Ray Flowers takes a look at the bump. Alcantara is coming off a shutout. Does it matter? Is Buehler all the way back? How have things gone in Anaheim for rookie Griffin Canning? Eickhoff has hit a speed bump with the Phillies. Which of the righties, Fiers and Gausman, should you be targeting? Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals – is he worth a look? Kikuchi has looked solid to this point with the Mariners. Reynaldo Lopez – too many fly balls and too much inconsistency. Corbin Martin of the Astros – an update. Roark is actually getting outs. Seriously. Woodruff has been impressive of late, but there is one issue he needs to address.
Sandy Alcantara threw a complete game shutout against the Mets the last time out. He was dominant with eight strikeouts, just one walk and two hits allowed. There is no disputing that he has a big arm. The issue continues to be consistency. He’s done better with the free pass of late walking three batters in two games, but that’s still nine walks in three outings (4.08 walks per nine this season). Despite the strong K effort versus the Mets, Sandy has just 6.11 strike outs per nine and that just isn’t gonna get it done. Further, the guy has allowed six homers his last five outings. He’s still not much of a sure bet, in any format, despite that last effort.
Walker Buehler has allowed one run his last two outings with 14 strikeouts and one walk. His last three outings he’s walked one with 22 punchouts over 20 innings. The strikeouts are up to 46 in 49.1 innings, and the WHIP still impresses at 1.05. It is interesting to note that his fastball usage is up 10 percent while his curveball and change up rates are way down. Sure seems a long time ago that we had those preseason concerns, doesn’t it?
Griffin Canning has made four effective starts for the Angels. He has allowed four homers, though three came in one outing. In 3-of-4 outings he’s walked just one batter. Over the course of 21.1 innings he’s struck out 24 batters. He’s only lasted 5.2 innings one time, as the Angels are being cautious with his workload, but he’s 2-1 with a 1.08 WHIP through four starts, and that will play in any setup.
The universe is a billion years younger than we thought?
Jerad Eickhoff started out well making folks forget about Nick Pivetta (he has been rocking the K ball, but there hasn’t been word that he’s close to be being recalled to start – perhaps out of the bullpen?). However, things have taken a turn for the worse the last couple of times out as Jerad’s looked, bad. Over the nine innings he’s thrown against the Rockies and Brewers, he’s allowed 12 hits and nine runs including five home runs. It’s too early for sheer panic, but Pivetta and Vince Velasquez could be options in the rotation at some point soon, maybe, and let’s not forget that Eickhoff allows a lot of fly balls that can leave him homer prone (six homers allowed his last 44.1 innings with an elevated 44 percent fly ball rate). Might be wise to see what Eickhoff could bring on the trade market.
Jack Flaherty hasn’t exactly been on his game in four starts in May. He has 22 strikeouts in 22.2 innings, which is passable, and he’s only allowed two homers which works too. The rest has been pretty spotty. Jack has walked 14 batters leading to a massive 5.56 BB/9 rate. Jack has allowed 12 runs, 11 earned, leading to a 4.37 ERA (4.82 xFIP). The WHIP is 1.28 in that time. He’s just been slightly off, and slightly disappointing. He’s still a buy/hold versus sell though. There’s nothing going on here that should panic anyone.
Mike Fiers isn’t a top flight arm. He doesn’t own top flight stuff. He can get bombed from time to time, he’s allowed 1.58 homers per nine this season, but each year he seems to lock in for a while and pitch very well. The problem is though, that since his overall game is so moderate, by the time you realize he’s in a groove it’s likely coming to an end. Perhaps you took a shot and added him after he threw that no-no, and if you did you’ve gotten two solid efforts out of him (a quality start and a one run over five inning outing). Still, those two solid efforts included two homers and six walks. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in 5-straight outings, but he also has a poor 2.16 K/BB ratio and his 6.47 K/9 rate is more than a batter and a half below his 8.18 career rate. He just doesn’t miss enough bats to be relevant in mixed leagues long-term.
