If you were to ask anyone who plays in a league with me what my most prominent weakness would be, the answer would be a resounding, “WAIVERS!” I love drafting, but let’s be honest here; when you’re in the thick of the NFL season, managing high volumes of season-long leagues, dynasty leagues, DFS lineups, and maybe some non-football real-life happenings (what even is that?), etc… putting in waiver claims may slip down the list of priorities… or truth be told, if you’re like me, just slip your mind. With the emergence of the Best Ball format over the past few seasons, all of my problems were solved. I can draft hundreds of leagues and simply rely on my draft prowess to carry me through the season. No adds, no drops, no setting lineups. I imagine that’s what heaven is like. Best Ball has taken all of the enjoyable parts of a fantasy league and turned it into a low maintenance fan’s dream. There are advantages to be had throughout the offseason, and drafting at different times will result in different periodic ADPs. Here, I took a look at the post-draft fall out for a few players, and the value their current ADP brings, or lacks.
N’Keal Harry – WR – New England Patriots
- .5 PPR ADP – 105
- 1 PPR ADP – 129
When the New England Patriots used the 32nd overall pick to grab Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, New England fans, like myself, were surprised and intrigued. A first-round wide receiver in the Belichick era? It was unprecedented and completely unheard of. In fact, it hadn’t happened within the organization since 1996. Such a bold move from the hoodie himself highlights the urgency the team is feeling to fill in the 155 vacated targets left with the departure of Cordarrelle Patterson, Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan. The 6’2, 228-pound wideout should have no problem catching passes from, inarguably the most credentialed and arguably the best quarterback to ever play the game, Tom Brady. His size and contested catch ability are primed to seamlessly sync with Brady’s patience and affinity for throwing into tight windows. Not only has Harry’s route running been praised, but the portfolio of routes he was able to run at Arizona has made many believe he should have an easier than normal adjustment period to the complexity of the NFL wide receiver position. Julian Edelman is still the top wide receiver and pass catchers in this offense, and is fantastic in the slot, so his volume will not be seeing any dings for as long as his ability stays a step ahead of Father Time. Harry on the outside (though he’s versatile enough for inside snaps as well) should see a greater ADOT and give way for more than adequate production. His ADP isn’t a glaring value in half PPR, but the upside is there and his question is more of a when it happens than if it happens. His ADP in full PPR is a great value just based on the New England system. This isn’t a home run, splash play offense. It’s a methodical, high snap count and efficient one where volume can easily be found by multiple players.
Kenyan Drake – RB – Miami Dolphins
- .5 PPR ADP – 57
- 1 PPR ADP – 56
While some players are affected by what moves their respective teams choose to make in the draft, other players are affected by what moves their teams choose not to make. Additionally, coaching changes can have an even greater effect on a player’s viability. If you’re a Kenyan Drake, the best gift you received this offseason was the departure of Adam Gase and, hopefully, his enraging usage of Drake following suit. In the 2019 draft, the Miami Dolphins chose not to draft a single running back, leaving Kenyan Drake atop the running back depth chart, a rung up on sophomore and later drafted Kalen Ballage. Drake had a lackluster rookie season, though eventually finding his way to relevancy and massive efficiency after the Jay Ajayi trade and an injury to Damien Williams in 2017. Fast forward to 2018 and Drake fell victim to Adam Gase’s stubbornness and Frank Gore’s never-ending fantasy campaign, posting 535 rush yards, 477 through the air and nine total touchdowns. Miami doesn’t look to have much outside Drake in the terms of offensive focal point, and who knows what’s going to happen at the quarterback position? He’s a prolific pass-catching back, on a team many would rightfully assume to be trailing many games throughout the 2019 season. The table is set perfectly for him to be a true impact fantasy player on a bad real-life NFL team. His PPR floor and ceiling make a great value in the 5th round where you could be drafting a high-end RB2.
Todd Gurley – RB – Los Angeles Rams
- .5 PPR ADP – 8
- 1 PPR ADP – 8
In 2018, there was no more unexpected and truly impactful fall from grace than that of Todd Gurley. Widely drafted as the consensus 1.01 in all formats, Gurley paid dividends to those who took him over the likes of Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. He kicked off the year scoring in the first 10 games with 17 touchdowns in that span while compiling 1,390 yards from scrimmage and was cruising as the class of the league from a fantasy points perspective. He then dropped his first dud of the season Week 11 and followed it up with an encore Week 13. Knee injury enter stage left, CJ Anderson enter stage right. We know how the season closed for him and their backfield deployment in the postseason, so what’s next?
