What is wrong with Aaron Nola? Ray Flowers does some digging. Bieber has been good, minus the homer issues. Duffy – is he ever worth it? Foltynewicz just can’t seem to find what he had last season. Hendricks has snapped back, from some early season struggles, and has looked dominant the last month. Kikuchi has been pitching pretty darn well in the Pacific Northwest. Leake, Mike. He’s still around. He’s still getting outs. Musgrove – a tale of patience. Paddack had a hiccup. Peralta has moved to the bullpen with the Brewers. Caleb Smith has dominated, much has Chris Sale has of late.
Shane Bieber has thrown 49.2 innings, and here are the results: 3.81 ERA (3.69 SIERA, 3.96 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, 9.79 K/9, 2.36 BB/9 and 1.81 homers per nine. The only issue to date has been the homer, well that and the more than seven percent drop in his ground ball rate leading to a well below average 0.91 GB/FB ratio. The fastball has been the issue. The slider is dominant, but the heater can be straight, and the results on the fastball this season include a .512 SLG and .280 ISO thanks to six homers allowed. Clean that up, and his numbers could even improve (at least the ERA).
Danny Duffy, aka the Heartbreaker, is at it again. That is if you bought in and added him. Hopefully you didn’t. He’s just not very good, shouldn’t be expected to be good, and should only be used by the desperate in a good matchup.
Mike Foltynewicz first four starts this season, his average 4-seam fastball has been less than 94.8 mph each time out. The mark was never below 94.8 mph in any start last season. In 21.1 innings he’s allowed 23 runs, 19 earned, with eight homers and just 14 strikeouts. He shouldn’t have been started at any point this season, and it’s a legitimate question at this point if he’s even worth a roster spot. He might not be depending on your options. He’s just not right.
Kyle Hendricks was blasted against the D’backs on the road, but his other four starts the last five times he’s taken the hill have been marvelous. The other four outings have all been at least seven innings of work with a total of one earned run allowed. That’s a five-game run with a 1.95 ERA (2.18 FIP), even with the seven-run beat down. He’s amazing right now, that groove he’s in is just epic as he’s also walked only four guys in the five outings. This is as good as it gets, and it’s marvelous. You know what to expect with him at this point, not this level of dominance of course, and that’s gonna lead to some really solid numbers for your fantasy squad.
There goes the bouncy house.
Yusei Kikuchi has rounded into form after a bit of a slow start to the season. Through 10 outings the lefty of the Mariners has produced a 3.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and that includes his current four games run of allowing just five runs while walking four. That first effort in the run was when he was used as an Opener, he threw one inning, and that still seems to be the plan for the Mariners with Kikuchi – to use him as an Opener once every five or so turns through the rotation. Working around that, seems like he just should be a pretty solid fantasy option on the bump.
Mike Leake has tossed a quality start in 3-straight outings. The last two it’s been four runs though just two earned. That’s five earned runs and three walks over the three outings. Look, if you’ve followed my work at any point in the past you’ve probably had your fill of Leake. I’ve referred to him as Mr. Average so many times through the years. Through nine starts, its been more of the same for Leake as he’s posted a 4.00 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. He even has a five-years best in strikeouts, though it’s just 6.83 per nine. Say it with me folks… Mr. Average is back.
Aaron Nola has disappointed. No way around it. At least he has more than a strikeout per inning. That’s about the extent of his work this season that matches his effort from last season. Three times in nine outings, he’s failed to complete five innings (one of those outings included a rain delay). Just twice in the previous two seasons did that happen. Let’s go in parts. (1) Nola has thrown his fastball two percent less than last season and upped his curveball rate three percent. His pitch is the same (the change up is within half a percentage point of usage). (2) Nola’s swinging strike rate has caved. Last year it was an elite 12.4 percent. This season the number is a career worst at 8.2 percent. (3) Nola has posted a first pitch strike rate of 67 percent the last two years, an elite mark. This season the mark has tumbled to a terrible 55 percent. That’s awful. He’s just not throwing strike one enough. (4) Nola has seen the number if pitches he throws in the strike zone dip from 46.3 percent, his career mark, to 40.2 percent this season. He’s just not in the strike zone enough. (5) Since he’s not getting ahead, batters are being patient, not worried about falling behind and having to tussle with the curve. Batters have a 39.4 percent swing rate this season. The mark was way up at 47.0 percent last season. None of the above is good. None of the above suggests he’s hurt though, and given that fact there still has to be some level of hope that it all snaps back into place with Nola. Know though, that that odds of a guy looking this “off” over nine outings, then to return to elite levels, is pretty low. Better? Yes. To last year’s levels? No.
Joe Musgrove was great at the start of May. Then he allowed 15 runs (13 earned) over two starts and he sucked. Last time out, it was seven scoreless innings. All told, he has a 3.59 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. That’s still a wee bit better than I think should be expected, but the point is the point. You need to take the long view with these guys. Thinking about how many twists Musgrove has taken the last 17 days should be illustrative of why patience is the key with players.
Is this the right way to beat traffic?
Chris Paddack has made eight starts. He’s yet to throw more than 92 innings in an outing. He’s been great, though last time out was a bit of a hiccup (6 R, 3 ER, in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers). Nothing to worry about at this point.
Freddy Peralta is being replaced in the rotation by Chase Anderson Saturday. Starting Friday, Peralta will be available out of the bullpen. Way back in his first breakdown written by yours truly, in May of last year, I touched on my belief that Peralta might be better served moving to the bullpen. There is no doubting the dominant stuff, 10.82 punchouts and many a rough at-bat for a hitter, but he continues to have issues locating his pitches and with only two pitches – his third pitch is a change-up he throws 2.8 percent of the time – he just doesn’t have enough weapons to attack a lineup multiple times.
Caleb Smith has dropped his ERA nearly two runs this season, down to 2.25, and his WHIP amazes at 0.92. He also has 12 punchouts per nine innings with a massive 16.5 percent swinging strike rate. He’s dominated. He’s also thrown at least five innings in all eight stars, and at least six innings in 6-of-8. Smith has also walked no more than three batters in any outing leading to a 2.63 BB/9 rate which is a full point below his 3.84 mark of 2018 and two points below his 4.82 mark as a rookie in 2017. Can he sustain that pace? It’s hard to think the answer is yes. His percentage of pitches that are in the strike zone is a three-year low, and his 59.9 first pitch strike rate also stinks. He’s been great, but batters have a .245 BABIP, are hitting .179, and his left on base percentage is 89.9. It would be wise to listen to inquiries if someone is willing to pay an ace-like price for the lefty.
Chris Sale has dominated of late. Wow has he. (1) He has back-to-back games with 14 Ks and no walks. Since 1920, only he and Dwight Gooden have ever done that. (2) His last outing allowed Sale to become the first pitcher ever with 17 Ks in just seven innings of work. (3) His last three starts over 21 innings: three earned runs, one walk and 41 strikeouts. He is back. Period.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
