Last week, the essentials were provided. Both Jeff Mans (Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings) and I (Rookie Dynasty Rankings) posted Dynasty Rankings, and also, a Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft. If your rookie draft was last week, that should’ve been able to provide a great baseline. HOWEVER, I know there’s a lot of folks out there who want some context on these prospects, and so, that will be provided. Each fantasy-relevant position will be evaluated, and important information pertaining to prospects as both college players and their team fit will be broken down.
Of the 28 WRs drafted, there’s 20 in this ranking that I feel deserve a write-up. Even that is generous. On an average draft class, there’s 10-to-11 WRs that will make a reasonable impact. If you want to learn more about the eight unlisted prospects (and more), I wrote about all of them in this piece previewing WRs that received a combine invite.
- N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots
Harry has been a player college football fans have been excited about for years. Ever since his freshman season, it was obvious he was going to be a top NFL draft selection one day. Arizona State was generally undermanned in Harry’s time there, and he had to make incredible plays to keep drives going on a regular basis. Harry ended his three-year career, which was filled with incredibly erratic QB play, with 3,033 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns. Harry not only accumulated 213 receptions but also added 23 rushing attempts, 14 punt returns and four passing attempts. Harry went to the combine and destroyed any notions that he was slow or not athletic, posting a 90th percentile speed score and a 78th percentile burst score. Harry had to sweat it out on draft day but ultimately landed in the first round after the New England Patriots selected him with the 32nd pick. Harry is listed at 6 foot 2 and 228 pounds, making him one of the bigger WRs in the NFL, and his fantastic ball skills and after the catch ability simply aren’t a combination a lot of athletes have. Harry has almost no competition for targets (particularly 15+ yards down the field), and the sky is truly the limit from year one on. While QB Tom Brady is aging and will likely only be around for the first few seasons of Harry’s career, but I’m a big believer Harry is going to be an elite player. Elite players make their situations, and considering the Patriots infrastructure, there should be faith they’ll be able to figure something out post-Brady.
Harry can be a difficult proposition in rookie drafts for a lot of folks. The general consensus he’s a weak 1.01 has made that pick VERY available in a lot of 1QB leagues. A lot are choosing to go with Raiders RB Josh Jacobs over Harry. The year one upside for Jacobs could be reasonable logic, but always choosing year one over the long term isn’t an advisable dynasty strategy. In SuperFlex (SF), Harry is the consensus 1.02 behind Cardinals QB Kyler Murray but can slide to 1.03 or 1.04 if, as mentioned, someone is interested Jacobs or has a big need at QB (Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins). I’ve already done one SF rookie draft, and I took Harry 1.01. That may seem fancy, but based on the process I’ve laid out for myself, I have to go all in. Harry has legitimately every quality I look for from a metric/production standpoint, and he also checks a ton of boxes on film. I’m trying to get as many shares as I can, and with the general disdain for the 2019 class, it’s viable in almost every league.
- A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
Brown is dropping like a rock post-draft, and that doesn’t make much sense. Yes, Brown’s year one opportunity could be limited by being second (or even third) in line for targets behind WR Corey Davis and TE Delanie Walker. Yes, QB Marcus Mariota has been a disaster over the last couple of seasons and has struggled to stay on the field. But, great players make their situation. Brown checked in as a top-20 prospect since 2010 for me and checks boxes in a similar way to Harry (though not quite on par with him). Brown was a FORCE in the SEC in his final two seasons and even got significant playing time as a true freshman. Brown finished his career with 189 receptions and 2,984 receiving yards in an incredibly crowded depth chart (Played with Evan Engram and D.K. Metcalf for most of his career). Brown is another monster of a WR prospect, weighing in at the combine at 226 pounds at only 6 feet tall. Brown went on to run a 4.49 40-yard dash (90th percentile speed score) and test out average in all the other drills (56th percentile burst score and 47th percentile agility score). Brown is known for his prominence on underneath routes, bullying corners after the catch and being more elusive than a WR his size should be. Brown is one of just nine WRs to have two seasons with 1,200+ receiving yards in the SEC (since 2000) and just the second to do it twice. And that list is good company, including Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery and current Alabama star WR Jerry Jeudy.
