SUNDAY UPDATE:
I do believe it’s clear as day that Riley is going to be the big prize. You’ll see some $350+ bids on him with NFBC folks in both 12’s and 15’s spending over $200 for him. Moved up to fifth in the lineup today, which is great for his prospects. Power tough to come by in deep leagues and this is a special offense…he fits right in. What’s your CI situation and what’s he worth to you? That’s the question. Worst case scenario is Inciarte returns to the lineup and goes on a hot streak coinciding with Riley cooling off. Don’t foresee this situation occuring to the point where he gets demoted, but you never know. Let’s just hope if you’re spending a ton on him this week, that you’re confident that not only will he stay up the rest of the year, but that he’ll hit 20 or so homers without draining your average.
Next up is W.Calhoun, and some will spend more on him needing OF help. It’s still crowded in that Rangers’ outfield and he did get the day off today, but came through in his pinch-hit at-bat.
Hiura may have gone for a discount had he gone 0-of-4 today, but instead he hit a homer. So back into the mix he goes, but we still don’t know how Shaw’s return will affect him.
B.Rodgers had the day off and obviously teammate Ryan McMahon wants to sneak a Rodgers bid on his NFBC team because he went out and hit two homers today! We already know what a mess this organization is and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Rodgers sent down just as quickly as he came back up. Worth a shot to bid upon of course and he could be the best of them all.
Then there’s Nicky Lopez and Oscar Mercado, likely the cheapest of the group. Lopez continues to play every day and hit second. Mercado is at the bottom of the Indians’ lineup and had a decent Sunday showing (2-for-3, 2 runs, 1 RBI) but was caught stealing. Hey, at least he tried and that’s what we like to see. Again, it’s all speculation with Zimmer back eventually so Mercado will have to show he fits in here over the next couple weeks. Won’t go for as much as the others on this list.
Corbin Martin is less appealing to all after not being able to even hit the plate early on in that game against Boston yesterday. Price just went down and that’s because he could well be replaced in this rotation.
Erick Fedde joins the mix for 15-team bids since he’s slated to go twice this week (@ NYM, v MIA). As does Wilmer Font (v WAS, v DET) but Font hasn’t even been confirmed to start so it all may be conjecture at this point. Fedde is a former 1st overall pick from 2014 so hasn’t really harnessed his potential. He’s been down in Double-A this season were he’s been decent and had a subpar run of 11 starts with an ERA over 5.00 last season. The v MIA part of this will make people at least consider bidding, but it could certainly be a trap. Tread carefully.
Finally, Jordan Luplow is one guy who will be bid upon in 15’s who I happened to miss in this article yesterday. Three homers this week but I’m guessing your grandma could hit at least one with 7 games against Orioles and White Sox’ pitching. He’s striking out at a 35% clip and is of very little interest to me. Hopefully your leaguemates will spend up on him.
Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
PITCHERS
This weekend has already been dubbed the greatest FAAB weekend in NFBC history with the fast and furious promotion of some of the league’s top prospects. Given how barren the field of options is with pitchers for 15-team leagues, I’ll be concentrating most of my efforts on how to manage hitting bids this week. Yes, you should bid on Astros’ RHP Corbin Martin, but otherwise, let’s hope you can field a full staff of pitchers this week.
The 2-steppers you are for sure starting:
Justin Verlander (RH/HOU), Carlos Carrasco (RH/CLE), Trevor Bauer (RH/CLE), Patrick Corbin (LH/WAS), Caleb Smith (LH/MIA), Zack Greinke or Luke Weaver – whoever starts Monday (RH/ARI), Chris Paddack (RH/SDP), Mike Soroka (RH/ATL), German Marquez (RH/COL), Spencer Turnbull (RH/DET), Zack Wheeler (RH/NYM), Domingo German (RH/NYY), Mike Minor (LH/TEX), Marcus Stroman (RH/TOR), J.A. Happ (LH/NYY), Jake Odorizzi (RH/MIN), Yu Darvish (RH/CHC), Jose Quintana (LH/CHC)
The borderline two-step choices in 15- and 12-teamers:
Zach Eflin (RH/PHI) – @ CHC, @ MLW and Jake Arrieta (RH/PHI) – @ CHC, @ MLW – You’re most likely playing them in 15-teamers and may consider sitting in 12’s if ratios are an issue.
Chris Archer (RH/PIT) – v COL, v LAD – Hasn’t been sharp of late and that second start looks tough.
