Free agency has come and gone, and so has the Draft. Best Ball season is approaching full swing, and this early on is a great time of year to jump in with volume, as ADP hasn’t fully adjusted to the offseason moves. Here, I’m highlighting some best ball values as I currently see them in ADP.
OVERDRAFTED: Patrick Mahomes
* Ducks * Mahomes lit the 2018 season on fire, becoming one of only three players in history to throw for 50 TDs while adding another two on the ground. He threw for an insane 5097 yards, averaged 26.1 fantasy points per game and finished as your fantasy QB1 on the year, and it wasn’t particularly close (outscoring first runner up Matt Ryan by 63 points). The question isn’t whether that’s good, it’s “… is it repeatable?” History thinks no. Those other two QBs on the list (Brady and Manning) threw for less than 30 the following year. Regression is real and so is the likelihood the Chiefs will be taking the field sans Tyreek Hill in 2019. Losing his biggest deep threat, yardage leader and touchdown leader can’t bode well for Mahomes this season. The thing about Mahomes is, even with all of this working against him, he’s still going to easily finish a QB1, likely a top-5 QB in any format. His current ADP of 35th overall is very high and an opportunity cost I am not willing to pay. The depth at QB this year (and most years) is insane. If you wait FOUR rounds, yes four, you can grab Aaron Rodgers. Want to wait until the 8th round? Brees will be waiting for you with open arms. Wake up in the 10th round and don’t have a QB? Kyler Murray is your guy. Mahomes is going to be outstanding, but is he worth passing up your RB2 or WR2? QB cost is an arguable point, but paying this in lieu of your RB2 is far less arguable. I don’t believe he is remotely worth that sacrifice this year.
UNDERDRAFTED: Kyler Murray
When the Arizona Cardinals took Murray at number one overall in this year’s draft, they set the tone for what their offensive identity would be. Cardinal’s head coach Kliff Kingsbury has been very open about their desire to run an “Air Raid” offense and took the best signal caller in the draft to fit his scheme. Big arm? Check. Accuracy? Check. Legs? Check. By now, everyone is well aware of Kyler Murray’s landmark season at OSU: 4361 passing yards, 42 touchdowns, 66% completion rate. But what should have fantasy players salivating is his 1,001 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Arizona wants to throw, and they want to throw a lot. With the running of the Air Raid, the rushing game takes a very far back seat, in lieu of the quarterback being able to scramble to beat the defenses on the ground. Murray shouldn’t have much trouble adjusting to this scheme, as OSU head coach, Lincoln Riley, runs a similar offense. With his efficiency, accuracy, aptitude for running, along with the slew of wide receivers sitting on the Arizona depth chart, Murray should easily find himself as a QB1 this year. His current ADP of 110 in .5 PPR is a good value, but his full PPR ADP of 135 is even better. If you’re looking to grab QB late, and you should be… Murray is your guy.
UNDERDRAFTED: Devonta Freeman
Recency bias has tagged Falcon’s running back Devonta Freeman as “injury prone.” He played just two games in 2018…. but only missed two games the year before. The year before that? He played all 16. The year before that, he played in 15. I’m not sure why the masses are scared off of Freeman after one year missed due to injury, but I’m glad they are. He’s slid all the way to the back half of the 3rd round in Best Ball drafts. Removing the 2018 season, Freeman has finished as RB13 and running RB6 in PPR leagues the last two years. Head Coach Dan Quinn has made it clear he would like more emphasis on the run game in 2019 and highlighted this using the first two draft picks on some new O line pieces, in Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary. With Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison still sitting on the depth chart, it may still be a timeshare in Atlanta, but there’s no reason to believe Freeman won’t be the biggest beneficiary as well as the goal line back. “If Freeman stays healthy, he’ll have a big year!” Do we really have reason to think he won’t? Grabbing a possible RB1 in the back of the third round is highway robbery, especially in PPR.
OVERDRAFTED: Tarik Cohen
With the departure of Jordan Howard, things were looking up for Tarik Cohen. But the NFL giveth, and the NFL taketh away. Really, in any scenario, when your team trades UP in the draft to add depth to your position, you don’t love it. Adding insult to injury was looking at what percentage of their picks the Bears gave up to get him. When the Bears moved up 14 spots to grab Iowa State’s David Montgomery, they solidified all the suspicions they don’t believe Tarik Cohen is workhorse material. He was already going to be in a timeshare with Mike Davis, but bringing in back number three was a pretty huge red flag. It’s not so much the number of backs on the roster, it’s more their capabilities that give me huge pause with Cohen. David Montgomery is a natural three-down back. He didn’t have massive college pass-catching production, but he is more than capable of catching check downs and lining up in the slot. Davis is a meager talent but not completely useless in the passing game. Cohen, who finished 2018 with 71 receptions for 725 yards, was widely productive in the passing game. But you have to ask… How can that continue? The Bears have one of the most stout defenses in the NFL. They finished bottom half in pass attempts last year and middle of the pack as far as plays per game. It’s not exactly a dream scenario for the primary pass-catching back on the team. Most importantly, Cohen currently has a 4th round ADP. For comparison, that means passing on guys like Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. This backfield, somehow, got muddier than last year, and the ADP for Cohen has not yet adjusted.
