2015-2018 the K-rate has been between 10.0 and 11.5 percent. This year the mark is up to 15.8 percent. Ramirez has also seen a swinging strike rate that was between 4.2 and 5.4 percent from 2015-18. Yes, the rates are up. No, it’s nowhere close to the danger zone givens that in 2019 the league averages (A) a 23.0 K-rate and (B) an 11.1 swinging strike rate.
5 – Is he chasing pitches?
O-Swing percentage s defined as how often a player swings at pitches outside the strike zone. The league average in 2019 is 30.5 percent. Ramirez has never had a season that high. He also posted a mark of 25.4 percent in 2017 and a career best 22.3 percent in 2018. Those last two numbers make his 27.9 percent mark a bit disappointing, but it’s not as if he’s gone wild chasing pitchers. He hasn’t.
6 – Breaking stuff has been a legitimate challenge for him. Or has it?
Here are his OPS the last few years on various pitches.
|
|
Curveball |
Slider |
Cutter |
|
2016 |
.772 |
.667 |
.973 |
|
2017 |
.684 |
.612 |
.864 |
|
2018 |
.688 |
.717 |
.842 |
|
2019 |
.732 |
.727 |
.705 |
I often here this as the reason why his performance has dipped, that he’s just not picking up the spin on breaking stuff.
Well, his OPS on the curveball this season is a three-year high.
His OPS on the slider is a three-year high.
His work on the cutter is down a good deal.
Really though, the belief that he isn’t producing against breaking stuff doesn’t appear to be supported by the data. In fact, he’s had the most trouble with the fastball and changeup.
|
|
Fastball |
Changeup |
|
2016 |
.894 |
.999 |
|
2017 |
1.081 |
1.189 |
|
2018 |
1.050 |
.814 |
|
2019 |
.489 |
.331 |
The change up has simply vexed him.
7 – The expected stats suggest his performance is down.
Last season he owned an expected batting average of .266.
The mark is .237 this season.
Last season he owned an expected slugging percentage of .474.
The mark is .397 this season.
Last season he owned an expected wOBA of .366.
The mark is .320.
8 – At least he’s running.
The only redeeming quality at the moment, from a fantasy perspective, is his running. Ramirez has two steals in 10 games, that’s 12 on the year, and he’s on pace for 35 thefts.
PLAYING TIME
Batting order shifting has occurred of late with Ramirez. In 2018 Ramirez hit third in every game he started for the Tribe. This season he’s hit third 19 times, but he’s also hit second 19 times, fifth 13 times and 9th once. All thirteen of those fifth spot efforts have come in his last 13 starts as the Indians finally shifted down the order. Have to think it’s possible that he could be dropped a spot or two more if he doesn’t start producing better.
Given his background, past success and overall moderate work of his teammates, it would be utterly shocking to see him benched or dropped to the bottom third of the order.
CONCLUSION
Ramirez is hitting too many balls in the air if you ask me. Worse, his HR/FB rate has dipped precipitously as the fly ball rate has increased, and that’s impacting his BABIP and his batting average. He’s also seen his K-rate increase, not to dangerous levels or anything, but increase nonetheless. His hard-hit rate is down as well, but the biggest concern might be that he’s simply not hitting the fastball or changeup. He’s just out of sorts at the moment. If this was a recap of 3-4 weeks, we’ve been there before and seen that. But when we’re talking about 500+ plate appearances with pretty much craptastic production, you have to be concerned.
Ramirez isn’t going to live up to preseason expectations.
Ramirez age and skill set suggest a rebound, but we’re just not seeing it.
The question is – what do we get out of him the rest of the way?
I’ll be honest and say, I’m not sure.
There’s enough here to think that a significant rebound should come. Sometimes though, strange things happen. Guys fall into slumps, and sometimes the do last for a while. Players get in their heads, start pressing/searching, and it can lead to a downward spiral from which there is seemingly no return.
If I owned Ramirez, I would hold. That said, it’s rare that a player bombs this badly for two months and then goes bonkers for four months to even things out. It happens, but it’s rare.
If I didn’t own Ramirez, I would make a play for him, though as a 5th round type of player, and not the elite player he was drafted to be.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
