Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.316 |
.244 |
.319 |
.418 |
.174 |
14.4 |
1.19 |
THE LAST 14 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid with your batters.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters.
The ORANGE marks the crazy bullpen usage of the Rays. Note that their extensive use of the Opener will always doom them in the innings pitched category which will artificially reduce their rankings a bit each time we run BURR.
Second, because of the vagaries of homers allowed over a mere two-week span, the two-week review will remove the impact of the home run.
THE LAST 30 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid meaning the bullpen is doing great in that category.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters as the arms are failing in that category.
PURPLE: Any number that is 25 percent or better than the league average (except for homer runs which is discussed next).
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a huge number would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
Four teams have done a great job limiting the innings: Indians, Dodgers, Twins and Marlins.
The Reds and Yankees have excellent power arms generating tons of swing and misses.
The Indians have been off the charts amazing at limiting the free pass. They haven’t crushed the strikeout column though so their SWIP trails four other teams. Note that the Cardinals have been amazing in the strikeout and walk columns.
The Astros don’t give up homers, and they keep the ball on the ground. Only the Dodgers have a better GB/FB.
