Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
TWO-START PITCHERS
**percentage-owned listed for NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues
Not a very exciting week for two-start pitchers since we have a handful of teams with just five games this week and only seven games on Monday. Your no-brainer two-steps include Aaron Nola, Jose Berrios, Robbie Ray, Shane Bieber, Yusei Kikuchi, Matt Boyd and Jack Flaherty. Then you’ve got a few guys you’ll most likely start for two: Sonny Gray (v CHC, v LAD – tough), Tyler Skaggs (@ MIN, v KC – decent matchups), Brandon Woodruff (@ PHI, @ ATL – doesn’t look great on paper but he’s been terrific), Joe Musgrove (@ ARI, @ SD – may have to ignore latest two starts and run him back out there) and Brad Peacock (@ DET, @ BOS – second start is tough). Now let’s take a look at some starters who may be available in yours.
Jonathan Loaisiga (RH/NYY, 81%) – v BAL / v TBR
Many sharp high-stakes guys took the plunge of Jonny Lasagna last week, expecting an easy start against the Mariners, but he got snakebit allowing 4 ER in 4 IP. The first one against the Orioles looks good, but those Rays’ lefties are scary. Either way, we’ll want to put in a decent sized bid for his services and hope for the best despite a near 13% walk rate (which is particularly scary for that second start). Don’t think I’ll lose sleep if I miss out on him though.
Danny Duffy (LH/KCR, 56%) – v TEX / @ LAA
The 30-year-old southpaw made his return to the rotation in late-April and has since made three starts. The first one was the roughest (vs LAA: 5 IP – 5 H – 3 ER – 3 BB – 1 K), but he then followed up with a gem against the Rays (6 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K) and then a mediocre one against the Astros (6.2 IP – 6 H – 2 ER – 3 BB – 5 K). Strangely, he saw his velocity dip in each of those three starts. Let’s still not forget this is a guy who hung a 4.88 ERA last season and has a subpar career strikeout rate (20.6%). But he’s worth considering for 15-teamers with this two-step. The first one is actually the better matchup with many of the Rangers’ best hitters lefties (Gallo, Mazara, Choo, Odor). In the second one, he’ll have to contend with Trout, Fletcher and Simmons and worry less about Calhoun, Goodwin and Bour. Either way, worth an honest bid, but nothing is safe in 15-team streaming land so don’t be shocked if he gets hammered in one of those starts.
Wilmer Font (RH/NYM, 0%) – @ WAS / @ MIA
Nothing more than a rental because he’s got two this week, and one of them is against the Marlins. Steven Matz should return quickly after his 10-day IL stint is over, and there’s always the chance Font stays in the rotation over Jason Vargas if he pitches well these next two starts. Just note we’ve seen two extreme versions of Font over the last calendar year. So far this season, he’s allowed runs in six of 10 relief appearances then lasted only four innings in that first start with his new squad against the Padres where he allowed two runs on a homer and only struck out one. Last season, he played on three teams and we saw two very different Fonts. With the Dodgers and A’s, he was bombarded constantly (25 ER in 10 relief appearances / 17 innings) and became a new man in Tampa (just 5 ER allowed in 27 innings and the final three outings prior to injury were very good starts). Font has the skills and potential, and he’s in the right park to perhaps be someone we look back on in August and were happy we made the bid this week. But he’s extremely volatile, and we simply don’t know what to expect. Or if he’ll even go beyond four innings in either of these starts. I’d bid him as a conditional single-digit or teens bid to find out.
Mike Fiers (RH/OAK, 39%) – @ SEA / @ DET
Well, looky here. Fiers is the first pitcher to fire a no-hitter this season, and you’ll see bids a’soarin’ because of it. But is it a trap? After all, only Dylan Bundy has allowed more homers than Fiers in the majors over the last couple seasons, and even with that latest outing, his ERA is 5.48. The main issue with Fiers is his lack of whiffs (17.4%) and the fact he’s a much better pitcher at home in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. Last season, between the Astros and A’s, he posted a 2.81 ERA in 102.1 innings at home and a 4.65 on the road (69.2 IP). Similar case this season: 3.62 ERA at home, 8.20 on the road. That stated, the matchups on paper do look nice. The Tigers and Blue Jays are the two worst-hitting offenses in the AL against right-handed pitchers (only Reds/Marlins are worse overall). So perhaps he’s worth a whirl for us. Just don’t be that guy who spends $100 expecting a shutdown Fiers. This is more of a case of a rental for the two starts this week.
