We are nearly one-third of the way through the regular season and there have been numerous surprises. Both with how some teams have been performing as well as individual production among hitters and pitchers. This week, I’d like to take a glance at the standings as well as some May trends that might foreshadow future production.
American League Recap
The American League East will likely be interesting throughout the rest of the season and the home stretch. The Red Sox have underperformed to date (25-22 record) while the Yankees have quickly crept up on the Rays, though the Yankees have played three more games. You’d have to imagine that the Red Sox will make a push at some point to make this a three-way race for the division, with one of the Wild Card spots easily coming out of here. Though the Orioles remain this division’s doormat and have the league’s worst group of pitchers (32nd ranked 5.36 ERA), they’ve actually been putting up some runs as there are seven teams who have scored less than them this season. Though the Rays have a nice corps of young hitters, their staff badly needs Tyler Glasnow back and my guess is that they won’t be able to hang with the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have a nice staff and producing offensively so one can only imagine what type of summer we’ll see from them when Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius return.
The AL Central is abysmal and, as we correctly surmised, it was a great place for us to target starting pitchers. It’s the Twins’ division to lose as they currently hold a healthy six-game lead on the second-place Indians. The Twins offense have the league’s best ISO (.233) and have been a haven for fantasy goodness with both hitters and pitchers. The Indians will gladly welcome Mike Clevinger back to the rotation eventually and though they very much miss Michael Brantley as a mainstay in their lineup, this offense should eventually pick the pace back up on the backs of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The Royals, Tigers and White Sox will continue to fight to stay out of the division’s cellar though it’s clear that the Royals are the most fantasy-friendly of this bunch. The Tigers are abysmal as only the Marlins have scored fewer runs to date than the Tigers’ 149. The Tigers have the league’s worst run differential (-89) while the Twins are +76.
The AL West is all about the powerhouse Astros, though the A’s, Rangers, Angels and Mariners are keeping things tight among them – all have a win percentage between .460 and .490 and are less than two games ahead or behind one another. The other Wild Card spot likely lies between one of these teams but it’s way too early to speculate exactly which team will rise to that spot. The Mariners (23-27) actually lead the league in both runs scored (267) and runs allowed (302). It’s quite obvious they need some help in this rotation with Yusei Kikuchi their only reliable arm as Marco Gonzales has dropped off and become more inconsistent than last season. They’ll get ancillary pieces like Kyle Seager back and hopefully Hunter Strickland can regain the ninth-inning gig. This is a fun fantasy offense but it’s doubtful that they have enough to power past the likes of the Angels and Athletics.
National League Recap
The National League East should be wide open but the two best teams there are the Phillies (28-19) and the Braves (26-22). Phillies fans are still waiting for Bryce Harper to get comfortable in his new digs but so far he’s been nothing special: a .229 batting average reminds of last season’s slow start and his 30 percent strikeout rate is his worst mark to date (26.3% in 2014). They’ve had a slow start from their ace Aaron Nola and the rest of this rotation is rather boring. The Braves, on the other hand, are fun and exciting with guys like Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr. and the recently promoted Austin Riley. Their rotation has had middle-of-the-pack results but the potential is there with the likes of Mike Soroka (their best arm), southpaw Max Fried and steady veteran (at least this year) Julio Teheran. Getting Mike Foltynewicz back to some semblance of the pitcher he was through last season’s breakout could be one of the difference-makers for this team. The Mets still have those aces and the offense is improved on paper, but it’s unlikely this team finds a way to compete for this division all season. The Nationals are underperforming as well (19-28 record, -32 run differential) but getting Trea Turner back is a big benefit, Anthony Rendon is one of the league’s best hitters and this rotation is still incredibly talented. They could find themselves in the mix at some point.
