This weekend will likely be the biggest single FAAB day of the year because of a handful of prospects who have been promoted. We’ll be able to hash things out a bit better in Saturday’s FAAB Values piece with a few days of data, but for now, let’s take a look at the prospects in question. For now, we’ll omit starting pitchers Corbin Martin (RHP/HOU) and Shaun Anderson (RHP/SFG) and just concentrate on the four hitters: Keston Hiura (RH/2B/MLW), Oscar Mercado (RH/OF/CLE), Nicky Lopez (LH/2B/KCR) and Austin Riley (RH/OF/ATL).
Since most fantasy players outside of those in dynasty/keeper leagues who do deep dives into minor league players know very little about these four guys, much of their average FAAB cost this weekend will come down to what they do at the plate this week. The other important factor is staying power. Do any or all of these kids have a true path to sticking with their respective clubs for the rest of the season and can they manage to weather any slumps in the big leagues that could affect them getting sent back down. We’re obviously very skittish after the recent situations of Carter Kieboom and Nate Lowe. Two prospects called up last month who didn’t last long in the majors. Kieboom mainly because he looked absolutely lost at the plate at the major league level and Lowe more so a victim of a healthy Rays’ roster. Not to mention the lesson learned with top-200 preseason fantasy draft pick Garrett Hampson who struggled through these first two months and was subsequently demoted earlier this week. Hampson, Kieboom and Lowe should all likely be back in the majors at some point this season and very likely even produce fantasy-worthy numbers. But we don’t know when this may even occur and it would take injuries to current hitters in the lineup for us to even get to this point.
Let’s take a deeper dive into Hiura, Mercado, Lopez and Riley to see how they may work into our team plans and if anyone of them can be true difference-makers. To summarize before we deep dive, Hiura is the best all-around baseball player with All-Star pedigree, Mercado is the speedster who can provide a boost to our stolen base category, Riley is the best power bat of them all and the likeliest to slump at the plate because of his profile and Lopez might be the best contact hitter of the bunch who can provide value across three of five standard categories (R, AVG, SB).
Keston Hiura – I had the pleasure of seeing Hiura up close and personal at the Arizona Fall League back in November with dozens of my fantasy industry colleagues. Hiura crushed it there, winning the AFL MVP and easily looked like the best hitter out there – even better than Guerrero himself. The 22-year-old was the ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft and perhaps could have been drafted even higher if not for concern about an elbow injury that essentially made him a DH-only at college in UC Irvine. He’s not the best defender at second base but is one heck of a mature hitter already. Very quick hands and typically aggressive at the plate. Playing in the PCL certainly helps overstate his numbers but he’s someone who has always hit for average while also flashing a bit of pop and speed. As far as fantasy value is concerned, he’s my favorite of these four recent callups and a guy I can see sticking in this lineup for the rest of the season. The concern is: how does management feel about Travis Shaw and how will he fit back into the lineup when he returns from his IL stint?
Shaw has hit 30-plus homers in each of the past two seasons but struggled mightily through these first 40 games (.163/.266/.281). He could surely return to form with full at-bats kind of how we see Jesus Aguilar do after a prolonged slump recently. But will he even see full time at-bats again? With the arrival of Hiura, Mike Moustakas is moved back to his original, comfortable-with position of 3B and frankly, this offense will be better with this current setup. Mous will play his natural position again and Shaw can step into the lineup against right-handed pitching on occasion. I do believe Hiura would have to slump hard for a couple weeks with Shaw mashing simultaneously in order for Hiura to be demoted again. Anything can happen, but I do believe he’ll stay up. The question for your fantasy team you have to ask first is who are you using as your current 2B and MI? Second base isn’t particularly deep and there are truly only the following guys I’d rank ahead of Hiura rest-of-season (Altuve, Baez, Merrifield, Moncada, Torres, Villar, Gordon, Albies, Moustakas). I’d put him on the same level as guys like Lowe (TB), Marte (ARI), LeMahieu (NYY), Muncy (LAD), Odor (TEX), Chavis (BOS) and ahead of guys like Jeff McNeil, Cesar Hernandez, Jurickson Profar, Tommy La Stella, Kolten Wong. Hiura could be worth up to 30% of your remaining budget if you need that upgrade at 2B or MI and want some good, old fashioned five-category contribution. He fits this team well and should succeed.