Kevin Gausman returned from suspension and tossed a quality start allowing two runs over six innings against the Brewers. He hasn’t allowed a homer in four outings, and one the season he has 50 punchouts in 48 innings. The walk rate is elevated at 3.56 per nine, but the strikeouts are encouraging (he’s a batter above his career rate). That walk number seems likely to recede if he maintains his 64 percent first pitch strike rate. Also of note is that he’s basically stopped throwing his slider, just two percent of the time this season, as he’s jacked up his split finger rate from 27 percent last season to over 38 percent this season. The K-rate on the pitch is over 30 percent, and that speaks to his overall growth in the punchout rate. It might also speak to why his homer rate is down from 1.24 per nine for his career to 0.94 this season. These are solid, finally moving forward after years of disappointment, moves for Gausman.
Can you remember your dreams?
Dakota Hudson has allowed three earned runs or less over his last sis outings leading to a 3.74 ERA. However, it’s not really going that well. Dakota has actually allowed 21 runs in that time with seven being unearned. Hudson has also posted a mere 6.15 K/9 rate with a 3.21 BB/9 mark. That’s a K/BB ratio under two, and that’s just not gonna get it done. Going back to the Mike Leake well, Hudson is Mike Leake, plus more than two walks per nine innings. If you aren’t a big Leake fan, there is no real reason to be a Hudson fan.
I was asked the other day why I was so down on Yusei Kikuchi. My reply was – I’m not at all. When the May Rankings Update came out, Kikuchi had a 1.28 WHIP, a 4.54 ERA, a 4.26 xFIP and a 6.7 K/9 rate. Nothing there stands out at all. I liked him coming into the season, but he was looking pretty much like just guy to start the year, so he dropped about 30 spots in the rankings. In May, the numbers have improved (4.00 K/BB, 2.03 ERA, .170 BAA) even as his GB/FB has worsened (1.11 this month versus just a tick under 1.50 last month) and his xFIP has remained similar (4.04). He will likely go back up in the rankings a bit in June as he has been solid overall. When you’re looking at a guy like this coming from another company, who really isn’t appreciably different than the top end rookie arms, you have to play the game of small sample sizes at times I don’t like it, but it’s gotta be factored in here a bit.
Reynaldo Lopez has a .348 wOBA at home and a .360 mark on the road. Lopez has a .392 wOBA against lefties, and a .308 mark against righties. He had a .386 wOBA through the end of April, and a .303 mark in May. The guy is all over the place. He has a big arm, but like Alcantara above, he issues too many free passes (4.02 per nine this season). He’s also been murdered by the long ball allowing 1.77 homers per nine. That’s what happens when all you do is allow fly balls. Let me be clear. The rest of his game doesn’t matter at all. If Lopez maintains that 55.4 percent fly ball rate this season, he won’t be usable. It’s just as simple as that.
Does The Opener really even work?
Corbin Martin is a young arm generating tons of interest (I spoke about him over the weekend). Through two starts he’s looked solid, but the swinging strike rate (7.1 percent) and first-pitch strike rates (52.5) are concerning.
Tanner Roark has allowed seven runs in four May starts leading to a 2.78 ERA (2.12 FIP, 3.94 xFIP). He hasn’t allowed a homer which has greatly aided his success, as has the rather impressive 23 punchouts in 22.2 innings. He wasn’t getting fat on weak opponents either as he took on the Dodgers, Cubs and Athletics. Solid addition at the moment for streaming potential.
Brandon Woodruff had a bad effort on April 21st. Since then, to say he has been rolling would be, well, accurate. Here are his excellent numbers over the five outings: 4-0, 1.50 ERA, 9.90 K/9, 0.60 HR/9, 1.00 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB. That’s elite level stuff folks. To date, about the only true issue he has had is lefties. Overall, they have crushed him to the tune of a .293/.375/.457 line, meaning every lefty has looked like a HOFamer against him. It’s ever worst at home where lefties have an absurd .431 wOBA. Once he figures out how to solve that dilemma, look out. The key will obviously be that changeup, the only pitch that could move away from lefties that he throws.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