Brown is one of the best values in rookie drafts since JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2017. He’s dropping currently to the mid-to-late first round of rookie drafts purely because of situation, not the caliber of prospect he is. Regardless of the revisionist history that is preached nowadays, at that time, Smith-Schuster going to the Steelers was viewed as a negative landing spot and dropped him to the late first and in some cases, the middle second round of SF rookie drafts. WR Martavis Bryant and WR Antonio Brown were viewed as limiting factors that would inhibit any fantasy value for Smith-Schuster in the first few years of his career. Yes, that happened. The good news with Brown is the cost is cheap. This is an important lesson in staying vigilant in rookie drafts. There’s no need to select Brown in the top four of rookie drafts, but if he starts to slip to 1.07 or 1.08, try REALLY hard to trade up. Opportunities like those don’t come along very often, so take advantage. I’ve seen some cases where Brown falls to the middle of the second round of a rookie draft. If Guru Subs aren’t taking advantage of that, I’ve failed!
- Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
Campbell isn’t as undeniable of a prospect as Brown or Harry — but his final season, combine performance and landing spot (it does matter in some cases!) have created an appealing upside cocktail. Campbell was not a player who garnered a lot of hype throughout his college career, specifically in his Freshman and Sophomore seasons. Ohio State is becoming known for creating weird looking production profiles for their WRs. Between dealing with a stacked depth chart and the type of offense OSU was running, Campbell found himself subbing in wherever he could, and sometimes even being deployed as a decoy/RB. Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins was installed into the starting lineup in 2018, and that totally unlocked Campbell as a weapon. Haskin’s ability to make tight window throws and notice when Campbell has an advantageous open field scenario was magical. Campbell finished 2018 with 1087 YFS and 12 touchdowns. There’s a negative connotation with being a prospect who stays until their senior season, and Campbell didn’t escape that perception. Opinions on Campbell were all over the place heading into the combine, and then a nuclear bomb went off. Campbell had arguably the best combine of any prospect in the 2019 draft, posting a 4.31 40-yard dash at 205 pounds (97th percentile speed score) and a 97th percentile burst score. Campbell is truly an elite athlete and will be one of the most athletic WRs in the NFL when he begins play in 2019. Campbell checked the draft position box, being selected in the second round of the 2019 NFL draft, and then hit a huge multiplier with his landing spot. As mentioned with the top two prospects, landing spot isn’t very important in the grand scheme, over 100s of prospects, but there are some important times to take notice. If a WR goes to QBs Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes or Andrew Luck, specifically in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, those are important times to adjust. Campbell was already high up there as a prospect on his own, but the potential of him coming to fruition with Luck boosts his fantasy ceiling from productive player to potential star. WR T.Y. Hilton is entering his age 30 season; Eric Ebron and Devin Funchess, while solid contributors, should not inhibit Campbell from finding a featured role in the future.
Campbell is currently being drafted in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts, but his stock is certainly increasing as the weeks go by. In a similar vein to Brown, if Campbell is dropping past 1.08 or 1.09, it should be an emphasis to try trading up to grab him. Luck truly just got an elite athlete with special after the catch skills. This is a match made in heaven.
- D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
There’s been a weird phenomenon going on since the combine for Metcalf. Despite posting a 100th percentile speed score, and posting a 97th percentile burst score, analysts and fans alike have been trying to tear down Metcalf for his weaknesses (agility drills). A general rule I learned years ago that always tends to hold up — as fantasy evaluators, emphasize what the player does well, not where they struggle. Sure, Metcalf has trouble laterally, but he’s truly an alien in other areas. The strengths far outweigh the negatives, and if Metcalf can stay on the field, he’s going to be an electric deep threat, at the very least, for years to come. The real issue with Metcalf is health. Can he stay healthy long enough to sustain a successful NFL career? The list of NFL players who came into the NFL with two major injuries is not long. Considering that, it shows just how special Metcalf is to overcome those issues and become a second-round selection. With that said, major injuries DO NOT just go away when the offseason comes. Those types of things linger for the rest of athletes’ (and people in general) lives, and in order to play sports at the highest level, a players body can’t be compromised. Metcalf was a specimen on the field at Ole Miss, but because of a crowded depth chart never truly found an opportunity to produce like a star. Because he was working his way back from injury in 2017 and lost the end of his 2018 season, it’s probably good process to throw out his production profile. It isn’t good, but injuries are legitimately the whole reason. Metcalf “dropped” to the second round of the 2019 NFL draft, but I’m a firm believer that as long as a prospect is drafted in the top three rounds, they’re safe from a success probability perspective. He also landed with a priming QB in Russell Wilson. While the Seahawks were extremely run-heavy in 2018, they really didn’t have much to throw to beyond WR Tyler Lockett. Adding Metcalf to the offense could create a scenario where they open things up a bunch more in the coming years.
