One of the most important indicators of future success for NFL prospects is draft position. If you’re skeptical of that fact, check this out. While where a player goes on draft day isn’t the be-all and end-all of their career, historical trends suggest the earlier a player is drafted, the higher their likelihood of NFL success will be. Considering that general rule, and considering things like Best Ball drafts and pre-draft rookie drafts create a need for foresight on rookies, projecting draft position in an accurate manner is valuable.
Finding accurate ways to evaluate prospects for the NFL draft isn’t an easy process, but it is possible. The NFL leaves behind a lot of clues pertaining to what they look for, and over three decades of drafts in the seven-round format, many trends have evolved. While there’s a lot of factors to account for, and injury/off-field red flags are sometimes impossible to register, it’s a plausible process. The general perception of the NFL draft is a prospect’s stock shifts wildly throughout the months before the draft, but based on historical thresholds, this simply isn’t the case. A players value directly correlates to their production profile and how they test out athletically. While there are certainly nuance and differing scenarios, almost all factors are set after the combine. Two NFL teams may value a prospect in an incredibly different light, but over 32 teams, over seven rounds, over decades, there’s a balance.
The draft is done, and now it’s time to review what was a wild 2019 NFL draft. Each prospect will be reviewed and evaluated on how close the projected was to the actual, and then a general review of the position as a whole will commence.
DRAFT AFTERMATH
What a wild 2019 NFL draft! After round one, I took a walk outside and had a cigarette (and I don’t even smoke!). 1950’s style, with a fedora, trench coat and a thousand-yard stare. Like a detective who just failed on a case, Marquise Brown and Josh Jacobs perplexed me. Round One? A WR weighing under 170 pounds? A RB without a season of 1000+ yards from scrimmage? Sigh. Day one was tough. But thankfully, things returned to historical threshold ranges in the rounds to come.
One of the biggest errors that happen EVERY year during and after the draft is trying to find new trends and potential new directions the NFL is going. As humans, we love finding trends and patterns that can help give us clues to future answers. Unfortunately, a single draft will never provide nearly enough information to determine what is (or isn’t) a new NFL drafting trend. 2019 has been the “small WR renaissance.” The aforementioned Brown, Andy Isabella and Mecole Hardman being drafted high and pre-draft favorites Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon slipping have the public panicking. While those concerns, and ideas that come from them, have some merit based on a one-year sample, it falls apart over a decade or two evaluation. The NFL has, and always will, draft the best prospects. Over the last five seasons, there hasn’t been many, if any, elite prospects who have been on the bigger side. And prospects like Butler and Harmon dropping, while a little surprising, isn’t totally out of historical balance. The idea “the NFL values smaller WRs more and bigger WRs less now” is based on very shaky facts and ideas, and isn’t something worth believing, for now.
One reason to feel confident in dispelling these ideas? Just look to college football. Clemson WR Justyn Ross just finished off one of the most special true Freshman seasons of all-time, producing 1000 receiving yards and being an integral part of Clemson’s run to the national championship. Ross is listed at 6 foot 4 and 205 pounds and will likely be 215-to-220 by the time he hits the NFL. Ross will have no issues going in the top 10 in the NFL draft when the time comes. Ross is one of a few future bigger WR prospects in college football that have first-round potential. NFL drafts what college football gives them.
Before we begin, here’s a breakdown of the evaluation process. The same screenshots from the final projected draft position article will be posted, and next to “projected draft position” will be where the players actually went. The ACTUAL draft position will be labeled GREEN if it was the correct round, YELLOW if it was within two rounds and RED If it was three or more rounds apart. Enjoy!
QUARTERBACK
Correct: 7
Within 2 Rounds: 6
3+ Rounds Off: 4
This QB class was transparent throughout the process. As soon as Kyler Murray made his intentions clear to play football, he and Dwayne Haskins were locked in as first-round selections. Beyond that, there was a bit of “fake news” with Drew Lock. A lot of reports early in the offseason and around the combine had Lock linked to the Broncos, which ended up being correct, but turns out it was in the second round, not the first. Daniel Jones was an obvious one as well, so it’s tough to take credit for the earlier rounders, but I will. The surprises begin after that tier. While it makes sense in hindsight, it seemed plausible pre-draft a team would gamble on a third or fourth rounder with Tyree Jackson. Jackson posted a 4.59 40-yard dash at 249 pounds at the combine, and even if NFL teams didn’t see him as a future starter, there’s certainly an interesting athletic profile to use. Kyle Shurmur was another strong UDFA, as he was a successful starter for multiple seasons in the SEC. That’s certainly an interesting data point moving forward, and clearly, I overestimated his NFL connections and solid final season play. Brett Rypien was the biggest surprise beyond that. His solid production and overwhelming (positive) reviews from film-based evaluators made it seem like he was a lock to get his name called, but here we are.
