As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based on personal research done through the season.
While this article was mostly for the pre-draft process, I figured it was a solid idea to talk about some of the values and overall market shifts in some of the 2019 rookies after having been involved in most of my rookie drafts for the season. Instead of “stock up” and “stock down,” the format is changing to “value” and “avoid.” For full transparency, these thoughts and opinions are based on seven dynasty rookie drafts. All were 12 teams, with 30-35 roster spots.
VALUE
Tony Pollard (RB, Cowboys) — The injury to teammate Mike Weber is big for Pollard’s potential at year one opportunity. While Pollard will never be viewed as a featured weapon, the chance to be involved is high. Pollard was mostly a kick returner and third down weapon in his time in the Memphis offense, but the Cowboys selecting him in the fourth round is an indication they think he can be more. Pollard has been going in the fifth round of rookie drafts, or in some instances, undrafted. If that’s the case, make sure to grab him with your final selection or off the waiver wire.
Dawson Knox (TE, Bills) — Knox was not a player the market was excited about in rookie drafts. He was consistently going in the fourth round of rookie drafts and less than 5% of auction bids. That is, until teammate Tyler Kroft broke his foot in practice earlier this week. Kroft was projected as the starter to begin the season, despite the Bills spending a third-round selection on Knox. Knox wasn’t a player who got significant snaps as a rookie, and the Bills likely viewed him as a player who would need a few years to develop. But, at this stage, Knox may not have that luxury, which could create a scenario where he gets significant snaps in year one.
Terry McLaurin (WR, Redskins) and Jalen Hurd (WR, 49ers) — McLaurin and Hurd are both consistently drafted last of the top three round WRs. While that’s fair, it creates a situation where they sometimes fall further than they should. McLaurin is hanging around the late third range, and Hurd sometimes slips to the early fourth. In these scenarios, there should be an emphasis to move up to get these players on your roster. Remember, while the prospect themselves aren’t of the special variety, a team took them in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, and the success probability of their draft round makes them important players to pursue. While neither Hurd nor McLaurin project to be serious fantasy contributors in the next couple of seasons, they could make some special plays here and there to create sell-high windows.
A.J. Brown (WR, Titans) — I wrote about this in the rookie WR rankings. Brown falling past 1.07 is a fantasy football sin, and if your league lets that happen, not only pursue a trade-up, MAKE a trade up happen. MANIFEST BROWN ONTO YOUR ROSTER. Brown is just as good of a prospect as JuJu Smith-Schuster was coming out of USC, and while his initial situation isn’t great, things change quickly. There’s no way to know what the Titans are going to look like three years from now. Brown is a prospect who profiles like a featured weapon, and if he comes to fruition as that type of player, situation will take care of itself. Again, if he slips past 1.07 in your rookie draft, you WILL trade up.
This is not a suggestion, this is an order!
Slams table with fist
AVOID
Kelvin Harmon (WR, Redskins) — I don’t understand this one. Harmon slipped to the sixth round of the NFL draft. That means (in a general sense) 32 teams passed on him five times. No team viewed him as a player worthy of selecting in the top five rounds, and there’s nothing to indicate that the Redskins are interested in making him a long term starter. This happens every year with pre-draft favorites. While Harmon certainly has an interesting skill-set, there’s plenty of players to take before him in a rookie draft, specifically in round two. Harmon is a fine player to draft later in rookie drafts, and his profile indicates he has a reasonable chance to outplay his draft round. BUT, the probability is the probability. Since 2000, sixth round WRs have a 3.3% chance at one 800 or more receiving yard season, and only Antonio Brown has produced more than three. That’s two decades with only one player breaking through in a long term way.