Metcalf is not a player I’m getting a lot of exposure to this offseason, simply because of the rookie draft range he’s going. In that area, I prefer Brown and Campbell simply because they don’t have the same injury red flags. From a pure talent standpoint, Metcalf belongs not only with them, but maybe even slightly ahead. If willing to take a risk, Metcalf is a great upside play.
- Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Brown, the first player off the board, broke some barriers for the small WR archetype. Brown was the first WR in NFL history to be drafted in round one while weighing in at the combine under 170 pounds (Brown was 166). The Ravens clearly were enamored with Brown’s electric speed in and out of his routes and after the catch. And hey, no debate there. Brown is certainly one of the most explosive WRs in this class, and despite going to a perceived bad landing spot, Brown has solid odds at future success. After playing a few seasons at junior college, Brown transferred to Oklahoma and was a main contributor to two of the best college offenses in CFB history. Brown had 1,095 receiving yards in 2017 and 1,318 in 2018. Brown is an incredibly explosive weapon who, as mentioned, thrives on destroying CBs with route running and subtle agility. Brown was dealing with a foot injury (Lisfranc) towards the end the 2018 season, and that injury bled into the offseason, causing him to miss combine and pro day testing. Despite that, the Ravens still selected him in round one. So that’s that. QB Lamar Jackson looked terrible as a passer in 2018, and there’s reason to believe that may not improve, but in terms of his college profile, he was actually a really solid deep ball passer. The situation is good because of the volume and opportunity waiting for Brown, which is not matched by many other rookies in this class.
Brown is landing in the 1.11-to-2.04 range in sharp rookie drafts and fades to the mid-to-late second in softer drafts. Regardless of how you feel about Brown, his odds of future fantasy relevance are high, considering his draft round success probability. 57.3% of WRs drafted in round one (since 2000) accumulate at least one season of 800+ receiving yards, and 40% accumulate two. This simply can’t be ignored, even if disinterested in his prospect profile.
- Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
This was one of, if not THE biggest shock of the NFL draft from a skill position perspective. Hardman had a solid career as an athletic weapon at Georgia but was viewed as far from an elite or high round prospect. Hardman did perform well at the combine, posting a 4.33 40-yard dash and a 75th percentile agility score. The Chiefs made Hardman a second-round selection, boosting him into a macro-opportunity demographic nobody expected, but here we are. Once recognizing his future opportunity, Hardman becomes one of the more appealing WRs in this class, considering the team he went to in the draft. QB Patrick Mahomes is, well, good. Is that fair to say? After coming off a 50 passing touchdown 2018 season, the sky’s the limit for most players in the offense. Hardman did a little bit of everything in his final two seasons at Georgia, producing in the receiving, rushing and return game. Nothing about his production profile screams “future star!” But there’s plenty of examples of versatility (usage in a wide variety of different roles) being an underrated trait in WR prospects.
Hardman is going in a wide range of spots in rookie drafts, and while it’s tough to disagree with someone taking a risk on him in the top eight or so picks, the rose-colored glasses might be inflating his value a TINY bit too much. Hardman is a fine pick anytime after (in no order) the top two QBs Cardinals Kyler Murray and Redskins Dwayne Haskins, Harry, Campbell, (A.J.) Brown, the top two RBs (Raiders RB Josh Jacobs and Eagles RB Miles Sanders) and probably the top two TEs ( Lions TE T.J. Hockenson and Broncos TE Noah Fant) are off the board. The upside of playing out a rookie contract with Mahomes has real value and should be adjusted in Hardman’s future projection.
