Two potential slugglers in the Natoinal League are slated to be called by by their respective clubs, and Ray Flowers is ready to break them both down for you. Those men are Kevin Cron of the D’backs and Josh Naylor of the Padres.
As of Thursday night, Kevin Cron of the Diamondbacks led the minors with 21 homers and 62 RBI, while his total of 34 extra base hits was tied for the lead. All of that in 44 games of action mind you. It sounds like the Diamondbacks will call up the slugger to the Major League Roster, so let’s take a look at the skills and the potential play time situation of the younger brother of C.J. Cron.
26 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’5”, 250 lbs
Position: First base
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2014 |
RK, A |
64 |
.291 |
12 |
45 |
54 |
0 |
.854 |
|
2015 |
A+ |
127 |
.272 |
27 |
97 |
74 |
0 |
.808 |
|
2016 |
AA |
127 |
.222 |
26 |
88 |
60 |
3 |
.715 |
|
2017 |
AA |
138 |
.283 |
25 |
91 |
76 |
1 |
.854 |
|
2018 |
AAA |
104 |
.309 |
22 |
97 |
57 |
1 |
.921 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
44 |
.339 |
21 |
62 |
42 |
1 |
1.237 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.278 |
133 |
480 |
360 |
6 |
.855 |
Drafted in the 3rd round in 2011.
Drafted in the 14th round in 2014.
THE SKILLS
Frankly, the numbers on the page tell you one thing, but your eyeballs watching the guy tell you something different.
Cron was not a top-30 prospect in the Diamondbacks organization coming into the year, this according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Think about that. Even though he was coming off a season at Triple-A that produced 22 homers and a .921 OPS – he wasn’t considered a top-30 prospect. That should tell you an awful lot about this slugger. Even as he was posting massive numbers at Triple-A, the scouting community remained unimpressed. Plus, being a big guy at the corner infield spot is cliché enough that this type of body/hitter just kind of blends into the woodwork.
Cron is a big man, and he moves like one (i.e. he’s not overly athletic). His power comes mostly from that mass instead of from bat speed or overall balance through the swing. He has cut down his strikeout rate to the point that he’s currently rocking a 0.82 BB/K rate that is more than double the rate he posted last season. He’s also an extreme fly ball hitter settling in at about 50 percent of his batted balls the last three plus years going skyward, and the rate is a career high 52.7 percent this season. You don’t hit 50 percent of your balls in the air and hit .300. Sorry, doesn’t happen. You also would be wise to note that after five years with a HR/FB ratio of 15 percent that the mark has literally doubled this season to 30.4 percent. That number will also plummet at the big-league level.
Finally, playing in the PCL is known to inflate offensive numbers a bit.
PLAYING TIME
The club has Jake Lamb working his way back from a quad strain, and the hope is that he will be ready at some point next month. He can play either corner spot, but the play had always been for him to man first base. There also isn’t a need for a third baseman with Eduardo Escobar filling that role with aplomb.
Christian Walker stepped in for Lamb and ripped the cover off the ball in April (.307-7-15-16 with a .994 OPS). In fact, he’s currently 14th in baseball in barrel percentage (minimum 100 BBE) and he’s even better in the exit velocity column at 5th in all of baseball. Hell, he’s also fifth in baseball in hard-hit percentage. The dude mashes the ball. Unfortunately, he also imitates a fan swinging and missing everywhere (his K-rate this season is 31.4 percent). Yes he hits the ball hard, but all the swings and misses have finally caught up to him in a major way in May (.197-1-3-8 with a .607 OPS).
Into this steps Cron. An early report suggests that Walker will remain the first baseman with Cron being used as a pinch hitter and occasional starter at first. That said, if Cron rips away in the majors like he did in the minors, a shift could happen. It’s just hard to see Cron being able to do enough of significance to take over at first base to become a fantasy weapon.
CONCLUSION
A big-time power bat that is on full inferno mold, Cron has forced this promotion. That being said, his outlook on playing time is dicey. There’s no obvious way he gets into the lineup daily, unless the club outright benches Walker, and that seems unlikely at this point. With the impending return of Lamb as well, it’s not like things are going to get easier for Cron in the PT department. I see him as an NL-only add and not someone to worry about at the moment in mixed leagues.