Gio Gonzalez (LH/MLW) – v CIN, v PHI – Four straight solid starts as the vet still has a bit of juice left. Low strikeout rate (18%), but he’s serviceable for these two starts.
Wade Miley (LH/HOU) – v CHW, v BOS – A completely different pitcher at home (2.31 ERA, .245 wOBA) and that start against the White Sox makes him palatable this week.
Felix Pena (RH/LAA) – v MIN, v TEX – If you held him, it’s probably for these two matchups. Might even be better if Cam Bedrosian opens both games.
Julio Teheran (RH/ATL) – @ SF, @ STL – In play for 15-teamers, a borderline sit in 12’s.
Brett Anderson (LH/OAK) – @ CLE, v SEA – Not ideal this week but workable for 15-teamers.
Avoid
Andrew Cashner (RH/BAL) & David Hess (RH/BAL) – v NYY, @ COL
Ross Detwiler (LH/CHW) & Dylan Covey (RH/CHW) – @ HOU, @ MIN
Mike Leake (RH/SEA) – @ TEX, @ OAK
Edwin Jackson (RH/TOR) – v BOS, v SD
Dereck Rodriguez (RH/SFG) – v ATL, v ARI
The SP bids
Corbin Martin (RH/HOU), Shaun Anderson (RH/SFG)
Martin is the prized pitching pickup this week, but bid amounts will be dictated by how his start with the Red Sox goes on Saturday. If on average we project him to go for $75 in 12’s and $150 in 15’s, you can bump that up significantly if he has a good start. By saying ‘you can bump that up’, I mean the field will but you don’t have to necessarily. Of course, unless you think he can hold down that rotation spot all season. For now, Martin does look safe with Colin McHugh and Josh James likely staying in the bullpen and Forrest Whitley stinking up the joint in Triple-A (10.48 ERA over 22.1 IP). Better than making a decision for your bid based on a box score, try to watch that start and scout for yourself. If your team desperately needs an arm, grabbing a decent prospect who plays for the Astros isn’t a bad spot at all.
Anderson is the latest call-up for the Giants and lines up for two home starts next week, which should boost up interest for him, bid-wise. You’ll be able to snag him for much cheaper than Martin, and surely a pitcher in AT&T who his manager says will stick in the rotation isn’t a bad back-up option.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games:
National League: NYM, ATL, PHI, WAS, CHC, ATL
American League: BAL, BOS, NYY, TOR, CHW, CLE, HOU
Teams with 5 games:
National League: MLW, CIN, STL, LAD
American League: KC
THE GOOD
- Yankees – Great schedule with seven on the road against the Orioles (four) and Royals (three). Only the Rangers staff/bullpen (active roster) has a worse team ERA than BAL and KC, and the Orioles have allowed a league-worst 66 homers (through Thursday’s games). We usually start most of our Yankees, but it brings Brett Gardner and Clint Frazier into 12-team relevance this week and an outside shot for Gio Urshela and Kendrys Morales in 15’s.
- Orioles – It may not seem like it, but this offense has been overperforming, as there are actually seven MLB teams they have scored more runs than this season. They get seven games (four at home vs. NYY and three at Coors Field vs. COL) and might see three lefties. That brings Pedro Severino (.438 wOBA vs. LHP) into the 15-team stream mix this week. Steve Wilkerson isn’t very disciplined (1.4% BB, 31.4% K), but he should be considered as a one-week rental too. Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar are lock-and-load plays, but you don’t need me to tell you that.
- Phillies – Interesting split week with seven on the road. The first series is four at Wrigley Field where they might face four lefties. If you’re in NFBC and have those twice-weekly moves, it may make sense to bench Cesar Hernandez (.285 wOBA, .094 ISO vs LHP) and Odubel Herrera (.255, .048) for that first period. We may see the return of Scott Kingery, who can play some 2B, but if not, it will be Sean Rodriguez seeing some of those starts. Then it’s three games in Miller Park (Brewers) where we’re making sure to play our lefty and switch-hitting Phillies bats.
- Diamondbacks – Seeing 3 @ SD, 3 @ SF isn’t usually a great thing for opposing hitters visiting pitcher-friendly parks. But it’s a different story with the Padres employing southpaws as 4/5ths of their rotation. That means these red-hot Dbacks will likely face three southpaws in a row and then possibly Drew Pomeranz in AT&T. I’m sure you know this, but the Diamondbacks are the best-hitting team against lefties with six of their guys posting a wOBA of .380 or higher against them. The best so far is Carson Kelly (.598! in 25 PA), Nick Ahmed (.468), Eduardo Escobar (.437), Jarrod Dyson (.427 but with a goose egg in ISO) as well as Ketel Marte, Alex Avila and Adam Jones. And that’s not even counting Wilmer Flores, who is a known lefty-masher. Flores has a below-average .330 wOBA against lefties this season but a decent .209 ISO against them. Play your Dbacks.