Entering 2019, there are nothing but big red flags with big red question marks printed on the big red flags on Gurley. Los Angeles matched the offer sheet for Malcolm Brown? Smoke. They trade up in the third round to grab Memphis running back Darrell Henderson? Fire. You are now welcome to fully deploy your extinguisher. Could Malcolm Brown just be an expensive insurance policy? Sure, he was, when it was just him providing in-house competition. But trading up in the draft for Henderson when there were other holes that needed to be filled along both the offensive line and defensive line diminished any perceived confidence the Rams had in Gurley returning to full bellcow form, at least not right away… The truth is we don’t know what’s going on, and it very well may be the team doesn’t either. Is Gurley’s knee far worse than we knew? Is he fine but will be eased back into a sizeable workload? Either way, the first round of drafts isn’t the time or place to shoulder such questions. When there’s a good chance the answer to any of the above questions is “no,” it’s not just safe, but pretty obvious to look elsewhere.
AJ Brown – WR – Tennessee Titans
- .5 PPR ADP – 176.4
- 1 PPR ADP – 188
Perhaps the most disappointing landing spot of the offseason, the Titans selected Ole Miss WR AJ Brown at 51st overall. Known for being a massively productive slot receiver in his college career, how will Brown fit in with the run first, pass when it doesn’t work, Tennessee offense? We don’t know he will, immediately, anyway. The Titans are obviously trying to surround Mariota with as much talent as possible, but too many toys for Mariota will only end in scattered productivity for the offensive weapons. Tennessee has made it clear they plan on Derrick Henry being the offensive focal point this year, and the effects this had on the passing game was very pronounced to close out the season. Over the last four weeks of the season, when Henry became the star of the show, Tennessee QBs combined for 77 pass attempts. Yes, 77 in four NFL games. Full ones. No weather delays, no cataclysmic natural disaster confining the games to only two quarters. That’s fewer than 20 attempts per game, a number only Pete Carroll could love. Ignoring any potential question of ability and skill set, the opportunity question is an immense one. The target pie for Brown to eat from is already a small one, and in-house competition remains. Delanie Walker, though returning from injury, will still get his share, as Mariota’s favorite target and most veteran target. The Titans just signed slot specialist, Adam Humphries, to a four-year $36 million deal. Corey Davis is still the most talented wide receiver on this team, and even a slight workload share would still have him projected to be 1A. With so little focus on airing it out, and so many ways to go when they want to, don’t expect AJ Brown to bring any sort of value in any format this year. Though being drafted late in Best Ball rounds (16th round), there are much better dart throws in this area with significantly more clear paths to relevancy (Mohamed Sanu, DeVante Parker).
Ronald Jones – RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- .5 PPR ADP – 98
- 1 PPR ADP – 127
The 2018 second rounder didn’t play much in 2018 and really squandered what few opportunities he did receive (30 total touches in 7 games – Yikes). Jones finished the year with 44 rush yards, 33 receiving yards, just one lone touchdown on the ground and none through the air. For the sake of the Bucs, and the sake of Ronald Jones’ confidence, let’s hope 2018 is already out of the rearview mirror. Newly hired Bucs coach, Bruce Arians, has expressed nothing but optimism for the sophomore back, advocating excitement that he could be a David Johnson-esque player in 2019. The team did not use any of their eight draft picks to get a running back, seeming to express their confidence in the backs already in place on their roster. While Peyton Barber is still number one on the depth chart, and the back who saw the most volume in 2018, that volume didn’t translate to efficiency in the slightest. Barber averaged just 3.7 YPC on the year (the lowest of his career) and walked away with just six total touchdowns. He also has a limited pass-catching skill set, which is unlikely to find favor with Arians. While it’s no sure thing, the competition for Jones to face this season is, by no means, insurmountable – and with an entire offseason to improve on both conditioning and skill set, he’s a great target in the later rounds that brings real ceiling. His value in full PPR is truly glaring, as this is an area Barber struggles in (just 92 yards on 20 catches in ’18), likely the reason his ADP is three rounds later. Whether Jones is able to seize a real and featured role or not, he’s got the highest ceiling of the positional group in Tampa and is a candidate to be a league winner. Even if he does not capitalize on this opportunity, someone in the backfield will be a real Best Ball value at current cost, and it’s a very reasonable strategy to take both backs at current ADP.
Jaylen Samuels – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers
- .5 PPR – 106
- 1 PPR – 100
This one is an odd one to me. Samuels is currently going in the tenth round of Best Ball drafts, in all formats. At current information, he’s nothing more than the back up to a widely productive, and widely liked, hometown kid, James Conner. There’s a hard and fast rule, if you’re going to overdraft a back that’s a handcuff, make sure that back is the actual handcuff. Now that Benny Snell received a fourth-round draft capital investment from the Steelers, it’s quite reasonable and, more so likely, to think Samuels has played himself into a third-string role. After seeing what the backfield looked like with Conner missing time last year, the team sees Samuels as a back who can’t effectively handle a heavy workload, and Snell showed quite the opposite in the SEC. Samuels is perhaps the easiest fade at current cost among all players, in a round where it’s more likely you hit a home run with Ronald Jones or DK Metcalf.
