Keston Hiura has one of the best hit tools amongst all minor leaguers. He has been called up by the Brewers to give that hit tool a working at the big-league level. What does the can’t miss kid have to offer? What role will he fill for the Brew Crew? How should he fit into your fantasy squad? Continue reading to find out.
22 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 5’11”, 190 lbs.
Position: Second Base
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2017 |
RK, A |
42 |
.371 |
4 |
33 |
32 |
2 |
1.033 |
|
2018 |
A+, AA |
123 |
.293 |
13 |
43 |
74 |
15 |
.821 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
37 |
.333 |
11 |
26 |
23 |
4 |
1.106 |
|
|
|
202 |
.316 |
28 |
102 |
129 |
21 |
.914 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2018 |
47th |
32nd |
56th |
|
2019 |
17th |
6th |
20th |
THE SKILLS
Here is the preseason writeup on Hiura.
The dude hit .442 his final college season with a short, compact right-handed swing. He has great barrel feel with top shelf bat speed that allows him to drive liners gap to gap. His hit tool is elite. He hit .371 in 42 games in 2017 in the minors and last season he went .293.357/.464 over 123 games. He has a 20-homer bat, but though he swiped 15 bags last season, he really doesn’t profile as a 15-steal threat at the big-league level though he does have good instincts and is considered a strong base runner. We could be looking at a Scooter Gennett type of performer if everything comes together, though we’re not saying that will happen in 2019, that’s down the line (he will begin the season in the minors). Worst case, it’s hard to envision Keston not being a quality big-league performer for a long time.
Not much has changed since I wrote that back in January. Well, Keston’s actually gone out and improved his outlook with some stellar work over his first 37 games at the Triple-A level with 11 homers and massive 1.106 OPS.
As my buddy Jeff Mans always says ‘everyone hits 25 homers anymore.’ Hiura is on pace to blast past that level this season, though you might note that I did suggest above that he was a 20-homer bat. Still holding on to that claim, even if he gets to that 25 number overall this season cause of that blazing minor league start. His minor league work has been aided by an absurd 35.5 percent HR/FB ratio. It would be slightly surprising If he settled in at the big-league level with a mark half that. He might even end up about a third of that. His current 1.20 GB/FB ratio is about a tenth lower than his mark last season, so it’s not looking like he’s likely to post a fly ball rate above the league average, hence the somewhat muted homer outlook.
Keston hit only .270 against lefties this season in 37 at-bats, and last year he hit .269 against lefties at Double-A, so there might be some early, and backwards, split data to keep an eye on with Hiura, but that should do nothing to decrease your interest in the hit tool. Not a patient hitter, his last four minor league stops have produced BB/K marks of 0.29, 0.30, 0.39 and 0.38, Hiura will have to remain within himself and let the game come to him. But the kid can stroke it (check out his hit chart). Not only do the numbers show it, but the scouting report does as well. Hiura has strong wrists, impressive bat speed, and the barrel awareness that scouts rave about. Not saying he will hit .300 this year, but if Hiura settles in and hits .300 at the big-league level the next few years, no one will be the least bit surprised.
He has swiped 15 bases on 22 attempts his last 110 games, but again, it would be a surprise if he reached double-digit thefts this season with the Brewers, even if he plays full time. Speaking of that…
PLAYING TIME
As of this writing, here is what we know.
Hiura has been called to the big leagues.
Travis Shaw has been placed on the DL with a wrist/hand issues that he’s been battling since April.
The Brewers designated for assignment Corey Spangenberg to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Hiura.
Then it gets a little tricky.
You can’t think the Brewers will want Hiura to spend much if any time on the bench, so he will either be starting for the Brewers or in Triple-A. So, we need to be honest about the situation with Shaw as it seems likely Hiura’s roster spot comes down to him with Mike Moustakas pretty much certain to move back to third full-time with the other two men battling for the second base gig.
Shaw has been awful hitting .163 with a massive 32.5 percent K-rate. He just hasn’t been putting the ball in play nearly enough. Still, teams rarely forget/give up on guys who are 29 years old and coming off back-to-back seasons of 30 homers and 85 RBI (Shaw was one of only 10 men in baseball to hit both numbers each of the last two seasons). That creates an obvious dilemma. What happens when Shaw is ready to return? Do the Brewers simply forget about him? Maybe the do if Hiura is hitting .350, but if he’s hitting .250… The usual caveats need to apply here with playing time for a rookie, and again, Shaw has been one of the better producers in baseball the last two season for an infielder, something that shouldn’t be forgotten because of a terrible 40 games this season.
A final note. The Brewers have a strong offense when everyone is clicking, so while Hiura seems to profile as an excellent #2 hitter at the moment, his first game has him hitting 7th in the Brew Crew’s lineup. Frankly, he seems likely to hit 6th or lower most nights to begin his career which needs to be factored into his fantasy outlook.
CONCLUSION
Hiura should be added everywhere. There is still the usual concern about potential playing time, but the dude can flat out mash. His bat should settle in quickly and allow him to produce along the levels of guys like Howie Kendrick / D.J. LeMahieu type with a bit more pop, but it’s also a question how those skills will play out the first time around for any youngster. Without top end power, or top end speed, it’s tough to see Hiura being a top-10 second baseman the rest of the season even if he plays daily. Still, the hit tool is impressive, his batting average should help, and that makes him a middle infield option in mixed leagues.
Recommended FAAB Bid (realizing that this is a general statement and may not applicable to your particular league): I would be comfortable taking a shot on Hiura around the 25 percent or your season long FAAB levels. However, I could see bids in aggressive leagues blowing past 40 percent (last season Juan Soto went for 41 percent in my 15-team Tout Wars League – note, Ray the Rookie Hater, was the guy who bid that much).
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
