Jordan Lyles was a non-entity in the fantasy game some eight weeks ago. Now, after seven starts, his numbers leap off the page to the point that he must be factored into the mix in the fantasy game. Is his blazing start a flash in the pan? Does the right have actual staying power, or would you be best served to let someone else worry about a fella who has very little chance of being a season long starting pitching option of value in 2019?
28 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 230 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
GB/FB |
|
|
Minors |
564.0 |
33-36 |
3.89 |
1.35 |
8.3 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2011 |
MLB |
94.0 |
2-8 |
5.36 |
1.41 |
6.41 |
2.49 |
1.34 |
1.08 |
|
2012 |
MLB |
141.1 |
5-12 |
5.09 |
1.42 |
6.30 |
2.67 |
1.27 |
1.86 |
|
2013 |
MLB |
141.2 |
7-9 |
5.59 |
1.51 |
5.91 |
3.11 |
1.08 |
1.60 |
|
2014 |
MLB |
126.2 |
7-4 |
4.33 |
1.37 |
6.39 |
3.27 |
0.85 |
2.01 |
|
2015 |
MLB |
49.0 |
2-5 |
5.14 |
1.49 |
5.51 |
3.49 |
0.37 |
2.03 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
58.2 |
4-5 |
5.83 |
1.65 |
4.91 |
4.30 |
0.61 |
2.06 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
69.2 |
1-5 |
7.75 |
1.69 |
7.11 |
2.84 |
2.07 |
1.57 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
87.2 |
3-4 |
4.11 |
1.27 |
8.62 |
2.87 |
1.23 |
1.22 |
|
2019 |
MLB |
38.2 |
3-1 |
2.09 |
1.09 |
8.15 |
3.49 |
0.70 |
0.98 |
|
Career |
807.1 |
34-53 |
5.13 |
1.44 |
6.52 |
3.07 |
1.11 |
1.59 |
2010: Baseball America had him as the 91st best prospect in baseball.
2011: BA had him 42nd while Baseball Prospectus had him 59th.
Rockies stats: 13-16, 5.22 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.76 K/9 over 281.0 innings
THE SKILLS
Thirty-five percent of his innings have been with the Rockies, so maybe you can write off some of the poor numbers above. Maybe.
The last time Jordan Lyles was a usable fantasy piece was… 2014? That’s only an accurate statement if usable means – spot starter.
Ok, let’s be honest. Jordan Lyles has never been a usable fantasy piece – ever.
The last three years the numbers are ghastly: 8-14, 5.75 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 2.19 K/BB ratio over 216 innings. Moreover, Lyles started only 18 games out of the 113 appearances he made.
So how in the hell does he look like an all-star this season?
STRIKEOUT
Last season, for the first time in his big-league career, Lyles had a K/9 rate over 7.15 as it blew past that number at 8.62 per nine. It has to be noted that the mark was 9.7 as a reliever and much lower at 7.7 in his eight starts. So, we need to start off by thinking about 7.7 being the mark last season, and not 8.6.
Second, his swinging strike rate last season was a career best at 10.3 percent. That was his first season above 9.0 and that mark was still well short of the 10.7 league wide rate in 2018. This year the swinging strike rate has fallen all the way down to a mere 8.2 percent. How many pitchers struck out 8.15 batters per nine last seasons with a swinging strike rate of 8.2 percent or lower if they threw 100-innings? Well, there were only 15 pitchers who threw 100-innings last season with a swinging strike rate that low. Of that 15, three men made the cut: Tyler Chatwood, Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana. One, it happened rarely. Two, you should be concerned that only 15 of the 140 men who qualified last season had a mark that low in the swinging strike rate.
It would be a mistake to expect Lyles’ current strike out rate to continue, given that, and the fact that his O-swing mark, the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that he’s getting batters to swing at, is a four year low at 28.3 percent, and well off his career rate of 30.2 percent. If he isn’t getting batters to chase his pitches, he has no shot to keep the K-rate up.
WALK
Despite his success this year, Lyles has a 3.49 BB/9 rate, poor by pretty much any measure. Lyles has been under 2.90 the past two seasons and owns a career mark of 3.07, so he’s also been ineffective based on his established rate. This walk rate is also a bit distressing when you note that he has a 62.9 percent first pitch strike rate, well above his 59.6 percent career mark. So, he’s throwing more first pitch strikes than normal but he’s still also the owner of an elevated walk rate? In fact, he’s throwing just 42 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, and that’s his lowest rate in five years. This part of his game looks really spotty.
BATTED BALL DATA
Lyles currently has a 0.98 GB/FB ratio. That mark would be the worst of his career, and it is fully one-third off his career levels of 1.59. Further distressing, given his overall game, is the pivot away from the ground ball. After 3-straight years with a GB/FB ratio over 2.00, the mark fell to 1.57 in 2017, 1.22 last year, and the aforementioned 0.98 this year. With the explosion of launch angle amongst batters, the change Lyles is enacting here is counter to logic. He’s generating more fly balls, and that’s the wrong direction to go. In fact, here are his year-to-year fly ball rates since 2015: 24.5, 25.0, 31.5, 37.3 and 42.0 percent. This is a bad trend given his less than put everyone away with his stuff game.
Despite all those fly balls this season, his homer per nine rate of 0.70 seems strong. It is, but it’s not sustainable. For his career he owns a 12.5 percent HR/FB ratio that makes a whole lotta sense. This year the mark is 7.1 percent. That doesn’t fit this puzzle at all. The lack of homers is also vexing given that his launch angle is a career-high at 11.6 percent (his mark is 8.2 for the last four plus seasons). The homers are coming, bank on it. Note that his SIERA (4.48) and xFIP (4.48) suggest that he is, in fact, not pitching that well right now.
Looking at more batted ball data I’m struck by the 39.6 percent hard hit date which is easily a five years high and well above his 35.2 percent career. This also doesn’t support the ratios we are currently seeing in the ERA and WHIP columns.
PITCH TYPE
Lyles used to throw his slider a good deal, a career best 23 percent of his pitches in 2016, but he’s back that number way up to 7.0 percent this season. In its place he’s greatly increased his curveball rate, up from 9.2 percent in 2016 all the way up to 30.9 percent this season. It’s been pretty much a 1-for-1 change. Last season the pitch had a .250 wOBA, and this year its at .239. He’s been effective with it, and it’s been a positive move for him. Clearly, the change has helped vault him to above ordinary.
PLAYING TIME
Being used out of the bullpen so frequently in recent year, workload is likely to be an issue this season. Here are some numbers.
2015: 49.0 innings
2016: 103.1 innings
2017: 75.1 innings
2018: 93.1 innings
How in the world could you legitimately consider those numbers and believe that he is likely to have success in the second half? Even if you disagree with the above analysis in total, you will have to admit, if you’re being honest, that as the numbers pile up the concern over the innings pitched mark will grow appreciably.
CONCLUSION
Jordan Lyles has been impressive to date. Whatever you have gotten from him as of this writing, is basically free stuff. You didn’t do anything other than grab him off waivers, and that’s been a win. If you ride him for another two months, and get just league average work, you will be a massive winner. If he gives you just 3-4 more weeks of what we are seeing right now, again, a huge win. But playing this out, there just isn’t likely to be a happy ending. The strikeouts likely recede. The homers likely explode. The innings will wear him down eventually. The thought of the day is – be happy if the gravy train ends next week. Same time, it would be wise to see if you can turn your virtually free piece into something you could use all season long before he turns back into a pumpkin.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