RUNNING BACK
Correct: 8
Within 2 Rounds: 15
3+ Rounds Off: 7
Let’s be honest, Josh Jacobs was a gimme and I had too much pride to slot him in as a first rounder. Reports he was linked to the Raiders with the pick he ended up going were essentially telegraphed the final week prior to the draft. It’s still shocking a RB went in round one without accumulating a season with 1,000 or more yards from scrimmage, but there was enough leaked info to trust he was close to the draft. It’s hard from a projection standpoint to make that assertion without athletic testing, but between him and a round one WR that shall not be named (Marquise Brown), new things are bound to happen. The shocks come with Myles Gaskin and Mike Weber. Considering the context of J.K. Dobbins and the crazy Ohio State talent overall, I believed the NFL would give Weber the benefit of the doubt. They disagreed. Gaskin was an uber-productive RB for a good power-5 team for four seasons. His athletic testing was clearly what did him in, but overall, it seems logical to bet on his strong production profile. Really the only other BIG surprises were Devin Singletary and Alexander Mattison. Both players were mediocre-to-bad athletic testers but posted good production profiles for small schools (Boise State and Florida Atlantic). Hitting the third round is a huge boost to their future success probability, and they’re worth being very interested in for rookie drafts. It’s really hard to see what to shift from an evaluation standpoint. Neither player checks top three round boxes from a historical threshold standpoint, specifically Singletary and his athletic testing. Those two will be prospects I spend more time reviewing this offseason.
WIDE RECEIVER
Correct: 11
Within 2 Rounds: 24
3+ Rounds Off: 6
This was easily the most difficult year for evaluating WRs I’ve been through from a draft position perspective (Four seasons). Over the last four seasons, early round prospects have been very simple to project, but this year was not the case. Between Kelvin Harmon, Emanuel Hall and Diontae Johnson, there were some absolutely strange picks based on historical trends. Hall tested out as a truly elite athlete for the WR position and was a featured weapon for an SEC team over multiple seasons. Him not only dropping, but going undrafted indicates to me something extracurricular was going on in his case. Injuries were certainly a huge issue for Hall throughout his career, and they followed him throughout his four seasons. I’ll take the L, but it was shocking. Harmon was a little easier to see with hindsight. His lackluster athletic testing and overall “good, but not great” production profile makes it plausible he could’ve dropped. His issues with separating and relying on his ball skills were clearly a holdup for NFL teams. Johnson going in the third round was the most perplexing draft pick. No surprise the Steelers drafted an undersized, small school WR prospect who thrived on special teams, but his painful athletic profile made him a cross off after the combine. Clearly, his 2017 season at Toledo was valued heavily, and that’s worth noting for the future. I gave in to groupthink on Hakeem Butler! Initially had his projected draft round in the third, but after a plethora of smart folks came out in belief he was an elite prospect, I overrode his lackluster production profile. The fourth round is a bit much, but Butler profiles like a prospect who would go in the third round most seasons.
TIGHT END
Correct: 11
Within 2 Rounds: 2
3+ Rounds Off: 8
This was an absolutely bizarre TE class. There was absolutely no middle ground on my predictions. Either it was dead on or way off (beyond Foster Moreau). The NFL valued Dawson Knox, Kahale Warring, Josh Oliver and Drew Sample MUCH more than I expected, despite them (beyond Oliver) having little-to-no actual college production. Knox and Sample were backups for most of their careers! Clearly, there’s something more to evaluate here, and this summer will be spent taking a much closer look at TE draft picks from the past. The NFL didn’t value Kaden Smith nearly as much as expected, and clearly, they didn’t think he fit the mold of the Stanford TEs who came before him. Because blocking is so important in TE evals, that is something worth investing time in improving my process. Overall though, the top-end of the class makes sense and were drafted where they were supposed to be selected.
