Austin Riley was a first-round draft pick out of high school in 2015 by the Braves. Pretty much all he has done since being drafted is hit. There is massive power in his bat, though there is also a lot of swing and miss to his game. Still, with an open spot on the roster, the Braves have made the decision to call up the young slugger to see what he’s got. Here’s a report on what he has to offer in the fantasy game.
22 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 220 lbs.
Position: Third Base (Fake Outfielder)
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2015 |
RK |
60 |
.304 |
12 |
40 |
36 |
2 |
.933 |
|
2016 |
A |
129 |
.271 |
20 |
80 |
68 |
3 |
.803 |
|
2017 |
A+, AA |
129 |
.275 |
20 |
74 |
71 |
2 |
.786 |
|
2018 |
RK, AA, AAA |
108 |
.294 |
19 |
70 |
61 |
1 |
.882 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
37 |
.299 |
15 |
39 |
32 |
0 |
1.057 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.284 |
86 |
303 |
268 |
8 |
.854 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2018 |
54th |
79th |
97th |
|
2019 |
22nd |
30th |
38th |
THE SKILLS
From the preseason rookie report.
A strapping, 6’3”, 220 lbs., Austin is pretty much a prototypical third base prospect. His overall offensive game includes power, and he brings a bit more athleticism than one would think at first glance. However, his contactability is poor, to say the least. Last season he struck out 129 times in 408 at-bats, a 31.6 percent K-rate, and that continues a career filled with contact woes. Though he’s hit .282 in the minors, he’s not going to reach that level with his overall approach which also includes a 0.31 BB/K ratio. It also didn’t help his development to miss more than a month last season with a knee injury. His game has a lot of Kyle Seager in it, with more swing and miss of course. The addition of Josh Donaldson crushes Riley’s short-term outlook and means, barring injury/trade, that he has little chance at being a full-time player in 2019.
Over his last 18 games in the minors he’s hit .391 with 13 homers and a 1.518 OPS.
Riley has hit 10 homers in 50 May at-bats.
He is on fire with the bat, so the promotion comes at an optimal time.
Let’s talk the power.
On the 20-80 scale scouts use to rank players, Riley sits in the 65-70 range in power in most locales. That’s plus/plus power, the kind of stuff that can lead to 30 homers in the big leagues. Though he has the power to drive the ball out to the opposite field, he often gets a bit pull-happy. Given his talent with the lumber, it would be beneficial if he just let the ball come into him and focused more on hitting it hard versus trying to jack it into the seats (more on the approach in a bit). A quick look at his batted ball profile shows that in Double-A last season he had a 49 percent pull rate with a 48 percent pull rate at Triple-A. This season at Triple-A the mark is 49 percent. That’s by no means a dangerous level, but it is something to think about when we get to the approach segment of the breakdown.
Riley isn’t going to beat a lot of grounders out, so the fact that his game is getting the ball in the air is ideal. Still, his two stops last season at Double (0.86) and Triple-A (0.94), and his work this season, show a less than ideal GB/FB ratio if we’re looking for batting average. If we are looking for power though, it’s what you want to see (the current mark of 0.69 is taking things too far as a 49 percent fly ball rate could leave his batting average in peril). Here is his minor league spray chart for hits.
Let’s talk the approach.
He has long been somewhat dogged by questions about his bat speed and if he could catch up with premium velocity on the inner half. Therefore, his ability to cover the strike zone has come into question in many circles. He should get credit for working on shortening up his swing a bit, as he’s more direct to the ball now than when he was drafted which gives the appearance of his hands quickening (it’s likely more of a path thing, but the results should be similar).
Swing and miss is part of his game. Nothing is gonna change that right now. That said, the 25-29 percent range he’s been at in the K-percentage department at all his stops since the start of last season aren’t out of whack with that we’re seeing at the major league level right now. If he can transition to the bigs with a mark of 27 percent, his offensive game should be alright. However, if big leaguers exploit his weaknesses and that number starts to rise to 30 percent, there should be real concern.
PLAYING TIME
We all know that Ender Inciarte is headed to the injured list with lower back tightness.
Let’s play a game.
How many Gold Gloves does Inciarte have?
The answer is three – all the last three years.
How many games has Riley play in the outfield as a professional?
The answer is four.
Riley has one more game played in the outfield than Inciarte owns Gold Gloves.
I know in this day an age of offense and launch angles no one cares about defense, but come on here. I’m sure that Ronald Acuna will be fine in center field, but is Riley really ready to play daily in left field in the Major Leagues? Does defense matter so little to teams that they just don’t care anymore? It’s always possible that Riley, who clearly is in better shape than he was in years past, can handle the outfield, but it is asking a lot (he could be removed late in games for a defensive replacement). Let’s not forget that though he has a strong arm, he has never been looked at as a top shelf athlete with huge defensive acumen. It’s a bonus though for his fantasy outlook though as all services will be listing him as a third baseman allowing him to pick up a second defensive position in the outfield.
Second, it’s always possible that when Inciarte is healthy that he could return to the lineup. Perhaps the Braves believe that arbitration doesn’t matter after signing Acuna and Ozzie Albies to long-term extensions, but there’s still a chance Riley could be returned to the minors for a few weeks to maintain his Super 2 status. It’s gotta be a thought at least. If Riley comes out blasting, he can certainly capture the left field job with Inciarte slotting in as a fourth outfielder/late inning defensive replacement.
CONCLUSION
The truth is this. Even with his minor league success this season, Riley is going to swing and miss. He is going to strike out. If the Braves are willing to let him rip away with the lack of putting the ball in play, than so be it (we all know most teams are accepting this approach nowadays). Just realize that in the fantasy game that he’s going to be a zero in the stolen base department and his batting average doesn’t profile to be anything other than league average kinda stuff.
The problem with profiling Riley is two-fold. (1) We have to worry about whether or not he will remain in the starting lineup once Inciarte is set to return. (2) Despite his tremendous success in the minors this season, there will be a lot of pressure on the youngster. Not only will he have to produce with the bat, but he is learning a new position on the fly. For whatever reason he’s often started slowly at new levels, and that could play into his short-term fantasy viability as well.
If I had to place a name for comparison sake, and I hate doing this cause it’s not as simple as just listing a name, I’d expect him to be on the Mike Moustakas level of offensive production – if everything goes right that is.
FAAB OUTLOOK: The bidding will be fierce this weekend. I can tell you this. I’m not bidding 40+ percent of my FAAB to add Riley, but if you want to grab him that’s likely what it’s gonna cost. I see the bidding settling in at the 30-50 percent range in most leagues so you will need to be super aggressive with your bidding. Might you just be better served adding Miguel Sano for 5-10 percent? Something to think long and hard about.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