- Andy Isabella, Arizona Cardinals
Isabella was a late riser from a draft stock perspective. He did produce in a big way against Georgia at the end of 2018, but it took running a 4.31 at the 2019 combine to truly get his stock into the second round range where it ended up. Isabella was undeniably one of the best college producers the 2019 class had to offer. Isabella is mostly known for his final season, where he led the nation with 1,698 receiving yards. Incredibly impressive, but his 2016 and 2017 seasons are not to be ignored either. Isabella was a leader, and enhancer of, quite honestly, a terrible offense. I’m originally from Western Mass, so I can say that. He carried the offense through the lean years, and finally got to fully show off his full set of skills in 2018. Isabella is a speed and route-running based prospect, who will likely be deployed in the NFL with a versatile route tree. Especially with the Cardinals, who just hired coach Kliff Kingsbury and drafted QB Kyler Murray first overall, the wide open offense should be a place where Isabella thrives. Isabella isn’t a big WR, listed at 5 foot 9 and 188 pounds, but his stocky frame and athleticism shouldn’t inhibit him.
Isabella is currently going in that big third tier that starts in the late first round and ends at the middle of round two of rookie drafts. In a similar philosophy to Hardman, Isabella is fine to select anywhere in that range and after the top nine are gone. This is a fantastic third tier, with a lot of closely bunched assets that have similar success probability.
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Injuries are a theme for Samuel, and while they aren’t as extreme as Metcalf’s, they’re certainly something to be aware and concerned about. In his four seasons, Samuel didn’t play a full season (though he was mostly healthy in 2018). His punishing style is certainly not optimal for staying healthy. However, if looking beyond the injuries, there’s A LOT to like. Samuel is built like a brick house (listed at 5 foot 11 and 214 pounds) and resembles one when defenders bounce off him after the catch. Samuel is an all-purpose weapon who’s thrived in all areas that would be optimal for a successful NFL WR (receiving, rushing and return game). Samuel finished his career at South Carolina with 2,230 yards from scrimmage and 1,221 return yards. Samuel enters a 49ers depth chart that has a lot of talent but is wide open in terms of future roles. It’s fair to slot second-year WR Dante Pettis into a main role, and of course TE George Kittle will continue to thrive, but beyond that, if Samuel can stay healthy, he could/should be the third weapon in that offense from year one. Again, year one is one battle of a long war, but getting instant results is always nice if the long term upside is also available.
Samuel has pretty much the same rookie draft analysis as Isabella and Hardman. All three are players worth getting exposure to if in multiple leagues or stacking with multiple rookie picks. All these players are worth investing from a future upside scenario and are cheap enough to grab.
- J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles
This was an.. unexpected athletic profile! Arcega-Whiteside blew away his Stanford pro day and painted a much different picture than what his red-zone and jump ball type college role would suggest. While the agility drills weren’t spectacular, a 4.54 40-yard dash (87th percentile speed score) puts him in a totally different tier of athlete than most were projecting. The Eagles certainly agree, drafting him in the second round of the 2019 NFL draft. Arcega-Whiteside didn’t have much in terms of production until his final season but was always notably a red-zone weapon. 28 (20.1%) of his career receptions went for touchdowns, and even in 2016 and 2017, there were many notable plays in the red-zone. Ultimately, the Stanford offense was incredibly run-heavy and wasn’t concerned about featuring receiving options. The Eagles depth of talent in the skill positions is filled to the brim, specifically around the line of scrimmage and red-zone. Between Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Nelson Agholor, there’s very very little room for an Arcega-Whiteside role in year one, at least to start out the year. But, let’s emphasize this again, year one is a very small and usually not productive part of a WR career. Reading between the lines, Alshon Jeffery is heading into his age 29 season and simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy over his previous four seasons. This could be an insurance policy on Jeffery, and if it is, the future should be a bright one for Arcega-Whiteside.
For rookie draft advice, it’s the same as the previous three mentioned, sorry. They’re all in the same tier, and while I’d take Arcega-Whiteside last in this grouping, there’s no denying the upside if he gets to play year two on with Carson Wentz as his QB. Arcega-Whiteside is slipping further than some of those WRs in some drafts, though, and if he falls into the late second round range, he’s worth pursuing in a trade up scenario.