The NL Central looks like it’ll be a tight race all season. The Cubs have the best record (27-18) with the Brewers not far behind (28-21) and the Pirates, Cardinals and Reds all within striking distance (Reds are last and seven games back of the Cubs). The Cubs have the best run differential in the division (+44) while the Reds are +24, Cards are +20, Brewers +14 and Pirates -44. The Cubs have the division’s most well-rounded offense – so far this month, they lead the majors in walk rate (10.7%) and second in the NL in ISO (.195). Not sure how long the Kyle Schwarber at leadoff experiment will last, but Schwarbs has actually made improvements against left-handed pitching this season (whopping 61.5% hard-hit rate, .389 wOBA vs LHP, .297 vs RHP), though we’ll likely see that differential balance out over the next couple months. The Pirates have oddly pieced together a record over .500 thus far despite the big run differential and plenty of missed games from their best hitters (Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte).
Last, but not least, the AL West, which is basically the Dodgers and then everyone else. The Dodgers have the NL’s best record (31-17), top run differential (+65), best rotation ERA (2.99) and top combined wRC+ (114). The Diamondbacks have impressed through the first third of the season as well, especially against left-handed pitching (NL’s best wOBA – .357 and ISO – .223). The Giants continue to be a mess offensively, and their rotation and bullpen has taken a bit of a step backwards with frequent moving pieces and inconsistency outside of closer Will Smithand a few veteran relievers (Melancon, Watson, Dyson, Gott, Moronta). The Padres should have a bit of life breathed into their offense when exciting rookie phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and surely the Rockies offense will continue to ‘do what they do’ during the warm summer in that Coors Field altitude.
Division Winners (predictions)
AL – Yankees, Twins, Astros (wild cards: Red Sox, Angels)
NL – Braves, Cubs, Dodgers (Phillies, Brewers)
Player Notes
Here’s a little stat pack action for the month of May:
- Not at all shocking but Adalberto Mondesi and Jarrod Dyson lead the majors with nine stolen bases so far this month. Next up? Rookie Nick Senzel with five. Senzel never stole more than 15 bases in any one season in the minors.
- The MLB leaders in walk rate this month is an interesting list: Eric Thames (30.2%), Justin Smoak (25.7%), Kyle Schwarber (22.5%). Ironically, those are three power hitters who have struggled to hit for power as Thames and Smoak have ISO’s under .100 in May and Schwarber is at .157. Smoak has been hitting the ball hard (56% hard-hit rate) but is hitting .137 with a .150 BABIP and just one home run through 51 plate appearances. Smoak is a good buy-low now with a swarm of dingers coming his way, especially with some upcoming series’ in Coors Field (Rockies) and Camden (Orioles). Not only is he showing solid plate patience with that high walk rate but he’s struck out at just a 15.7% clip this month.
- Former Cardinals’ prospect and new Diamondback Carson Kelly was always better known for his defensive skills than his bat. But Kelly has been a sneaky good hitter against southpaws. Just 30 plate appearances, but Kelly has a .462 AVG, .610 wOBA, .538 ISO and 70% HH against them. Last time he faced a lefty, I popped him in my DFS lineup and he rewarded me by going yard. Just one of those guys like Kevan Smithand Elias Diazwho you can stream as your second catcher when you see a handful of southpaws in the coming week.
- Back in April, we saw a few surprise sluggers like Christian Walker, Tim Anderson and Brandon Lowe, all of whom have each cooled off in May. Walker hit .307 with seven homers in March/April and is currently at .206 and just one homer in May. Anderson hit .375 with 21 runs scored in March/April and just .265 with six runs scored in May. Lowe’s production hasn’t actually tailed off, but he’s striking out nearly 40 percent of the time this month (33% last month) and hasn’t had the opportunity to be the team’s leadoff hitter as much lately. He’s a solid hitter with a bright future, but the writing is on the wall for a bit of a dip coming up. As for May surgers, Josh Bell probably tops the list of surprises with his newfound power (.403 with 8 HR and a .448 ISO). Bell may still have a career year but he’s the ultimate sell-high candidate if there ever was one. You’ll start to see that .333 AVG begin to tumble down towards his career mark of .269. Tommy La Stella is another guy I’d consider selling high on if you have an intrigued buyer. Hitting .290 on the season won’t shock me, but what would is if he doubles up on the 11 homers he’s hit so far (previous career high was five back in 2017).