THE BAD
- Looking at the teams with five games, there are a few strong offenses here (Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers). If you’re in a weekly league, you’re basically looking at the handedness splits to see if there’s anyone we may need to bench because they may sit against lefties or righties. That brings our immediate attention to the Dodgers lefty bats like Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, but the Dodgers aren’t projected to really face any southpaws this week outside of Rays’ Jalen Beeks, who will come in after opener Ryne Stanek. Besides, Verdugo happens to be the Dodgers’ best hitter against lefties this season (.445 wOBA). All this to say you really shouldn’t get cute and try to sit Dodgers lefty bats in this five-game week unless you truly have a stronger option. I’m looking forward to the Royals’ schedule the week after next week, as they’ll play seven on the road against the White Sox and Rangers.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Jason Castro (LH/MIN), Elias Diaz (RH/PIT), Pedro Severino (RH/BAL)
Castro is turning 32 soon and has been in the leagues since 2010. He’s actually hit double-digit homers in every healthy season with at least 100 games played (career-high 18 in 2013) and is on a freak-like pace this year (seven HR in 67 PA) that will undoubtedly settle down at some point. Doesn’t matter for our purposes though since Castro will see more time behind the plate and in the lineup with Mitch Garver sidelined and this Twins squad mashing. Catcher is a wasteland and Castro will be popular.
Pirates’ Diaz has been finding himself in the lineup more regularly with Francisco Cervelli struggling this season. We can’t really stash catchers nor should we, but a part-time Diaz could be a better option than some of our current C2’s. Severino would purely be a one-week rental for the schedule.
Corner Infielders – *Austin Riley (RH/ATL), secondary: Kyle Seager (LH/SEA), Renato Nunez (RH/BAL)
(a quick overview of FAAB strategy this weekend below. Also, be sure to check out my breakdown of these rookies here – though note this is from Tuesday which is pre-Willie Calhoun and Brendan Rodgers)
Riley may end up being the biggest ticket item in the most memorable FAAB week of all time literally because of how he’s kicked things off. He went yard in his first game and is hitting .500 (6-for-12) through his first three games. Had Hiura went 6-for-12 with a homer in his first game, we’d be spending most for him. Riley is clearly the top power prospect of our sexy group of FAAB rookies (15 HR through his first 37 Triple-A games) and how big we bid depends primarily on our needs at Corner Infield. Riley is a third baseman playing left field while Ender Inciarte is out and what will the Braves do when Inciarte returns? If Riley continues to hit well, it probably won’t matter. But if things start to go 180 at the plate, it’s a different conversation. The clear path to us not worrying about full-time at-bats for Riley is if Josh Donaldson gets hurt but that’s simply unsubstantial speculation at this point. As we stand, deciding how much we bid on Riley (and any of these rookies) is a blend of several factors: 1) determining our need by position/review of our team depth, 2) determining our need based on category (in roto leagues), and 3) reviewing MLB team’s depth chart and forecasting prospects’ ‘staying power’ on the roster. If we can confidently check off these boxes upon review, then we can more aptly make our decisions.
As it stands, we’ll likely see some of the folks in our league who haven’t been very active in FAAB this season who still have $950 of $1000 remaining come out of the woodwork and drop crazy $400+ bids. If we’ve got $500 left, there’s not much we can do about that (and $400 probably isn’t worth it to us on any of these guys). If you’ve got $600 left and want to drop 45% of your budget on Riley on a team where you’re desperately in need of a CI, I won’t blame you. In 15-teamers, my assumption is that his average FAAB price will be around $190 – $230 and that’s assuming he doesn’t go 0-for-8 on Saturday/Sunday and plays both games.
Those who miss out on Riley at 3B will attempt to fall back on Seager (37% owned in NFBC Main Event). Seager will be making his season debut this week after missing all of the season thus far with a hand injury. He joins a true logjam and it may just result in J.P. Crawford getting demoted. At least that’s how I see it. Tim Beckham should move back to SS (he’s been either sitting or playing 3B) and Ryon Healy will mix in at 3B or DH against lefties (Seager and Vogelbach are LHH’s best served in lineup against RHPs). Seager is arguably the most boring fantasy addition of the last several seasons as we’d always know what to expect (25-30 HR, 80-90 RBI and an average under .270). His 2018 was his worst season to date (22 HR, .221/.273/.400) and though he’s serviceable as a CI if your 15-teamer is in need and may have a couple spurts of power this season, Seager won’t be a savior for your squad. Don’t pay triple-digits for the name.