- Miles Boykin, Baltimore Ravens
Boykin is one of the more exciting upside prospects in the 2019 Class. After getting pushed aside and down the Notre Dame WR depth chart for the first three seasons of his career, things broke the right way. The Notre Dame passing offense was held hostage by QB Brandon Wimbush for multiple seasons, but in 2018, he was finally benched for Sophomore QB Ian Book. While Book didn’t have the strongest arm, he was accurate and gave his playmakers opportunities to thrive. With this change to the QB, Boykin was unleashed, and also, his very real NFL skillset. Boykin thrived in close quarters, and while he did have some concentration drops, he made up for it with spectacular plays in tight coverage. Boykin is a big WR, listed at 6 foot 4 and 220 pounds, and an absolutely dynamic athlete. Boykin produced one of the best combine profiles of any WR prospect in the last decade. It’s between him and Chris Conley. Boykin ran a 4.42 40-yard dash (98th percentile speed score), posted a 99th percentile burst score and a 90th percentile agility score. In terms of being a specimen, Boykin checks every box. The production profile is ugly, but once again, the passing offense he was apart of was embarrassing. Boykin also ended up sneaking into the top three rounds of the NFL draft, highly increasing his odds of future opportunity and success. The Ravens have absolutely zero competition for snaps for their young draft selections (Marquise Brown as well).
Boykin is going in the mid-to-late second round of rookie drafts and is very much worth pursuing in that range. While he doesn’t have quite the same appeal as some of the other WRs listed directly in front of him, it’s hard to find a WR with more upside in this class. There’s certainly downside to his profile, but in the range he’s being drafted, those concerns don’t register.
- Hakeem Butler, Arizona Cardinals
Considering the drop off in future success probability, it’s very rare I’ll rank a WR drafted in the fourth round above one drafted in the third, but Butler’s profile is hard to ignore. As a first-round prospect, as he was suggested in the pre-draft process, it was uncomfortable slotting him into the lofty projections that were being thrown around. But, based on Butler’s profile as a fourth-round pick? He’s arguably the best fourth-round prospect of the last decade (from a production and athleticism standpoint). Butler blew up the combine, posting a 97th percentile speed score and a 73rd percentile burst score. At 6 foot 5 and 227 pounds, Butler is a matchup nightmare for a lot of smaller corners. Butler was dominant in his final season at Iowa State, accumulating 1,318 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on only 60 receptions (22.0 per reception). Butler was a dominant force who had a lot of eye-opening plays, especially with his ability after the catch. There were concentration drops, and he did struggle to emerge in a lackluster depth chart prior to his final season, but as a fourth rounder, those are much less of a concern considering the long odds in which he’s already playing.
As far as rookie draft advice… well, don’t draft Butler. Based on the process I follow, there’s no amount of reasoning that could make a fourth-round pick a viable round one rookie draft selection, in any format. It’s simply not plausible with the information that’s available.
- Jalen Hurd, San Francisco 49ers
Talk about a weird selection. Hurd played well in his final season at Baylor but was a very perplexing pick in the grand scheme. Hurd’s career has been fascinating. Starting out as a RB at Tennessee, Hurd was a fun, big-bodied RB weapon. Hurd was listed at 6 foot 5 and 226 pounds at the combine and posted a 65th percentile speed score and 57th percentile burst score. As a college RB, Hurd produced 3,127 YFS and 33 touchdowns in two and a half seasons. After 2016, Hurd decided to transfer and try transitioning to the WR position. After sitting out 2017, Hurd starred as Baylor’s featured WR in 2018, posting 946 receiving yards and 1,155 yards from scrimmage. Hurd displayed an interesting skill set to build off. He still runs like a RB in the open field and is too much to handle for a lot of CBs and safeties to tackle alone. He enters an increasingly crowded 49ers WR depth chart. There’s certainly opportunity for production, but with two second rounds (Dante Pettis and Deebo Samuel) over the last two years starting out in front of him, it’s tough to envision the 49ers view him as a starter early in his career. The advantage Hurd has is his versatility in all areas of the field. There’s a lot of avenues for him to get on the field, both in the rushing and receiving game.
Hurd is a mid-to-late third round selection currently, and that’s a great value to invest. It’s tough to get too excited about him, but as a third rounder with a unique profile, it’s worth a gamble.
