Bassitt has been impressive for the A’s. Freeland, hasn’t for the Rockies. What are the concerns with German of the Yankees? Are there any? Two veteran lefties – Gio Gonzalez and J.A. Happ – are getting outs. Miley is getting tons of outs too, but how? Minor and Odorizzi are having extremely effective starts to their 2019 effort. Richards has the changeup, and lots of walks. E-Rod is forever gonna be troublesome, or has he figured it out? Soroka has been amazing for the Braves. Will it last? Wainwright has actually been effective. Who would have thought?
Chris Bassitt wasn’t supposed to be able to hang on to a rotation spot with the Athletics, but he’s pitching like he believes he can hold off Jesus Luzardo, Daniel Mengden, Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton. Bassitt has been sharp through four outings though punching out 31 batters over 24.2 innings. He’s extremely unlikely to hold on to his 12 percent swinging strike rate. His first pitch strike rate of 59 percent is below the league average. He’s been blasted for five homers, though that is sample size driven (23.8 HR/FB). He’s a solid arm, a 4/5 starter in the big leagues, who is in a nice groove. This skill set does not suggest dominance, or that he’s a great bet to still be starting for this team in August.
Kyle Freeland hasn’t pitched up to last years standards. I’m not surprised, and neither should you be if you read his preseason Player Profile.
Domingo German has been fantastic for the Yankees (7-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.14 K/9) staking his claim to an all-star birth in the early going. His arm is big, and the results show a man possessed with the talent to carve up any lineup he faces. Here are German’s innings pitched totals the last four years: 2015 (zero innings – Tommy John), 2016 (49.2 innings), 2017 (123.1 innings) and 2018 (93.1 innings). He has no innings on his arm, and note that he only threw 10.2 innings last season as he dealt with an ulnar nerve issue. Folks, he’s thrown 100-innings twice in his career, and he’s currently on pace for about 190. Just ain’t happening. It would be surprising if he was allowed to throw more than 150-innings, which should be a significant concern if you own German. You can ride it out, realizing that your investment was so minimal that if he rocks 150-innings your fine, or you can listen to trade offers with the realization that he could be a ticking time bomb.
Gio Gonzalez has made three starts for the Brew Crew, and the result is four walks and three runs allowed. He’s really more of an innings eater at this point, he did regress last year statistically and the punchouts were way down as he posted his worst walk rate in a decade. Thinking streaming option with Gio versus a hold in mixed leagues.
J.A. Happ has allowed six runs his last four starts to drop his ERA to 4.36 on the year. We’re still looking for the strikeout though as he has 17 strikeouts in 24.2 innings in those four outings even though his 9.8 percent swinging strike rate is right on his average the last three years. Of bigger concerns is the continuation of the 42 percent fly ball rate he posted last season after 3-straight years under 36 percent. With a 42.7 percent mark at present, he’s at them whim of the HR/FB gods, and not only would his 16.1 percent mark be a career worst, it would also be a fourth straight year of a rising mark. It should stabilize a bit, but he’s in a bad park to be allowing that many fly balls.
Wade Miley is pretty doo-doo. Yes, that is a technical term. He’s kinda like that old pair of shoes you own that your significant other keeps trying to give away, yet you always manage to save them from the giveaway pile at the last moment. Miley struck out 5.6 batters per nine last year, and he’s at 5.96 this year. In this day and age, with the average mark approaching nine, he’s simply falling massively behind. Not just that, the lack of punchouts also leaves him open to more balls put in play, and more potential damage. He somehow avoided angering the BABIP gods last season with a career best .269 mark, and this year the mark is .241 so either (A) he murdered someone and made an offering in the offseason to the gods or (B) there are a whole lotta hits about to come his way. He gets grounders, and the walks are way down, but his margin for error is about the thickness of a human hair. #PlayingWithFire
Mike Minor has been good for a good deal of time. Here are his numbers his last 210.2 innings since the start of last season: 15-11, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7.90 K/9 with a 3.36 K/BB ratio. That’s a pretty extended period of time with some impressive work. He’s been even sharper in eight outings this season with an 8.89 K/9 a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.68 ERA. It’s unlikely he holds the K-rate up quite so high, and pitching in the AL in Texas ain’t a good thing at all, but he’s a professional pitcher, in a nice groove, and he’s failed to throw six innings once in seven outings. That’s pretty legit.
Jake Odorizzi is now 5-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. A lot has been made about his usage, and it’s legit. He’s not being allowed to go deep into games, because historically speaking teams have destroyed him the more times, they have faced him in a game. Here are his OPSA each time through the order for his career: 1st (.639), 2nd (.695), 3rd (.831) and 4th (1.769). That being said, the marks this year are still pretty stupid good: 1st (.501 in 70 PAs), 2nd (.438 in 63 PAs), 3rd (.509 in 32 PAs). He has a better chance than in years past of remaining a full season mixed league option if used in this manner, note the significant decline in his use the third time through an order this season, but realize that all three of those segment numbers will go up, substantially. This guy ain’t Max Scherzer.
Trevor Richards is in that Kyle Hendricks mold of when they are on, life is good. When they are off, things get messy. Richards started off solidly this season, but things have gotten messy with the young Marlin. His last three outings he’s allowed nine runs, which ain’t awful, but he’s also averaged 4.1 innings pitched which is. He’s also been taken deep six times in four outings. With his stuff it’s pretty simple. If he keeps walking 4.89 batters per nine innings, he has absolutely no chance to be anything other than a spot starter in fantasy, at best.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been destroyed by lefties this season. The 26 he has faced have three homers and a .452 wOBA. He’s also been a disaster on the road with a 6.98 ERA, a 2.11 K/BB ratio, a 1.40 HR/9 and a .403 wOBA. We’re talking small sample sizes of course, but I personally think that its indicative of what E-Rod is – a solid pitcher, but not one that seems destined to live up the lofty expectation’s folks place on him each year.
Michael Soroka has a 2.28 ERA through 10 big league starts. That’s legit. Let’s dig a bit. Dude gets made grounders, 51 percent of batted balls, but he’s been insanely fortunate to have a 2.9 HR/FB ratio, which is one of the reasons his SIERA (3.92) and xFIP (3.57) suggest that his raw ERA isn’t indicative of who he has been on the bump. Soroka has a 10.3 swinging strike rate, slightly below the league average. Soroka has a 60.8 percent first pitch strike rate, just on the league average. Soroka has an O-swing rate of 31.3 percent (swings at pitches outside the strike zone). The league rate is 30.1 percent, so he’s not exactly getting a lot of folks to swing at stuff outside the zone. He has thrown generated a swing rate of 46.5 versus the league average of 46.0 percent. When I add it all up, I’m left with the obvious conclusion that folks are simply expecting too much from Soroka, and he’s more of a sell than buy at the moment.
Adam Wainwright has surprised me by actually being effective this year for the Cardinals. Remove the beating against the Cubs and his ERA (3.20) and WHIP (1.23) over seven outings would be pretty solid. He doesn’t miss bats (7.68 per nine), but he still gets grounders, that 1.73 GB/FB ratio is just more than a tenth above his career mark, but he has been saddled by a 19 percent HR/FB ratio (the last three years the mark is about 12.5 percent). He’s a usable piece… for now.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
