Let’s look at the arms. Canning has been sharp for the Angels. Darvish – what can be said about his wretched pitching to this point? Flaherty is on the cusp of becoming the pitcher he was drafted to be. Foltynewicz has been troubling when on the hill this year. Gibson, no one talks about, but there’s some interesting things going on there. Hendricks has been excellent in 3-of-4 starts. Miller – no strikeouts and walks. Morton has basically performed as expected in Tampa. Daniel Norris has a van, and some moderate success. Ray gets ahead and dominates. He falls behind and it’s danger zone time. Sale is back. Skaggs – may never get there. Woodruff has missed tons of bats with his high-end stuff for the Brewers.
Griffin Canning has thrown only 9.2 innings in his two starts, but he’s done nothing to quell the belief that he’s ready to get big-league hitters out right now. He’s only walked two batters leading to a 1.03 WHIP, and he’s struck out 13 batters. His next outing is against the Orioles, so the odds are good that he will be able to continue his sharp work. Just to say it, he really shouldn’t be on waivers.
Chicken nuggets and ice cream?
Yu Darvish allowed one hit and one run with seven strikeouts Thursday. If that was all the info you had, you certainly would think that he had a great outing. Not so much. Darvish needed a whopping 97 pitches to get through four innings as he walked six batters. That’s 33 walks in 36.2 innings for the once highly regarded righty leading to a vomit/diarrhea inducing 8.10 BB/9 rate. He’s healthy. The velocity is there. He simply cannot control where the ball is going. He’s bumped his slider rate about five percent, taking it away from his heater, and might explain one tiny little piece of this. End of analysis. Now my personal thoughts. The dude is a disaster. He was last year too, and continues to be this season. He’s a bad version of Robbie Ray (who you can read about below). Darvish has lost his ability to locate his pitches effectively, even as his “stuff” remains plenty strong enough to dominate opponents. (1) As I’ve said, hold if you can but do not start him. (2) If you’re in a 10-team league, move on. (3) In a 12-teamer it matters who you pivot to, and what your roster needs are. (4) I would float a lowball offer for him, cause if his owner hasn’t dropped him yet, they almost certainly will be after that last outing. I mean, low ball offer – the last guy on your pitching staff kinda thing. Hopefully, a miracle will occur, he’ll start trusting his stuff, start pounding the strike zone, and rekindle the success of the past. If not, no harm, no foul at what is likely a basement level price.
Jack Flaherty has been a disappointment to this point. Still, his 10.15 K/9 rate is strong, as is his 12.7 swinging strike rate. Jack has upped his first pitch strike rate eight percent from last season to an impressive 65 percent, and that has led to a drop in his walk rate from 3.52 to 2.81 per nine this season. The main issue has been the homer. He’s actually allowing three percent fewer fly balls this season while watching his 15 percent HR/FB ratio go up to 22 percent this season. He’s a fine buy option if his current owner is ticked off.
Mike Foltynewicz just ain’t right. He had a 1.47 WHIP with a 7.13 K/9 and 1.56 in the K/BB category in Triple-A. His work with the Braves hasn’t been any better – 5.94 ERA, 5.40 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB. I’ve said all along that he wasn’t worth his cost. At this point, he may not even be worth a roster spot in many mixed leagues as he’s just not doing what he needs to in order to be successful.
Kyle Gibson has allowed only six earned runs the last four, though he has allowed nine runs overall in that time. He’s allowed a homer in 3-straight as well, but he’s also walked just three batters in four outings and in those four he’s punched out 28 men in just 24 innings. His swinging strike rate is way up at 13.2 percent, an impressive number, and that 67.5 percent first pitch strike rate also impresses. Add in the 50 perfect ground ball rate, and there’s something to see here. Shouldn’t be on waivers at the moment.
Kyle Hendricks has thrown at least seven innings while allowing zero runs in 3-of-4 outings. He laid an egg in there with the seven runs allowed, but he’s been pretty marvelous of late. The run of excellence has his ERA down to… 3.19. He is what he is. When he’s on, he’s really good. When he’s off, he’s gonna get hit hard. If you’re in, you’re in, and it needs to be for the long haul as his performance will certainly vacillate over the course of the season as he just doesn’t have the stuff/velocity to cover up for those days when his control is led than ideal.