Trent Thornton (RH/TOR, 76%) – @ SF / @ CHW
The results for the rookie have been a mixed bag. On the season, a 5.06 ERA with a 4.25 xFIP, a decent k-rate (24.7%) and a high walk rate (10.1%). He’s allowed four or five runs in four of his eight starts and one run or less in three others. He’s allowed more runs at home (15) than on the road (six) and lines up for two nice ‘on-paper’ matchups against two paltry offenses, so he’s worth a few bucks on a bid. As I write this on Saturday, I have them listed in the way I’d bid them but might consider putting Fiers or Thornton second on this list since they may have value in 15-teamers beyond this week.
Possible Traps
Freddy Peralta (RH/MLW), Ryan Carpenter (LH/DET), David Hess (RH/BAL), Andrew Cashner (RH/BAL), Nick Kingham (RH/PIT), Jeremy Hellickson (RH/WAS)
Out of this group, Peralta is the only guy I’d consider bidding and that would be for the long-term. He returned after a two-week absence and served up six earned runs with two homers in four innings to the Rockies, only to then follow that up by coming in after the opener in Tuesday’s game and throw a five-inning gem, allowing no runs and striking out five Nationals. It just isn’t the prettiest two-step, hitting the road against the Phillies and Braves. Do you feel lucky? Well, do you?
Single Starts
Jalen Beeks (LH/TBR, 75%) – v MIA
Beeks is only available in 25% of NFBC Main Event teams, but he’s worth a nice-sized bid if available because of this matchup with the Marlins and the fact he’s been sharp this season (9.0 K/9, 2.48 ERA – but a 4.13 xFIP). Beeks was a big Red Sox’ prospect who was traded to a much better pitching environment in the Trop and will have spurts of success this season, as he’ll continue to come in after openers. I’d throw him near the top of my 15-team bids this week ahead of some of those dicey two-steps.
Felix Peña (RH/LAA, 83%) – @ MIN
We might be playing with fire here since Peña is coming off a monster outing (7 IP – 3 H – 0 ER – 0 BB – 7 K), but that was against a pathetic Tigers’ offense. These Twins are a whole different beast, especially at home. Hope you took last week’s advice and added him, but this week, it’s more about the stash and potential, as I’d consider benching him against the Twins.
Stash
Daniel Ponce de Leon (RH/STL)
At some point, Dakota Hudson is going to lose that fifth starter role in St. Louis and Poncedeleon will take over. How long are you willing to wait, and does your team even have the capability to stash for a couple weeks? Ponce is doing okay – nothing special – in Triple-A with a 2-1 record and a 3.25 ERA / 1.37 WHIP over five starts there. Free passes are and have always been an issue for him, but otherwise, he’s someone who can have success as a spot starter for us in 15-teamers. Just a couple bucks as a conditional bid if you have nine other starters for your lineup this week (or however many your league starts).
Closer Corner
It’s difficult to make assumptions when we still have Saturday and Sunday games to play and our fringe relievers are only as valuable as their last save opportunity. I’ll update this portion on Sunday if there’s anything relevant.
CUBS – Some opportunity has opened up with Pedro Strop hitting the IL with hamstring issues for the third time this calendar year. The committee now is Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler and Brad Brach with Cishek likely the guy leading it and the one who will see the highest bid amounts. The Cubs haven’t had a save opp since Strop went down and all three of these guys are averaging more than a strikeout per inning with Kintzler and Brach holding ERAs under 2.50 (Cishek is at 3.18). Don’t go nuts here on a bid, but if you absolutely must throw something at someone, go with Cishek. Either way, this is a situation that may be all too maddening.