FAAB BIDDING: If you’re in a mixed league, it better be a 15-teamer if you’re considering placing a bid. Even so, I’d be in the five percent range with that FAAB bid since his playing time is so up in the air at the moment.
Josh Naylor, Padres
21 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Height/Weight: 5’11”, 255 lbs
Position: First base / Outfield
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2015 |
RK |
25 |
.327 |
1 |
16 |
8 |
1 |
.771 |
|
2016 |
A, A+ |
122 |
.264 |
12 |
75 |
59 |
11 |
.710 |
|
2017 |
A+, AA |
114 |
.280 |
10 |
64 |
59 |
9 |
.761 |
|
2018 |
AA |
128 |
.297 |
17 |
74 |
72 |
5 |
.830 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
45 |
.299 |
10 |
35 |
41 |
1 |
.916 |
|
|
|
434 |
.285 |
50 |
264 |
239 |
27 |
.785 |
In 2019 he was rated the 99th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America.
Drafted in the 1st round in 2015.
THE SKILLS
The first thing you notice is that Naylor is straight out of the Pablo Sandoval mode as a big, big dude, and like many men with this build, his game is more about offense than defense (more on that below). Let’s talk offense.
Heavyset, Naylor rips the baseball with authority. He has plus raw power that is derived from the power he generates through his trunk. For such a big man though he has a relatively flat swing, something that will need to change a bit for him to tap into his latent power. In fact, his career best in homers is 17 and per 500 at-bats he’s averaged a mere 15 big flies. He has hit 10 big flies in 184 at-bats this season as he seems to be starting to unleash the power a bit. That said, we might be looking at a sample size issues as well. Naylor currently has a fly ball rate below 30 percent for the first time at any stop in his career, so he’s living off the 22 percent HR/FB ratio right now. Again, the stroke is actually pretty flat and he will need to make adjustments there to be a 25-30 homer bat at the big-league level.
Truthfully, his overall hit tool has showed itself more in his approach and knowledge of what pitchers are trying to do to him, and how to combat it. He has also a “feel for the barrel” and uses his hand-eye coordination to consistently put good swings on the baseball (he’s hit .298 his last 173 minor league games). He’s also not adverse to using the whole field, though he has been a bit pull happy this season with a 50 percent pull rate, fully 10 percent higher than his mark at Double-A last season. That’s a wee bit concerning in the short term. He can become a bit passive at times with his approach, but it’s hard to complain too much about a guy who has 93 strikeouts and 88 walks his last 173 games (yes, nearly a 1:1 BB/K ratio). At least, I’m not going to complain.
Overall, his approach is strong, but he hasn’t yet tapped into the power that his frame suggests he might possess.
PLAYING TIME
Naylor has played 243 games at first base and 132 in the outfield in the minors (he’s been working diligently in the outfield to improve his game, but a best case scenario might still leave him as a below average defender out there). It’s possible that he will be asked to full the DH role this weekend as the Padres are going to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays. Long-term, it’s hard to see where he fits. He’s not taking over first base from Eric Hosmer who is finally hitting. As for the outfield… from left to right they have Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers and Franmil Reyes. Their fourth option is Manuel Margot, so it would seem that at best, Naylor would be the 5th outfielder since he’s not going to be used for his glove any time late in games. It’s possible that this call up is a short one cause you would think that the Padres wouldn’t want their top-10 prospect wasting away as a bench bat in the bigs (there’s Franchy Cordero lurking somewhere out there too as he works his way back from injury).
CONCLUSION
Like Cron above, it’s hard to envision a spot in the lineup for Naylor on a daily basis. Even if he does somehow end up getting a shot at regular work, his game doesn’t stand out much for a first base / corner infielder as he’s likely to produce in the mold of a Yuli Gurriel type.
FAAB BIDDING: Be very cautious with the bidding and stay under five percent here with Naylor. The Padres have shown a willingness to give youngsters a shot, but remember after Luis Urias started slowly he was banished to the minors where he continues to crush it.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