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
Of all the top three round selections, McLaurin could be the most intriguing when everything is considered. Throughout the process, McLaurin has largely been ignored, and him being drafted in the third round of the 2019 draft has gone under the radar as well. McLaurin posted a 95th percentile speed score, a 77th percentile burst score and truly made a draft impact for himself at the combine. It was not assumed going into that week he was that kind of athlete, but knowing he is changes the dynamic. The Redskins depth chart is weird and has a lot of talented but injured players. Between Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson and Jordan Reed, more seasons end up on IR than not, and thinking that will change in 2019 seems naive. McLaurin joins his college QB Dwayne Haskins, who almost certainly put in a good word for him after he was selected on day one. This could be a fun opportunity for McLaurin to build on the rapport he built with Haskins at Ohio State. McLaurin was limited from a production perspective as a college player, posting only one season above 500 receiving yards (701 in 2018). Considering the depth chart and high-end talent he had to compete with, it’s somewhat excusable. Between Michael Thomas, Curtis Samuel and Parris Campbell, there wasn’t much room for prolific production left.
McLaurin is cheap. Very Cheap. End of the third to start of the fourth round cheap. And while his production profile and unappealing college career are the reasons he’s being pushed down, the reality of the situation is he’s a third-round selection. Regardless of the opinion of his profile, demographically, he has solid odds of success in the NFL. The Redskins obviously view him as a promising young asset, and they’re going to give him solid opportunity over the next couple of seasons.
- Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
After the combine, I didn’t project Johnson to get drafted. As a small school prospect (Toledo) who struggled to produce in his final season, these type of prospects tend to fizzle out pretty quickly when getting evaluated by the NFL. Johnson did get a combine invite but struggled badly in testing, posting bottom percentile scores across the board. Considering all this, it’s truly shocking he was drafted in the third round, but now that he has been, especially by a team as prolific at drafting WRs as the Steelers, he’s certainly worth reviewing. Johnson is most known for his 2017 season where he took over featured duties when Toledo teammate WR Cody Thompson was lost for the season due to injury. Johnson finished that season with 1,278 receiving yards (17.8 per reception) and 785 return yards (including two return touchdowns). Johnson is a small (listed at 5 foot 10 and 183 pounds) but savvy all-purpose weapon, who thrived in all areas of the field in college. The questions come when deciding if his lack of athleticism can translate to the NFL.
Johnson is far from a fan favorite for fantasy players, and the idea he can be had in the fourth round of rookie drafts is fantastic. Again, knowing that 28.1% of WRs drafted in round three of the NFL draft produce an 800+ receiving yard season, and 15.7% produce two, makes Johnson an interesting gamble. Especially compared to all the players he’s being drafted around, he’s a great lottery ticket.
- Gary Jennings, Seattle Seahawks
Jennings was one of the more fun late-round selections in the draft. After being an integral part of West Virginia’s multi-faceted passing attack for the last two seasons, Jennings has an opportunity to make an impact as the third cog in the WR depth chart. With the announcement yesterday WR Doug Baldwin has been released, there’s really only two WRs ahead of Jennings at the moment, WR Tyler Lockett and second-round selection WR D.K. Metcalf. Knowing Metcalf’s injury history and the overall lack of threats beyond those two players, Jennings could be a 4th rounder that sticks around. For players drafted beyond round three of the NFL draft, that should be the avenue and logic used when evaluating what situation they’re entering. Jennings will have to work hard to prove he’s worth keeping around, and with the Seahawks no-nonsense attitude when it comes to training camp, he’ll have to be sharp from day one. Jennings accumulated 2,294 receiving yards in his four year West Virginia career, coming on strong with 1,096 (2017) and 917 (2018) receiving yards in his final two seasons. Jennings was used as the Swiss army knife in their system, running a majority of slot routes but also being able to get deep in some situations. Jennings went from pure slot in 2017 to a much more expanded role in 2018, showing growth as a WR and probably something that highly appealed to the Seahawks decision-makers.
We’re getting to the portion of the program where everyone is cheap or free. Jennings tends to go in the early-to-middle of the fourth round in most rookie drafts, but don’t be surprised if he falls even further. This area of the draft is where personal preference is what dictates how the draft will go, and ADP falls apart under these conditions.
- Hunter Renfrow, Oakland Raiders
The life as a Clemson WR is weird. Renfrow has consistently been on WR depth charts with future prominent NFL WRs his entire career. There has never been close to an opportunity for Renfrow to play in a role that expanded beyond purely in the slot, and his career high in receiving yards is only 602. That’s the bad side. The good side? Clemson is playing for a national championship every season, Renfrow DID get to play significant snaps in all four years of his career AND Renfrow got to catch passes from both Texans QB Deshaun Watson and future star QB Trevor Lawrence. Clemson got an incredible amount of national coverage, and Renfrow got amazing exposure for himself as a prospect in the process. Sure, his production profile is limited, but the things he does well from the slot, he does really well. Renfrow is a classic slot WR, and the Raiders are in dire need. WR Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams both have clear roles in the offense, but the underneath slot is a place Renfrow could conceivably find his way into snaps as a rookie. Renfrow weighed in at 184 pounds at the combine and posted below average athletic testing (though he did post a 76th percentile agility score). The upside is probably not too exciting here, but he could certainly become a restorable asset.