RANGERS – Welp, so much for those Shawn Kelley bids as he’s now on the IL. Chris Martin received the latest save opportunity, but I’m still holding out hope that Jose LeClerc gets that ninth-inning gig back. LeClerc would have had a quicker way back in if not for his last appearance (3 BB, 1 ER, 2 K vs HOU) though he did pitch three clean innings in two appearances prior to that after being removed from the role. Perhaps I’m just stubborn, but I feel LeClerc is their guy and he deserves a bigger bid than Martin. Fingers crossed.
REDS – It’s been a rough start to the season for Raisel Iglesias, who has blown two saves and gave up crucial runs in three consecutive appearances between April 30 and May 3. Since then, two clean one-inning appearances against the A’s including a save. He’s got a career-high HR/9 rate (1.93), but I’m sure that will regress. The strikeouts are insane at least (35.8%) and the 3.29 xFIP perhaps points to some bad luck on that 4.34 ERA. There are a couple of guys capable of the handling ninth-inning duties should Iglesias truly falter (Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson and Michael Lorenzen has two saves), but it still seems like Iglesias is their main guy. Things should get better for him going forward (famous last words).
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games:
National League: PHILLIES, BREWERS, PIRATES
American League: ORIOLES, TIGERS, TWINS
Teams with 5 games:
National League: MARLINS, ROCKIES, DODGERS, GIANTS
American League: RED SOX, RAYS
THE GOOD
- Indians play six at home and it’s a good one. Two against the White Sox (possibly Reynaldo Lopez and Manny Banuelos) and then four against weak Orioles pitching. Our main dudes (Lindor, Ramirez, Santana) are no-brainer every-week plays, but this week we’re particularly making sure we start our secondary guys like Leonys Martin and Jake Bauers. In 15-teamers, we’re using Carlos Gonzalez and maybe even Jordan Luplow.
- Love all Phillies this week with seven at home (4 v MLW, 3 v COL). Perhaps it’s the week Bryce Harper finally gets acclimated to his home park, as they’ll face five righties. Make sure you get Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera in your lineups too.
- The Astros might get four lefties out of six this week. That’d be a bump to guys like Jake Marisnick in 15-teamers (.430 wOBA / 179 wRC+) as well as Yuli Gurriel and Robinson Chirinos.
THE BAD
- Not the best week for Red Sox’ bats who get a series against the Astros, including Gerrit Cole. That doesn’t affect us using Betts/Martinez/Chavis/Benintendi, but we might want to bench guys like Rafael Devers or Mitch Moreland in 12-teamers. You should be having Jackie Bradley (.142, 0 HR) on your bench anyways.
- A big drop-off for the Giants who are already in the midst of a Coors hangover. They play just five, taking on the Blue Jays for two at home and then in Chase Field (Arizona) for three. Pretty much all of your Giants’ bats can be benched. Same goes for any fringe Marlins you may have.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Stephen Vogt (LH/SFG), Roberto Perez (RH/CLE)
Nice to see the 35-year-old Vogt back in the league for one last hurrah. He’ll get just that with Posey on IL, as he will split time behind the plate with recent call-up Aramis Garcia. Vogt may not have much left in the tank and with only five games this week he may not get more than two or three starts. But you can rent his services for a couple of weeks, especially if you need a replacement for Posey or Zunino. Speaking of Garcia, he’s pretty horrendous at the plate, posting a .205/.309/.434 slash with a 37% strikeout percentage in Triple-A. Perez listed mostly because of the Indians’ schedule and he’s their primary backstop.
Corner Infielders – Wilmer Flores 2B/3B (RH/ARI), Kelvin Gutierrez (RH/KCR), Justin Bour (LH/LAA)
After starting off the season ice cold, Flores has hit .378 with nine RBI over the last two weeks. Gutierrez is the Royals’ primary third baseman and has been serviceable, though, he’ll be officially over 90% owned in NFBC 15’s after this weekend. Bour has been so awful that he was moved down to the eighth spot in the lineup. That may bode well for him with less pressure. He smashed a homer a few days ago hitting eighth, and the Angels get five-of-six RHP this week.