The 25-year-old Nunez couldn’t have more drastic splits over the first couple months. He hit .266 with 6 HR and 18 RBI over March/April (109 PA) and so far in May is hitting .102 with just 1 HR (49 PA). Who he truly is, is someone in the middle and he’s been dropped in most 15-teamers so he isn’t a bad consolation prize as the Orioles head to Coors next weekend.
Middle Infielders – *Keston Hiura (RH/MLW), *Brendan Rodgers (2B/COL), Nicky Lopez (LH/KCR), secondary: Scott Kingery (RH/PHI), Nick Ahmed (RH/ARI), Dawel Lugo (RH/DET)
Hiura will be a secondary target this week only because of recency bias. Meaning, he’s struggled through his first four games including four strikeouts on Thursday. There’s also the concern that his stay with the Brewers might be short since Travis Shaw will be back soon. That’s why it’s hard to spend triple-digits on him this week, but of course, one big game this weekend can change public perception. That said, I do think he’s arguably the best hitter of this bunch. A ninth-overall pick with incredible bat speed, solid discipline and a good overall hitter who can produce across all five standard roto categories. The team context and great home park only boost his allure. I’ll be bidding where I need MI’s but will keep most of these as ‘keep-em-honest’ bids hoping he sneaks through onto one of my teams. I foresee a situation where Shaw will simply be a bat off the bench or occasional starter against RHPs and that Hiura figures things out this week.
Rodgers has been a long-heralded prospect for many of us, though, the majority of folks didn’t expect him to truly make his impact until next season because Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon were further along. Well, Hampson struggled and was demoted, McMahon has essentially become a bench bat/platoon guy and Rodgers is here (for now). At this point, most of us know the value of hitters who play half their games at Coors but also know how tilting fringe fantasy assets are in Coors and how management handles their young players. Strangely enough, their big offseason addition Daniel Murphy hasn’t been playing much lately but that may also be due to the fact that he isn’t truly 100% healthy. Rodgers is worth speculating on in the same realm as Hiura but with no assurances, he’ll stay up all season. Let’s see how this weekend plays out and I’ll post an update with my rankings of all of these rookies late on Sunday.
Lopez is off to a great start to his big-league career and has been snuggly doing work hitting high in this Royals lineup in between Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi. I discussed Lopez here on Wednesday but anyone thinking they’ll be able to sneak him in among all these rookies is mistaken since he continues to hit second and looks good at the plate. Let’s see how the rest of the weekend shakes out, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some big triple-digit bids on Lopez and ahead of Hiura and Rodgers. I’ll make sure to have an update Sunday.
Secondary guys for 15-teamers include Lugo, Kingery and Ahmed. Lugo joins a pathetic Tigers’ offense and it’s doubtful he offers much spark since he doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t offer much average-wise. He could run a little and hit a few home runs but he’s mainly just here while Jeimer Candelario figures things out in Triple-A. Kingery and Ahmed are much more palpable as bids. Kingery should be back this week after some time on the IL and resume his role as a bench guy who plays a couple times per week but could earn more playing time if he hits well. Ahmed is a rental for the week because the Dbacks should face four or five LHP and he’s been hitting them extremely well this season (.311 ISO, .458 wOBA, 37% HH).
Outfielders – *Willie Calhoun (LH/TEX), *Oscar Mercado (RH/CLE), secondary: Albert Almora (RH/CHC), Charlie Tilson (LH/CHW), Melky Cabrera (SW/PIT), Steve Wilkerson (SW/BAL), Carlos Gomez (LH/NYM), stash: Cedric Mullins (LH/BAL)
Calhoun will see triple-digit bids this week mostly because he has prospect pedigree, plays for a fun offense and has been hitting well from the key two-hole through his first three games (8-for-16, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R). A former Dodgers’ prospect once seen in the same light as Cody Bellinger, Calhoun struggled in his transition to the majors last season but was great in Triple-A this season (32 games: 8 HR, 14% K, .416 OBP). The Rangers’ outfield/DH situation is a good problem to have since they are loaded between Gallo, Choo, Mazara, DeShields and Pence. Pence’s resurgence and super-hot May (5-14-.297) makes things difficult here, but I do believe Calhoun is here to stay. Just so much value if he can hold that two-spot in the lineup. I’d actually consider him my top bid amongst the rookies and could justify spending north of 25% of my budget on him.
