Vlad Guerrero has struggled to this point. Is there anything to be overly worried about? Peter Alonso was great. Now the game of adjustments has started and it’s caused him to slow of late. The Mariners need infield help and that means J.P. Crawford and/or Shed Long might be of value in the fantasy game. Adalberto Mondesi if off to a historic start this season. Just how much of what we’ve seen to this point is sustainable? Finally, have you noticed just how strange the blazing hot start of Christian Yelich has been this season? If not, you will want to read on. Hopefully you will want to read on anyway, regardless of your Yelilch knowledge. Least that’s the author’s hope anyway.
GUERRERO STRUGGLING, OR IS HE?
It’s been 41 plate appearances, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. has done nothing at all. The can’t miss kid, has completely missed.
It’s been 41 plate appearances, and in the grand scheme that means nothing.
It’s been 41 plate appearances, so drawing any conclusions isn’t fair or an intelligent thing to do.
This is merely a check in on his start which has been disappointing.
Vlad has zero barrels on 26 batted balls. The guy who blasts balls everywhere doesn’t have one hit ball at 98 mph.
Vlad has an exit velocity of 89.0 mph, just ahead of the league average of 87.4 mph.
However, the crazy part is still to come.
Through 41 plate appearances, Vlad has a 73 percent ground ball rate leading to a (-6.5) launch angle.
The 20 years old has also struck out 11 times leading to a 26.8 percent K-rate.
The numbers will improve greatly, but as these 10 games have shown yet again, this is a humbling game.
It’s completely advisable to try and buy Vlad on the downlow if his current owner is in panic mode, and based upon my interaction with people, I bet a solid offer would be able to secure the rookie so give it a shot (and by solid I mean 90 percent of what his perceived value was a month ago – don’t go offering Jay Bruce for him).
Is anyone on this team hitting? Here are the player’s numbers the last two weeks, and it’s ugly.
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
|
D. Jansen |
.247 |
.269 |
.261 |
.235 |
|
J. Smoak |
.163 |
.288 |
.208 |
.238 |
|
F. Galvis |
.175 |
.195 |
.225 |
.171 |
|
B. Drury |
.268 |
.286 |
.737 |
.343 |
|
T. Hernandez |
.118 |
.143 |
.147 |
.130 |
|
R. Tellez |
.234 |
.250 |
.340 |
.253 |
ALSONSO SLOWING IN NEW YORK
Peter Alonso has had a dynamic start to the season for the Mets powering the baseball all over the field at near historic levels putting him on pace for one of the best power seasons by a rookie in MLB history (.275-48-136-101). At the same time, that effort is extremely frontloaded. Here are his numbers his last 63 plate appearances over 15 games with those fifteen games representing 41 percent of the games he has played to date: .207/.254/.397 with a .275 wOBA, 75 wRC+ and a massive 33.3 K-rate. So for the last 15 games he’s been a horrible offensive player. Not bad, but horrible, with only the 10 RBI to keep him afloat. The K-rate is up to 29.5 percent overall, and it should be noted it’s going to be difficult for him to hit .275 with that level of punchouts.I still think he’s not going to appreciably separate himself from many first sackers the rest of the way, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to consider trying to parlay him into a good piece or two before folks start to realize that there are some cracks in the foundation.
MARINERS TO PROMOTE CRAWFORD
It appears that Shed Long and J.P. Crawford are heading to Boston to join the Mariners Friday. Long has seven extra base hits this month after seven in April, and the second baseman owns a .854 OPS this season at Triple-A. Long has quick hands, a line drive stroke, and the ability to steal 10 bases (though he doesn’t have any thefts this year). It appears that the right wrist issue of Dee Gordon will send him to the IL. We will have to wait and see how long before any level of excitement can be given to Long/Crawford outside of AL-only setups.
Crawford’s call up could mean that Tim Beckham’s time as a starter has come to an end, though let’s not forget that Dylan Moore is also hurt so this could be a move to the minors for that reason, and not to dump TB to the bench (keep that in mind). Beckham started crazy hot, but has seen his production, predictably, dip the last couple of weeks. Still, seem like a bit of odd timing to bench a guy with a .500 SLG and a .824 OPS who is on pace to go 28-80-80 isn’t it? Perhaps it’s the lack of contact that is driving the move as Beckham has 14 punchouts his last 10 games and just one RBI in that time.