Middle Infielders – Didi Gregorius (LH/NYY), Jed Lowrie (SW/NYM), Tommy La Stella (LH/LAA)
Didi is a stash only if you have the space on your bench. Don’t force it though. He’s been cleared to DH at extended Spring Training games starting May 20 and might find his way back to the big club close to the end of the month or early June. Lowrie has yet to make his debut in the majors this season but was lifted off the IL finally. He stayed in Triple-A Syracuse for another weekend where he’s been struggling, but he’ll be a welcomed addition as the full-time 3B for the Mets. He’s up there in age but still has something left in the tank. La Stella shockingly leads the Angels in homers and should be bid upon if still available so that you too can enjoy the magic before he inevitably turns into a pumpkin. Well, unless he’s juicin’, in which case you may enjoy it longer than expecting (kidding, not kidding).
Outfielders – Hunter Pence (RH/TEX), Mac Williamson (RH/SFG), Jake Marisnick (RH/HOU), Charlie Tilson (LH/CHW)
Not only is Pence hitting over .350 in these past two weeks but he also leads all MLB hitters with 17 RBI over that span. The 36-year-old has always hit righties and lefties equally well, but so far this season, he has been more disciplined against righties (17% BB, 13% K vs RHP, 3.6% BB, 21.4% K vs LHP). He’s worth an add, but for some reason, I don’t think you’ll see another two-week stretch from him like we’ve seen. Worth at least $40 though in a 15-teamer. Big Mac Dubs is a career minor-leaguer who has always hit for power. But he’s 28 and plays half his games at AT&T Park. There will be some who blow upwards of 20% of their budgets for him, but I won’t be one of those people. I’d still give him a shot over Pence though just for the power potential. Marisnick is basically just a one-week fill-in if you need a live body in deeper formats as the Astros may see four southpaws this week. Tilson was recently called up for the White Sox and he’s the addition you need if you lost Dee Gordon and need some speed.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues
Luckily for our FAAB wallets, it’s not a big week to spend. You’ll see the usual bids on guys coming off hot weeks, as so many folks simply look backward and fail to look ahead at upcoming schedules. Perhaps there’s a stud who was dropped who deserves your bidding (Devers was dropped in one of my 12-ers and that was a bad mistake on that owner’s part). Not a bad week to keep the bidding light and just fill necessary holes for your lineups this week.
Corner Infielders – Jake Bauers 1B/OF (LH/CLE), Howie Kendrick 2B/3B (RH/WAS)
Many teams have dropped Bauers, and you should probably pick him up. Incredibly streaky, Bauers has been hitting well lately (.316 with a .357 OBP last two weeks) and is second on this team in wRC+ and wOBA behind Carlos Santana (not including Luplow who has only had 40 PA). Kendrick continues to play and smash so if you didn’t add him last week, you can correct that mistake this week.
Middle Infielders – Nick Ahmed (RH/ARI), Garrett Hampson 2B/SS (RH/COL), David Fletcher 2B/3B (RH/LAA), Jason Kipnis (LH/CLE)
Nothing special about Ahmed, but he’s a fill-in if you need one at MI this week. They’ll face some hittable pitchers at home against the Pirates and Giants. Not the best week to start Hampson with five on the road, but you could stash him if available, as I believe his breakout is around the corner. I’m sure you’re sighing as we speak, but it’s true. Hampson is a good hitter, and in my opinion, better than Ryan McMahon. Fletcher continues to hit (.308) and leads off against lefties. An interesting stat I saw on Fletcher is that in 109 MLB games, he’s only not swung and missed in 68 of them. He continues to be an underrated asset with multi-positional eligibility who will be a staple in this lineup. I trust him more than La Stella going forward. Kipnis stinks but perhaps some at-bats with White Sox and Orioles pitching wakes his bat up.
Outfielders – Kole Calhoun (LH/LAA), Brian Goodwin (LH/LAA), Leonys Martin (LH/CLE), Christin Stewart (LH/DET), Carlos Gonzalez (LH/CLE)
Calhoun and Goodwin have been swinging hot bats for quite some time now, and we utilize them anytime we see a handful of righties on the schedule, which is the case this week. Martin and CarGo listed for the nice week ahead. Stewart was recently activated and is back in the Tigers’ lineup, so he should be bid upon where available.
