The Indians are calling up outfield prospect Oscar Mercado. His bat isn’t great, but with his ability to steals bases he immediately becomes a player that we need to discuss picking up in the majority of fantasy leagues. Will the bat play though?
24 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/ Right
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 195 lbs
Position: Outfield
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2013 |
RK |
42 |
.209 |
1 |
14 |
18 |
12 |
.597 |
|
2014 |
RK |
60 |
.224 |
3 |
25 |
41 |
26 |
.609 |
|
2015 |
A |
117 |
.254 |
4 |
44 |
70 |
50 |
.638 |
|
2016 |
A+ |
125 |
.215 |
0 |
27 |
50 |
33 |
.567 |
|
2017 |
AA |
120 |
.287 |
13 |
46 |
76 |
38 |
.769 |
|
2018 |
AAA |
132 |
.278 |
8 |
47 |
85 |
37 |
.738 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
30 |
.294 |
4 |
15 |
24 |
14 |
.891 |
|
|
|
626 |
.254 |
33 |
218 |
364 |
210 |
.678 |
THE SKILLS
Mercado can run, and his wheels are where his fantasy value rests. Per 162 games in the minors, Mercado has swiped an average of 54 bags. Alas, his 71.4 percent success rate on his 294 steal attempts is far from ideal and basically not much better than the bottom end of what running should result in (if you aren’t successful on at least 67 percent of your steal attempts you are actually harming your team’s ability to score runs). For a guy with as much speed as he has, it’s a slight concern that his success rate in the minors is on the low end of acceptable.
As for the bat… it’s possible that he will not hit enough to be a Major League regular. Oscar might end up as a 4th outfield option, following in the footsteps of a guy like Jarrod Dyson. Mercado has a line drive stroke that offers little power. With an upside in the homer column about 10 big flies a season, like so many other base stealers, will cause you to run a deficit in the homer column if you’re starting him. So, to be clear, you will have to game plan around Mercado by making sure you have power around the rest of your lineup.
Mercado has hit .281 in 162 games at Triple-A. Mercado has a mere 17.3 percent K-rate at Triple-A, but he should be at that level given his lack of pop. His walk rate of 9.5 percent is decent, though not much to look at. All told, he’s at 0.55 in the BB/K column at Triple-A, and that works. About that batting average, a bit more. Though he’s hit .300 against lefties in 30 at-bats this season, his recent work against lefties leaves something to be desired. At Triple-A last season the mark was .206 in 34 at-bats with the Indians club. At Double-A in 2017 the mark was .226 over 124 at-bats. In 2016 at High-A he hit .250 in 104 at-bats. His ability to hit lefties is an open-ended question. There’s also the fact that his GB/FB ratio has been 1.10 or lower in 5-of-6 minor league stops since 2015. He really would benefit an awful lot by hitting the ball on the ground more, but alas, that just doesn’t seem likely to happen at this point.
To sum it up his bat, even if he maximizes his hit tool, it might never rise to the level of him being anything other than ‘just a guy’ kinda stuff with the twig in his hands. His wheels could be his only true fantasy asset.
PLAYING TIME
The Indians put Tyler Naquin on the IL with a strained calf. He could return on May 22nd. That leaves their outfield/DH situation with Carlos Gonzalez (.254 wOBA), Leonys Martin (.305), Jordan Luplow (.332) and Jake Bauers (.292). It’s safe to say that none has excelled to this point. In to that mix comes Mercado. The Indians’ newest outfielder has played left field 20 times, center field 278 times and right field 14 times in his minor league career (he’s even played 280 games at shortstop, though the last time was 2016). How long will Mercado remain this go-round though? It may be a short stay, and that’s way more concerning that what spot in the outfield he takes over. “We kind of made sure they told him that this could be short-term,” said manager Terry Francona. “But I think even if it is, it’s a good way to get a lot of the firsts out of the way. The nerves, the whatever, the jitters, however you want to put it because I think we feel like this kid’s part of our future. And maybe in the meantime, he helps us win a couple games.”
CONCLUSION
The manager, above, notes that Mercado’s stay may not be a long one. If you are going to ignore that comment, realize you should be moderate with your FAAB/Waiver-wire bidding (more on that in a second). Mercado could steal 30 bases at the major league level, but he lacks power, isn’t likely to produce a batting average of note either, and simply doesn’t have a current setting in Cleveland that suggests, without question, that he’s playing every day the rest of the way. I would much prefer that you add Mallex Smith over Mercado if you’re looking for a speed boost to your fantasy team, by a good deal.
Recommended FAAB Bid (realizing that this is a general statement and may not applicable to your particular league): Be very reserved unless you are just flat out desperate for speed. Playing time, and the overall bat, suggest a bid of 10 percent or less in mixed formats.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
