Do the Braves have an ace in Mike Soroka? Who is Jake Arrieta at this point? David Price returned, and the results were very positive for the Red Sox lefty. Yu Darvish is improving, sort of. Cashner has been effective. Corbin has been solid, but there are some concerns. Minor has been a major contributor off the waiver-wire. Odorizzi continues to blaze along. Is now the time to sell? Peacock has looked dominant, as seemingly every Astros pitcher has these days.
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IS SOROKA AN ACE?
Mike Soroka dominated the Giants Monday night as I was in attendance. The first point. Start everyone against the Giants. Their offense is simply atrocious right now, and there’s little reason to think that is going to change any time soon. Back to Soroka, he was straight sharp. A few notes.
(1) I got a question yesterday asking me is this who Soroka is? Those kinds of questions always cause my brow to furl. Is he a 1.01 ERA and 0.87 WHIP guy? Since no one ever has been that guy, wouldn’t the question be better phrased as – what are your expectations for Soroka who has been great? (2) Soroka missed more than four months last year with a shoulder issue. This year, he missed time early on with some shoulder issue. I’m not willing to simply forget about that like some people apparently are. At the very least, how many bullets does he have this season? Remember, Soroka has never thrown 155-innings in a season and last year he tossed 56.1 innings. (3) Soroka’s mechanics are not ideal. He’s stiff, locks his front leg, and is about as far from fluid as you’re gonna find. Not overly surprising that he’s dealt with some shoulder issues (his front shoulder is way above his back shoulder as he’s really an uphill thrower – just look at the picture with this article).
(4) Let’s talk performance to date. He gets a ton of grounders at 56.5 percent of batted balls. Still, he has an impossibly low 3.8 percent HR/FB ratio that has led to a mere 0.20 HR/9 rate. There’s just no possible way he keeps up that pace. He would be fortunate if that number only double the rest of the way. He has an impossibly low .203 BABIP. The mark is going way up, at least .060 points. He has an 87.2 percent left on base rate. The rate is likely to fall by 10 percent. Take a look at the advanced measurements. Remember that 1.01 ERA? SIERA has him at 3.87, xFIP at 3.69 though FIP is at 2.89. Realize that his ERA is likely to explode. His 10.4 percent swinging strike rate is below the league average as well.
Soroka has been phenomenal. He won’t be the rest of the way. He could end up being solid from here on out, and his overall numbers could still be terrific, but from May 22nd on, I would be surprised if he was appreciably better than the next guy we’re gonna talk about.
ARRIETA JUST A GUY
We got a call on the Sirius XM show last week about what to do with Jake Arrieta (Monday through Friday 8-10 PM EST). The caller was upset that Arrieta was disappointing. Look, I get it. At the same time, this is likely a situation of not being honest about who someone is. Here’s the straight dope. Arrieta is not a fantasy start. He will not be a fantasy start. He’s not just a guy, but he’s closer to that level than he is to stardom. Just the way it is. Arrieta did look sharp against his former team the last time out (1 ER in 6 IP versus Cubs), but even so, there’s just not much to get excited about. His current 3.63 BB/9 rate is a six-year high and that 7.40 K/9 rate is nearly three-quarters of a point below his career level. Not enough Ks, a few too many walks, and you get a guy who has a WHIP that is slightly above the league average since the start of last season.
PRICE RETURNS AN LOOKS SHARP
David Price had some tendinitis in his elbow and hit the DL as a result. He ended up missing just over two weeks and returned to action against the Jays. He looked sharp in the outing with no walks and two runs allowed over five innings (neither run was earned). In all seven of his starts this season he’s thrown at least five innings, and since his third start of the season he’s allowed seven earned runs in five games. Honestly, he’s been pretty damn sharp with 46 punchouts in 41 innings and his 2.20 walk rate is impressive and have a point below the mark he posted the last two years. The health is an obvious concern after seasons of 74.2 and 176.0 innings for Price, but when he’s on the field he’s still very, very good.
A serious wine blunder.
DARVISH IS AT LEAST IMPROVING
Yu Darvish has walked three batters his last two outings, and that in and of itself is tremendous given his early season struggles. Over those 11.1 innings he’s also punched out 18 batters. Folks, as bad as he has been, he owns an impressive 11.63 K/9 rate which is well above his 11.07 career mark. The walks have been the crusher, and we are certainly trending in the right direction there. He continues to lean heavily on the cutter jumping his 13 percent mark from last season up to 22 percent this season. The pitch has been dominant allowing a mere .261 OPS on 47 plate appearances that have ended on the pitch. There’s still a chance that he gets back to useable in every matchup. In truth, I would be starting him next time out against the Reds.
The Spice Girls bus… a rental? Which one did you have a crush on? I admit, though I was the right age to have one, I never really did.
THE OTHERS…
Dare I say it, but Andrew Cashner is actually rolling a bit. The issue is always, and tell me if you haven’t done this at some point with him the last couple of years, you look at him and just think to yourself ‘I cannot trust him.’ I’m right there with you. Still, over his last nine starts he’s allowed more than three earned runs a single time, and since April 1st he has a 3.40 ERA. He still is walking 3.31 batters per nine and that 2.15 K/BB ratio stinks. He doesn’t miss enough bats, and he walks too many for my liking. Further, over his last 38 starts he’s allowed a whopping 1.48 homers per nine innings. You’re just not going to be successful doing that long-term. I’m still passing.
Patrick Corbin has an 11.8 percent barrel rate, a 90.6 mph batted ball mark, a 10.0 percent launch angle and a 44.7 hard-hit rate. All four of those numbers would be five years worsts. Truth. That said, he’s still pitching pretty damn well with a 3.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.74 K.9 and 3.62 K/BB ratio. That being said two… there are some cracks showing, the biggest being the batted ball data. The first six years of his career his GB/FB ratio was at least 1.47. The last three years the mark has been 1.71 or better. This year we’re way down at 1.09. That’s not a move we want to see with Corbin at all. It’s why his HR/9 rate is up to 1.13 this season, and frankly, it will likely go higher if he continues along his current batted ball pace. Nothing is wrong with Corbin, but he’s not matching last year’s effort and his ratios could worsen a bit.
Mike Minor is the ballz right now. Just once in nine outings has he allowed four runs, and over his last five trips to the bump he’s permitting a total of seven runs to lower his ERA to 2.64. Granted, he’s not that guy. The increased swinging strike rate (11.7 percent this season versus 9.3 percent for his career) is intriguing, and right now he has a .227 wOBA with men on base as he’s just not giving in. His ERA should be in the 3’s though, and it uncertain if he will sustain the K-rate or if he will continue to be able to keep lefties in the park at this elite place (no homers allowed yet to portsiders). Plus, there’s the workload situation as he’s often been on the sidelines over the years. Might as well ride him until he stumbles given that he was basically free to add. He’s totally locked in right now and worth starting in every format.
Jake Odorizzi has allowed three runs once in seven outings. Laughable really. Though his ERA is 2.38, FIP has the mark at 3.24, xFIP at 4.55 and SIERA at 4.37. The best advice with Odorizzi is to parlay him in to a strong return, and to do it like right now.
Brad Peacock allowed seven runs in his first outing of May, but the lat three times out he’s allowed a total of one run with 24 punchouts in 17 innings. Hopefully you didn’t make the mistake of dropping him when he was sent to the bullpen for a tiny bit, or when he had that bad game against the Twins.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