Oscar Mercado– A big Cardinals’ prospect drafted in the second round in 2013, Mercado is only 24 and could have staying power on this Indians’ team going nowhere. There truly is very little reason for them to not let Mercado stick with the big club for the rest of the season. He stole 37, 38, 33 and 50 bags in his past four seasons and would instantly infuse a boost to your fantasy squad’s SB category. He made his debut in left field hitting seventh but could find himself hitting second or even leading off in this lineup. Currently veteran Jason Kipnis has been mired in the two-hole as the lefty bat separating their best right-handed hitters. Jose Ramirez has struggled and moved down to fifth in the lineup but at some point his bat will be fully flourishing again and they could insert Mercado as the #2 hitter between switch-hitting Francisco Lindor leading off and Ramirez hitting third again (Carlos Santana back to his cleanup slot). Mercado might struggle to adjust to big-league pitching and may not hit for average. He probably won’t hit for much power either as it’s clear his fantasy value will be carried by his abilities on the base paths. There truly isn’t much threat to his lineup slot though with Bradley Zimmer out since last season and Tyler Naquin hardly a threat. I’d consider a decent bid on Mercado if you have one of those rosters that truly needs the bags. Much of his value will be dictated by how he looks this week – if he can get on base and attempt to run. Luckily for us, a four-game series with the Orioles should help.
Nicky Lopez– We may have to just take what’s happening here at face value to understand that the Royals would very much love to see Lopez succeed as a rookie with the big club this year. After all, they’ve all but given up on Chris Owings and looks to have put Whit Merrifield in right field full time to let Lopez have at it as their everyday second baseman. A bit of confidence for him too as Lopez made his MLB debut hitting out of the coveted two-hole between Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi which would clearly be a valuable slot for fantasy should he stick there. He’s a left-handed bat with a high-contact, low-strikeout approach who can steal bases. That blends well with this group of rabbits that leads the league in stolen bases just as we all expected (41; Rangers/White Sox are distant seconds with 32 SB). Let’s keep an eye on if he can consistently get to hit second in this lineup this week before we pass judgement on his FAAB-day cost. On Thursday, the Royals wrap up a series with the Rangers (Lance Lynn on the mound) before three against the Angels (Matt Harvey, Griffin Canning, Tyler Skaggs).
Austin Riley– Riley is the big power bat here and the guy I’m least bullish on sticking with his big-league team this season. That’s mostly because there are a few things working against him. First of all, he’s always been a high-strikeout guy in the minors (over 25%) and clearly has a hole in his swing that could get worse at the big-league level. Also, Riley’s natural position is third base where the Braves currently pay big money to veteran Josh Donaldson. Riley played in the outfield at Triple-A this past week in preparation for this promotion and will start there while struggling veteran Ender Inciarte is on the IL and on the mend. Riley has been on a power feast in Triple-A leading all International League hitters with 15 homers – tied with two PCL guys (Astros’ prospect Yordan Alvarez and Dbacks’ brother-of-C.J., Kevin Cron). He should be in the lineup today for his debut against the Cardinals and Michael Wacha then Julio Teheran on Thursday before a three-game series with the Brewers at home (Chacin, Peralta, Woodruff). Reserving judgement here prior to my weekend FAAB article knowing full well that a couple of home runs this week could catapult him into the top prize of the free agent pool.
Be mindful of your roster’s weaknesses both positionally and categorically before making decisions on how much you plan on spending for these guys this weekend. Sure, it’s the biggest free agent bidding weekend to date but we still have countless pitching prospects (including Casey Mize) as well as Alvarez and Kyle Tucker making their way to the Astros eventually (or so we hope). Not to mention, we still have 75% of the season to go and many of our leaguemates make mistakes dropping studs they drafted who can be helpful to our fantasy teams. Let’s take the next few days to scout and then make our informed decisions this weekend.