Crawford, a one-time elite prospect (he was a top-10 prospect in all of baseball in 2016), has lost a good of his luster. Crawford can pick it defensively, but his offensive game has lagged behind his glove. Here’s a good article, with video, breaking down some swing changes that he’s made. He’s hit a solid .319 with solid approach indeed that has led to a .420 OBP thanks in no small part to his 0.76 BB/K ratio. The problem for Crawford in the fantasy game is that (A) he doesn’t have much power, (B) he doesn’t steal bases and (C) his hit tool isn’t overly impressive and (D) he’s likely to hit at the bottom of the order. This offensive game says to me Daniel Robertson or Orlando Arcia at the moment, and that’s just not something to get excited about.
JUST HOW GOOD HAS ADALBERTO MONDESI BEEN?
Adalberto Mondesi has been everything he was advertised to be, and more actually, as his early season production has put him on the following absurd pace: .275-20-140-100-40. He’s also on pace for 40 doubles and 25 triples. No player who has ever lived has done that (the last season of 25 triples was in 1925 – Kiki Cuyler). So, we know that he is going to slow, but where, and how?
Mondesi has a 0.20 BB/K ratio, slightly above his career 0.15 mark. That’s a horrible number, 0.20, that is half the league average. Here are the men who had a mark of 0.20 or lower who hit above .275 last season: Javier Baez. That’s it. Amongst players under 0.25, who many hit .275? One. It’s just damn hard to hit .275 with this approach.
Mondesi is third in baseball in swinging strike rate with a massive 18.1 percent mark. That’s terrible.
Mondesi is the second most likely player in baseball to swing at a pitch taking hacks at 57.6 percent of them (the only player worse is Jonathan Schoop at 58.9 percent).
Mondesi is the 17th worst hitter in baseball at actually making contact when he swings out of 175 qualifiers.
Mondesi’s also 6th worst at swinging at pitches outside the strike zone.
Let me be crystal clear – he swings at everything without one iota of discernment. The batting average could be in peril because of his approach because he flat out swings at everything and because he’s hitting .216 on the road this year and .224 in his career.
How many folks posted an OBP of .325 with a 0.25 or lower last season? Two: Baez and Derek Dietrich. I bring that up because, despite his speed, Mondesi is gonna be hard pressed to score 100 runs if he doesn’t get on base. Let’s be real. His current OBP is .309, and it was .306 last year, so it’s pretty much who he is at this point. The number of men who scored 100 times with an OBP of .309 or lower last season was… one (Ozzie Albies). The number of men who scored 90 runs with an OBP that low was… one. The number of men who scored 85 runs with an OBP that low was… one. Brian Dozier (81) and Ian Desmond (82) were the two others to get to 80 runs.
If you don’t get on base, it’s hard to run. The three men in baseball who posted 40-steals were Whit Merrifield (45 and .367 OBP), Trea Turner (43 and .344) and Mallex Smith (40 and .367).
So, does it seem like a good bet that he will steal 40 or score 100 runs or to hit .275 to you?
YELICH STRUGGLING ON THE ROAD?
Christian Yelich has only been slowed by a back issue, as he’s been an outright superstar this season (.356-16-31-37-7 with a 1.258 OPS). He’s carried on his MVP play from last season and, shockingly, has improved upon it. He’s been flipping amazing. But, and there is a but, it’s been a totally one-sided effort.
Here are his 2019 numbers to date, and prepared to be shocked if you haven’t come across this info before.
HOME: .406-15-32-24-1 with a 1.665 OPS and 300 wRC+
AWAY: .296-1-5-7-6 with a .766 OPS and 103 wRC+
He’s been Ted Williams and Babe Ruth at home.
On the road he’s been Jonathan Villar.
Last season he was amazing everywhere including the road (.296-14-55-59-12 with a .944 OPS), so it seems like this cold spell away from Milwaukee is just one of those things. But, and there’s that but again, he hit 18-straight homers at home before going deep in New York on April 27th. That’s shocking.
Again, can’t see this absurdity lasting too much longer, but it’s still a fascinating trend to ponder at the moment.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
