Ray Flowers takes a look at the hitters around the infield and the outfield. Bogaerts is surging. Braun can still produce when in the lineup. Bregman and Bryant continue to mash the baseball. Yandy Diaz heads to the IL. Brian Dozier and a glimmer of hope. Hosmer is finally hitting. La Stella is tearing it up, but how much of this is “for real”? Martinez has slowed in St. Louis while Shaw has never gotten going in Milwaukee. Vogelbach has slowed, but he’s still been pretty damn impressive. Almora has been hitting. Really. Broxton gets a new lease on life. Desmond is hitting while Mazara continues to run in place. McCutchen is getting on base a ton. Soto has been somewhat disappointing while Tapia has greatly surpassed expectations.
INFIELD TALK
Xander Bogaerts has a .395/.509/.558 slash line the last two weeks. He has a homer, a steal, nine RBI and 11 runs scored the last 11 games. He’s just really, really good.
Ryan Braun is in an out of the lineup, and he’s never seemingly fully healthy. Still, he’s been pretty solid this year. In fact, he’s been rocking the house the last three weeks with some impressive numbers over 17 games including four homers, 14 RBI, 12 runs and a killer slash line (.411/.484/.661). Oh, he’s also tossed in three steals. Dude is a rough own at times, no doubt, but he still produces when in the lineup.
Alex Bregman started slowly cause of health issues. After homering Wednesday night, he’s on pace for a season of .270-49-110-105-6. He’s not gonna hit that many homers, 40 seems too high, but the average should come up. The dude is just a star.
In 20 games in May, Kris Bryant is rocking a .347-8-19-22 effort. Wait, weren’t folks telling you he would never be elite again? We knew different all along here at FG.
Yandy Diaz has been placed on the DL with a left-hand issue. Diaz has nine homers with a .839 OPS and has had a solid season. However, his effort has been pushed upward a bit too much in some circles. He’s the current owner of a 24 percent HR/FB ratio, and that’s just not sustainable, and without that level of conversion he’s going to see his current homer pace slow appreciably. He’s still hitting 53 percent of his batted balls into the ground, and his five percent launch angle isn’t even half the big-league average. He’s not going to hit 20 homers if those last two numbers do not change.
Brian Dozier last six games… .316/.350/.684 with two homers and six RBI. #Babysteps
Eric Hosmer has been pretty damn solid the last three weeks. He’s had 10 RBI and 11 runs scored over 19 games with a .352/.405/.479 slash line. He’s still a corner infield option in mixed leagues, but he’s back to being a usable piece at least.
Tommy La Stella has 11 homers and 10 strikeouts. That’s wild. He also has a 1.30 BB/K ratio. Crazy time stuff. Some more. (1) La Stella has a 34 percent fly ball rate that is below league average. (2) He has a 38 percent pull rate that is way off the 45 percent rate we posted the last three years. (3) His HR/FB ratio this year is 26.8 percent. That’s three hundred percent above his 8.2 percent career mark. Hell, add the HR/FB ratio of La Stella from his first five seasons, add all those five years up, and you get a HR/FB ratio of 27.2 percent. His mark this season is nearly a direct match for the previous five years… combined. (4) His launch angle is 13.8 percent. His career mark is 12.7, so there hasn’t been much change. (5) He has a 32.5 percent hard-hit rate. That’s a career best but it’s below the league average of 34 percent. The ending here isn’t gonna be pretty, at least in the power department.
Jose Martinez has a solid .313 average and .367 OBP on the year. He’s really slowed of late though with a .234 average and .319 OBP the last 19 games. Oddly, he has only three homers and a .431 SLG over 49 games.
Travis Shaw went 0-for-3 in his first rehab game Wednesday. What will his role be when he returns to Milwaukee? Will he be the backup at second and/or third? Will he push the suddenly hot Keston Hiura to the bench or the minors (Hiura has a decent .788 OPS but that 36 percent K-rate right now is way too high)?
Dan Vogelbach has been compared to Kyle Schwarber based on build, based on the fact that both were worth the Cubs at one point, and based on their overall offensive game. To date, Vogelbach is producing like Schwarber was expected to, but never has. Vogelbach has an impressive 0.81 BB/K ratio, and for a slugger his 22 percent K-rate is a strong mark. His .371 ISO mark is elite (3rd in baseball), as is his 1.021 OPS (8th). Frankly, Danny boy has been an elite producer off the waiver-wire. All of that is true. Here is some further truth; Vogelbach has stopped hitting in May. In 18 games in the seasons second month, Daniel has a poor .197 average and his .300 OBP is lacking as well. He still has a very usable .508 SLG for the month, and that .311 ISO mark is still killer. At this point we’re witnessing a potential breakout, and as long as you understand that isn’t likely to mean 40 homers and 120 RBI, you’re in a good space (think CI option in mixed leagues).
OUTFIELD TALK
Albert Almora has moderate to poor power, but despite that fact he has hit five homers since April 25th. Since that date he’s rocking an impressive .403 wOBA with a 156 wRC+. He also has 14 RBI and 16 runs scored over 24 games. He’s rolling big time. The gravy train will end shortly, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be hopping on the train until it derails.
Keon Broxton has been freed from New York as he’s now part of the Orioles organization. A strong defensive player, Broxton actually, and you can look it up, has a 20/20 season on his big-league resume. The game comes with all kinds of holes, chief amongst them contact issues, but he has the raw talent to impress in stretches. He’s not a mixed league option by any means, but the Orioles are waiting on Diaz/Hays/Mullins right now, so Broxton should get enough work to be a strong target this weekend in AL-only leagues.
Ian Desmond isn’t playing daily, but he is producing. In his last nine outings he’s gone deep twice with a .460 wOBA.
Are there still big-time Nomar Mazara advocates out there? He’s a fine player, but the ASSININE talk about a run to the MVP last year has been proven to be, well, asinine. He has shown no growth over the years. None. I ask for someone to show me growth each year, they never do, and inevitably they fall back on the “but he’s so young” line of thinking. I don’t give a flip about that, and neither should you. Instead of playing the game of hoping, let’s play the game of what is, and that shows Mazara to be a solid, albeit boring outfield option. Here are his OPS marks over the years: .793, .745, .753 and .770 this year. He’s the same guy as he’s always been.
Andrew McCutchen has been hot of late. The last seven games he has two homers, seven RBI, five runs and six walks. His OBP is up to .378 and his OPS sits at .803. It’s been a solid yet unimpressive season to date. Saying that, still need to note that McCutchen is on pace for more than 100 runs, 20 homers and 70 RBI. Solid is as solid does.
Juan Soto has a .268/.333/.439 slash line the last two weeks with a homer in 11 games. Through 42 games he’s on pace for a season of .268-23-95-70-10. That would be a solid effort, but it would also be well off the expectations of the fantasy universe. Soto has seen his uber-impressive BB/K ratio of 0.80 as a rookie regress substantially to 0.50 this season. He has seen his swinging strike rate go up seven percentage points, and that’s one the reasons his batting average is down .039 points. He’s really not that far off, not for me at least cause my expectations for him were reasonable to start the season, but his work to date against righties is a growing concern. That .361 OBP is totally doable, but a .232 average and .404 SLG speak to the fact that he’s just not handling righties that well. So good for his age, but he’s just not elite.
Raimel Tapia has had a strong season to date. Through game action Thursday his slash line is .289/.331/.531 with a .361 wOBA. The nearly 29 percent K rate is a concern though as he’s just not making enough contact which leaves him at the mercy of the BABIP gods, and right now those gods are giving, though they can taketh away at any moment (currently the mark is .383).
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