- Darius Slayton, New York Giants
The Auburn offense has been pathetic at passing the football for a decade now, and their lack of imagination in the SEC has created a situation where their WRs are at a real disadvantage from a draft evaluation perspective. Slayton, in a similar role to former Auburn WR Sammie Coates, was the big play weapon in the offense. For his career, Slayton averaged 20.3 yards per reception and produced 1605 receiving yards on only 79 receptions. That’s some incredible efficiency, and clearly, there are some positive qualities to Slayton as a deep threat. Slayton blazed at the combine, running a 4.39 40-yard dash at 190 pounds. There’s a lot of incomplete and questionable things about Slayton, but ultimately, the speedster could develop into a field stretcher at the next level. The Giants depth chart is crowded towards the line of scrimmage, but there’s real potential for Slayton to bring the lid popping element to the Giants offense if WR Corey Coleman doesn’t prove himself in preseason. Slayton is a long shot, but in deep roster leagues, he can sit on a taxi squad.
- Kelvin Harmon, Washington Redskins
Harmon was a favorite by many in the pre-draft process, and there’s certainly an NFL body type to work with in the wide receiver. Harmon is listed at 6 foot 2 and 221 pounds, which he uses well in close quarters and jump ball situations. Harmon produced from his Freshman season at North Carolina State and crested 1,000 receiving yards in both his Sophomore and Junior season. Harmon was a featured weapon in his college offense, and it’s fascinating the NFL didn’t appreciate that in the first five rounds. While Harmon isn’t an athletic marvel, he did post a 70th percentile speed score at the combine, boosting himself well above average. The lack of athleticism in other areas (15th percentile burst score and 22nd percentile agility score) were probably factors in his fall, but ultimately, the NFL made it clear he’s not a player they view as future starter caliber. The Redskins depth chart, on first glance, has the potential to be climbed, but upon further review, there’s a lot of players in which the Redskins have real investments. Between Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson and Terry McLaurin, a lot would have to go right for Harmon to find snaps.
- Riley Ridley, Chicago Bears
Ridley was one of the more talked about prospects in the pre-draft process. The variance on Ridley was very, very high. Either he was a top-end talent who belonged in the top few rounds of the NFL draft, or he was completely undraftable and not even worth a roster spot. So, of course, he went in the fourth round. Ridley is a limited athlete who didn’t find much success from a production standpoint in college. However, he didn’t produce much in Georgia’s run-heavy scheme, because of the plethora of talent around him, along with Georgia simply not playing many close games. Ridley is a somewhat redundant piece for the Bears. They already have WR Anthony Miller, a second-round selection out of Memphis in 2018, to take up all the slot and intermediate usage, so it seems unlikely (barring injury) what Ridley does best will be available to perform on the field. He’s not athletic, so he wouldn’t be best deployed on deep targets or in the run game, either. This is a strange selection, but the fourth round is still high enough to warrant at least some consideration that the Bears have plans for Ridley.
- Dillon Mitchell, Minnesota Vikings
The Oregon offense was limited on skill position players in 2018, but thankfully, they had Mitchell to take a featured role. Future NFL QB Justin Herbert struggled at times to move the Oregon offense, and that was mostly because of (somehow) a lacking supporting cast. But Mitchell was constantly a bright spot, even against some of the tougher matchups on the schedule. The best example would probably be the game against California, where Mitchell was matched up against one of the better cover corners in the country, Camryn Bynum. Bynum and Mitchell went back and forth, but by the third quarter, Mitchell burned Bynum on a few occasions and ultimately made a few game-shifting plays down the field. Mitchell really only had that one year of great production (1,184 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns) and didn’t get a ton of praise or recognition throughout the draft process. Mitchell tested out above average athletically across the board at the combine, and had it not been for a few off-field concerns, he likely would’ve been selected before the seventh round.