Shelby Miller has thrown 27.2 innings over seven starts for the Rangers. He’s been awful. Not only does he have just 19 strikeouts but he has walked 21 batters. Yes, more walks than strikeouts.
Charlie Morton has made eight starts for the Rays, and per usual the last few seasons, the concerns are only about his ability to stay healthy, not his performance while on the field. Morton is rocking a career best 11.37 K/9 rate, and the 1.22 WHIP is just above the 1.18 mark he’s posted the last two years. OK, there is one issue – the walk. He’s usually allowed a few too many free passes, but his current rate of 4.26 free passes per nine would be his worst mark since 2008. Gonna have to cut that down or those ratios will certainly rise.
Daniel Norris has a fantastic backstory, doing his own thing at every turn. A second-round selection in 2011, to this point in time he’s been more about his unique story than he has been about his performance on the field. He’s struggled to stay healthy. He’s struggled to find a role. He’s struggled to get outs. Things appear to finally be changing – at least a little bit. He’s made four starts for the Tigers, each lasting exactly five innings. He’s gone 1-1 in that time with a 1.67 WHIP and 2.20 K/BB ratio. He’s only worth rostering in AL-only leagues, but at least it’s something.
Brad Peacock was bombed for seven runs against the Twins, and people started to doubt him. He followed up that effort with his best performance of the season as he flat out dominated the Royals over seven shutout innings (three hits, one walk, 12 strikeouts). Through 37.2 innings this season he has 38 strikeouts with a 3.91 SIERA. He’s also operating with a 2.39 BB/9 rate, the best of his career, which has enabled him to post a 1.09 WHIP. Hopefully you held on to him through his minor demotion to the bullpen because of the lack of a need for a 5th starter cause of the Astros’ schedule, or you were smart enough to add him when an impatient owner failed to show – patience.
Robbie Ray – same old story. When he gets ahead in the count, sheer dominance (after 0-1 .424 OPS with a 10.00 K/BB ratio). When he falls behind in the count, he’s just barely usable (after 1-0 the OPS is .829 with a 1.25 K/BB ratio). It’s just that simple. He’s walking 4.74 batters per nine, after last years 5.09 mark, and that means he’s never going to be better than league average in WHIP (1.33 since the starts of last season) and the ERA is always in peril.
Chris Sale is back. Sure, seems that way at least. He punched out 14, while walking none, in a dominant effort against the Orioles in his last start. In the effort he elicited 16 swings and misses on his fastball, one short of his career best, this after just 21 swings and misses on the heater his first seven outings. Over his last four starts he owns a 1.73 ERA with 14.54 strikeouts per nine. Breath a huge sigh of relief folks.
Jeff Mans believes that Tyler Skaggs, thanks to his almost there curveball, is on the precipice of being a very usable fantasy piece. Jeff watched his last start closely, accurately commenting on how a couple of questionable ball calls led to a terrible effort (8 R, 7 ER, over 4.2 IP). Jeff may very well be accurate, about the curveball and what it could do for Skaggs, but I have to be honest and share with you that the numbers just don’t support that call. The ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB/FB all say league average. He’s nearly 28 years old, and it might just be time to admit that he’s a serviceable starter, but not much more.
Snakes, be careful.
Brandon Woodruff review after eight starts for the Brewers. He has a 3.39 SIERA, 3.32 xFIP and 4.25 ERA. He’s been dominant with an 11.48 K/9 rate, and the walk rate is down at 2.55 per nine leading to a mighty impressive 4.50 K/BB ratio. That’s good stuff. Flip side, the GB/FB ratio is 1.11, league average stuff. His exit velocity is a mph above the league average, and that hard-hit ball rate of his is about four percent above, which somewhat explains the .385 BABIP. Still, with his swing and miss stuff, and his ability to keep the walks in check, not to mention the likelihood that the batted ball numbers will turn downwards a bit, his overall profile is trending in the right direction. Buy/hold.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