Mercado has now sat twice in the three games since getting promoted which makes no sense whatsoever. Mercado hit sixth on Tuesday and is slated to hit ninth on Saturday. Not exactly a boost of confidence for fantasy bidders this week. What we do know is that if Mercado actually stuck with the team, he’d eventually provide our fantasy squads with some much-needed stolen bases. How long can these Indians continue to play Carlos Gonzalez every day? There’s a path for Mercado to stick and be the guy we sneak in with our bids but the long-term concern is that Bradley Zimmer is already DH’ing in extended spring training games and may be back in a few weeks. Sure, that might mean back to the Triple-A club while Mercado gets cushy on the Indians. But there are no guarantees. Unless Mercado swipes a couple bases this weekend, he’s going to go for pennies in relation to the other big names this weekend.
Among the secondary guys, Almora is my favorite all-around add though he doesn’t do any one thing particularly well besides hit for average. He has been playing every day (CF, hitting eighth) and that’s a lot more than we can say for so many fringe OF’ers available in FAAB this weekend. Tilson was a former semi-big prospect whose only true value is in stealing bases. If you need those, make sure to throw a bid on him. Melky is a fringe outfielder on his own team but does offer batting average help. He shifts between LF and RF with Starling Marte locked at CF, rookie Bryan Reynolds playing LF most days and Gregory Polanco in right but sitting on occasion against LHP.
Utility – Kendrys Morales (SW/NYY)
Not the first guy who’s had a stint with the A’s and then went on to hit well elsewhere. Morales could fit in for lineups that temporarily lost Nelson Cruz and have an available DH/UT slot. Won’t play every day but the Bombers have a good schedule this week and Kendrys may like these pinstripes.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues
Corner Infielders – Riley, Tommy La Stella 2B/3B (LH/LAA), Jake Bauers (LH/CLE), Ronald Guzman (LH/TEX)
There is certainly a case to be made for La Stella being a must-add and it’s funny to think how we all saw this coming and could have picked him up for under $10 last week and now may have to pay $50-plus for his services. This is the type of stuff that separates the best fantasy managers from the pack. There have been countless La Stella articles out this week as he continues to mash and now folks are really starting to believe. He leads his team in homers despite a below-average hard-hit rate and exit velocity. It’s true: a .416 wOBA and .299 ISO that’s more than double any previous season is unsustainable but he’s been showing incredible plate patience (6.6% strikeout rate) and does have a key role with this team for now. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up having a fantasy-worthy season but it’s hard to imagine him continuing with this power surge. Feel free to add, but don’t overpay.
Riley in 12-teamers will probably see low triple-digit bids (and in some cases a whole lot more for those who want a sexy prospect) but I’ll personally be keeping my bids under $100. That goes for most of these guys this week. In fact, I’d very much consider staying one step ahead of the field and grab Kyle Tucker for $10 or less hoping he’s promoted soon. If you don’t want to go crazy with your spending, let’s not forget how many prospects we’re still waiting for. And if you want to wait for Yordan Alvarez and be competitive in that bidding, you may not want to go crazy on the guys this weekend.
Bauers was someone I recommended that you grab last week as he was beginning to heat up and Guzman is the guy you want when the Rangers have several righties in a coming week as he’s got some true pure power and we have a warm summer on its way to Arlington.
Middle Infielders – Hiura, Rodgers, Lopez, Ronny Rodriguez (RH/DET), Wilmer Flores 2B/3B (RH/ARI)
Folks shouldn’t really go crazy in 12-teamers but those who have teams that are struggling and have a healthy FAAB budget may want to consider Hiura and Rodgers if they need the MI help. RonnyRod feels like he has a .100 week coming up soon, but not quite yet as I very much like his upcoming schedule. A tough series with the Mets next weekend sandwiched between a couple of nice ones (v MIA, @ BAL). Flores gets some lefties on tap this week and he’s hitting .311 with a 45% hard-hit rate against lefties.
Outfielders – Calhoun, Mercado, Kyle Tucker stash (LH/HOU), Christin Stewart (LH/DET), Eric Thames OF/1B (LH/MLW)
Not many exciting assets outside of Calhoun this week. Wanted to recommend Brandon Nimmo but the Mets face three lefties this week and he’s been below average in almost every facet of his game including near league-bottom in exit velocity and xSLG. Stewart has struggled since coming off IL but these next couple of weeks look good on paper for the Tigers, who are currently the AL’s worst offense.