UNDERDRAFTED: Dede Westbrook
Despite leading Jacksonville in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season, Dede Westbrook is currently being taken in the 10th round of Best Ball drafts. Westbrook’s sophomore season amounted to 66 catches for 717 yards and five touchdowns. A serviceable season by any measurement, the feat is made much more impressive when you factor in the ball was coming from Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler. While the Jaguars looked to improve their offense in free agency, acquiring QB Nick Foles and WR Chris Conley, they didn’t add a single pass catcher in the draft, presumably banking on a healthy Marquise Lee and further development from Westbrook. With Donte Moncrief now suiting up as a Steeler, he left behind 89 vacated targets to be distributed in the upcoming season. When you factor in more accurate quarterback play with the available touches, all signs point to an even more productive 2019 for Dede Westbrook, and his current ADP is a great value.
UNDERDRAFTED: Kenny Stills
Kenny Stills is currently going in the 15th round of some Best Ball drafts. I say some because, in a good majority of the drafts I do, he goes undrafted until I take him in the 16th. Here’s the best part… Stills is the HIGHEST Miami WR by ADP, with Parker and Wilson averaging an ADP of 196. Of all the wideouts left on the Dolphins depth chart, Stills led the team in targets, receptions and touchdowns in 2018. I get it, the Dolphins weren’t good, and they may not be any better this season, but how bad do they have to be to not produce a single relevant wide receiver? With Amendola gone, and hypothetically better (I use better very loosely here) quarterback play, it would be pretty difficult for Stills not to pay off an ADP of basically undrafted. We don’t yet know who will be the Miami signal-caller this season, but I’m not sure it matters. Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to sustain serviceable fantasy pass catchers in Tampa, and Josh Rosen, with a new team, scheme and level of confidence, should at least have an uptick in productivity. Stills is by no means a home run, but if you’re able to get a team WR1, for a team that will most likely be trailing the majority of the season for free… how do you even try to say “no thanks?”
OVERDRAFTED: Cooper Kupp
Considering the current fantasy landscape of the Los Angeles Rams, along with his injury, I was pretty surprised to see Cooper Kupp going in the fifth round of Best Ball drafts. Kupp was on pace to have a great 2018. In just eight games played, he amassed 40 receptions for 566 yards and six touchdowns, but those figures are inflated by the Viking game in prime time. Kupp was a huge part of the Rams’ offense but tore his ACL in Week 11. Surprisingly, the Rams didn’t miss a beat. We saw more concentrated targets to Cooks and Woods and some ancillary play from Josh Reynolds and the tight ends, and we know how that ended… with a trip to the Super Bowl. While I’m not saying Kupp has lost his position in the pecking order, I am saying Cooks and Woods easily solidified themselves at 1A and 1B. With the addition of Darrell Henderson in the draft, could we see him lining up in the slot more if Kupp isn’t a full go? Kupp could very easily pick up where he left off and have a productive fantasy season, but at this time of the year, with such question marks surrounding his health, you’re certainly not getting a discount in the 5th round. If you’re hunting for wideouts in this ADP, I think you’re taking on much less risk and much higher ceilings with Mike Williams or Chris Godwin.
OVERDRAFTED: Eric Ebron
When I think of “regression candidate,” I think of Eric Ebron in a frame on my fireplace mantle. Ebron’s 66 receptions for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns landed him the decoration of TE4. Thirteen touchdowns on 66 receptions might sound super efficient, and it is; essentially, every 5th reception was a score. For perspective, Ebron scored more touchdowns in 2018 with Indianapolis than he did on every one of his years with the Lions… *combined.* With the offensive additions to Colts, Ebron stands to lose at least a little of his target share. Most notably, the return of fellow tight end, Jack Doyle will most certainly have a sizeable impact on Ebron’s productivity. Not only will Doyle be returning, but the Colts added Parris Campbell in the 2019 Draft and Devin Funchess in free agency. The 2018 season was a marriage of opportunity and efficiency, and in the 5th round, I’m not betting lightning strikes twice. Ebron is an easy fade for me that early in drafts.
UNDERDRAFTED
I’m not going to lie to you; tight end is a barren position, outside of the top 3-4 guys. If you’re lucky enough to snag one of them early on, it’s a great advantage with the onesie position. However, if you’re looking to strike gold later on, there are some good options. David Njoku is currently going in the 10th round. Yes, Cleveland has added some high powered offensive weaponry in Odell Beckham and Kareem Hunt, but Njoku is a favorite target of Baker Mayfield’s and the 6’4 250 tight end will be very useful on end zone spike weeks. Kyle Rudolph finds himself in the 12th round after a very disappointing 2018. Minnesota didn’t do much in the way of adding anything to their offense this season, so the targets should still be concentrated to Rudolph, Diggs and Thielen. Hope for some regression to the mean here. Right after Rudolph, I like to target Noah Fant. It’s generally a rule rookie tight ends are pretty much useless, as the position takes longer to develop in the NFL, but Fant finds himself on a team with big offensive question marks. No one really knows how Emmanuel Sanders will return to form after his torn Achilles, and Courtland Sutton didn’t show us a whole lot, even after Sander’s season ended. Joe Flacco loves his tight ends, and Fant could be a big beneficiary for this offense running on fumes.
