For many years, I have been confident that RBs who score multiple (more than two) receiving TDs in one season will score less of them in the next season. This has been one of the surest examples of regression to the mean in fantasy football. The reasons essentially were that few runners scored more than two touchdowns in a year so it was statistically unlikely that they’d repeat what was already a rare event. But then 2018 happened.
Let’s look at some data. First, here’s the number of running backs scoring 3 or more TDs every year since 20021:
From 2002 to 2012, there were never more than 7 RBs in a season to reach the 3 receiving TD level, and about 5 on average. Since 2013, there have been at least 9 each year – and an average of nearly 12. Note the jump in 2018 – from an already high point.
Now look at how many RBs repeated:
Over half of all backs with 3+ receiving TDs in one year from 2002-2017 only scored one – or no – receiving touchdowns the next season (DNP = did not play). Two-thirds scored two or fewer times through the air.
Of the 109 times RBs caught 3+ TD passes from 2002-2017, only 23 (21%) caught the same number or more TD passes the next season:
An even smaller number, 11, INCREASED their total in the next season.
Here’s the number of RBs who repeated scoring 3+ receiving TDs:
Through 2013, no more than 2 backs in a year put together a repeat 3+ receiving TD season. A few years, no RBs did it. Since 2014, there have been 3 or more such RBs almost every year. And look at 2018: NINE RBs who had 3+ TD catches in 2017 came back and did it again.
Of course, before 2013, not many RBs were scoring 3+ receiving TDs. So instead of raw numbers, let’s look at percentages:
Only twice have more than half of the backs who caught 3+ TD passes repeated that the next year. In 2005, three RBs scored 3+ TDs through the air. In 2006, Brian Westbrook scored 4; Justin Griffith scored 3, and Domanick Williams2 didn’t play. Because there was such a small number of eligible RBs in 2006, that high percentage seems like a fluke.
2018 doesn’t feel that way. There were 13 RBs with 3+ receiving TDs in 2017 and 9 of them scored that many or more in 2018. Based primarily on that, and the increasing number of total RBs scoring 3+ receiving TDs, I think that more than half of the 16 RBs with 3+TD reception last year will do it again.
I’ll admit those aren’t statistically significant numbers so I could be wrong. But doing useful statistical analysis in fantasy football often requires making leaps beyond pure statistical significance. Waiting for large enough samples or extended patterns of performance is just not feasible if you want to win your league now. It’s important to acknowledge when my (or your) judgments are based on subjective factors or non-significant statistics; let’s not fool ourselves. But we have to make decisions in conditions of uncertainty.
In the past, I would predict that most of these RBs would score fewer receiving TDs in 2019 (last year’s TD catches in parentheses), now I’m saying most will repeat:
- Kareem Hunt (7)
- James White (7)
- Christian McCaffrey (6)
- Tarik Cohen (5)
- Tevin Coleman (5)
- Kenyan Drake (5)
- Saquon Barkley (4)
- Melvin Gordon (4)
- Todd Gurley (4)
- Alvin Kamara (4)
- T.J. Yeldon (4)
- Austin Ekeler (3)
- Ezekiel Elliott (3)
- David Johnson (3)
- Duke Johnson (3)
- Jaylen Samuels (3)
I’ll take their situations more individually. Hunt, Coleman, Yeldon and Duke Johnson have different circumstances. David Johnson has a new QB and coach. Drake has a clear shot at more workload as well as a new QB and OC. Samuels’ workload is unclear. Those 7 RBs are probably more at risk of failing to score 3+ receiving TDs.
White, McCaffrey, Gordon, Gurley, Kamara and Ekeler all have repeated the feat at least once. All except maybe Ekeler have to be rated as likely to do it again3. That’s 5 of 6.
Cohen, Elliott and Barkley had never done it before but are basically in the same situation and are talented enough that I think chances are high that these 3 repeat.
That’s 8 of 16 that I feel confident about; it only takes Ekeler or 1 of the first group of 7 to make a majority. Sometimes in fantasy football, things change. I think this is one of those times.
1Since start and end points matter in analysis, I picked the year when the league expanded to 32 teams as my start point. Therefore, I’m dealing with a constant number of “starting” RBs. Also, I’m defining “RB” as players with 10 or more carries, which eliminates some “fullbacks” who get targets but not carries.
2Griffith was a glorified fullback who slipped through my 10-carry screen; he only had 15 rushes in 2005. Williams was known as Domanick Davis his 1st season or two in the league.
3Both Johnsons, Hunt, and Coleman have also repeated 3+ TD reception seasons, and if they hadn’t changed teams (or Hunt hadn’t come to Duke’s squad), would be likely to score 3 times on catches this year.
