The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
Jeremiah Holloman (WR, Georgia)
The group of WRs at Georgia did a great job of spreading out production in 2018, creating a lot of chaos from an evaluation standpoint. Between Riley Ridley, Mecole Hardman, Terry Godwin and Holloman, there simply weren’t enough targets to go around to showcase them all. Since Holloman was only a true Sophomore, compared to the rest all being draft-eligible, it makes sense why he’d have to pay his dues. Holloman finished 2018 with 24 receptions, 418 receiving yards (17.4 per reception) and five touchdowns. This was a great small sample size to work off from an evaluation standpoint, as a lot of it came against top-end competition. Holloman is listed at 6 foot 2 and 200 pounds, bringing a big body and solid size to some very appealing deep ball skills. There’s certainly a skill set that warrants more targets in 2019. With all three of Godwin, Ridley and Hardman headed to the NFL, there should be a clear role set for 2019, potentially even of the featured variety. Holloman would never be confused for subtle after the reception, relying on his straight-line speed to create bad angles for defenders. Again, it’s far from subtle, but there’s a lot of examples where defenders lose their angle and bounce off him. There’s a lot of work for Holloman to do before he can come to fruition as a prospect, but he’s set up perfect to be a main contributor on a now perennial contender.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 2nd-to-4th Round – Holloman has a lot of work to do, but the raw tools are there to be a top three round selection. There were a few receptions where Holloman flashed potentially elite speed after the catch. Based on some of the athletes who have come out of Georgia the last couple of seasons, his athletic profile could be special.
Similar Prospect(s): Rueben Randle, Nick Toon
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE, Missouri)
Okwuegbunam has been one of the best receiving TEs in the nation over the last two seasons. Listed at 6 foot 5 and 260 pounds, Okwuegbunam has caught 17 touchdowns in his first two seasons and has also accumulated 881 receiving yards on his 72 receptions. Yes, he plays in a pass-happy offense, but a TE producing that much as an underclassman is VERY notable. It hasn’t been an easy target distribution chart to climb either. Between J’Mon Moore and Emanuel Hall, he’s played with legitimate NFL talent in both the years he’s been producing. There doesn’t appear to be an elite athletic profile like there’s been in some of the top TE prospects over the last couple of seasons (Noah Fant, O.J. Howard and Evan Engram come to mind), but Okwuegbunam certainly has the requisite burst to allow his special ball skills to take over. Missouri has allowed Okwuegbunam to run a wide array of routes and also perform as a blocker. He’s going to come into the NFL with experience in a lot of areas, and there could be avenues to where there’s early-career production. Heading into 2019, the Missouri offense will be in major transition. Moving on from QB Drew Lock and Hall will create a new era of offense, and between Okwuegbunam and true Sophomore Jalen Knox, there should be optimism despite the changes.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 2nd-to-3rd Round – There’s clearly an NFL skill set teams will covet, and very likely on day two. Okwuegbunam could slide a bit potentially depending on athletic testing, but based on what’s been put on film so far, there doesn’t appear to be limitations.
Similar Prospect(s): Jace Amaro
Collin Johnson (WR, Texas)
Johnson has gotten a lot of folks excited over the last three seasons. His enormous size and highlight plays are truly something worthy of excitement. However, after not declaring for the NFL draft in his Junior season, there are some serious questions to be asking. A player with this body type (listed at 6 foot 6 and 220 pounds) and hype overall should be confident in his future draft position, and the fact he’s not says something. The player advisory board and their evaluation methods are a mystery to everyone, but them not coming back with glowing reviews is a good sign a prospect has a lot of work to do. Johnson is not a subtle athlete but is known for making some spectacular plays in the air. Johnson will almost assuredly be deployed on deep targets in the NFL and will very likely be an effective red-zone weapon as well. Johnson has been at Texas for three seasons and has incrementally improved from a production standpoint every season (as would be expected). Johnson finished off 2018 with 985 receiving yards and seven TDs but was only second on the team in both categories (Lil’Jordan Humphrey had 1176 receiving yards and nine TDs). After out-receiving Humphrey in 2017, it was a strange transition he would take the secondary role in 2018, and that’s probably one of the main reasons Johnson chose to stay for his Senior season.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 3rd-to-5th Round – Based on how things are situated currently, Johnson is careening towards a very similar draft position path as former Iowa State WR Hakeem Butler. Butler ended up going in the fourth round of the NFL draft, despite having incredible athleticism, size and great final season production. Being out-produced by teammates who aren’t future NFL draft picks (Allen Lazard for Butler, Humphrey for Johnson) are really bad indicators for NFL draft position.
Similar Prospect(s): Hakeem Butler, Martavis Bryant
Gabriel Davis (WR, UCF)
UCF is one of the best (or worst, depending on who you are) storylines over the last couple of seasons, and while their small school designation has been made very clear by the national media, there’s been some major talent that’s come out of that college over the last couple of seasons. With WR Dredrick Snelson surprisingly declaring at the end of the 2018 season, this opens up a significant amount of volume. Davis was a player who slowly became the top receiving option in the offense as the 2018 season went along. He finished 2018 with 815 receiving yards and seven TDs, and that could grow significantly in 2019. Tre Nixon is also a talented WR prospect and should absorb a lot of Snelson’s production, but ultimately, that won’t hinder Gabriel from thriving in a featured role. Davis is built solidly, listed at 6 foot 3 and 212 pounds. He’s a big WR who thrives on his size-adjusted speed. There’s still a lot to prove from a ball-skill perspective, but overall, he’s shown enough to believe he can develop into a really solid deep threat prospect.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 2nd-to-4th Round – Davis should test out well but has to in order to average out being from a small school. His size, lack of injury history or off-field issues, along with projected athletic testing, should boost him into a day two selection.
Similar Prospect(s): Aaron Dobson
