How many of you remember “Fragile Fred” Taylor? In his first four seasons, he played 15, 10, 13, and 2 games and gained a reputation for being injury-prone. But he was fabulous when on the field: in his 1st three years, from 1998 to 2000, only Emmitt Smith scored more TDs among RBs than Taylor’s 32 – and it took Smith 9 more games to do it. Taylor was 4th among backs in fantasy points per game (FP/G, point per reception scoring) in those three seasons, behind only Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, and Mike Anderson. But his 2001 season sealed his reputation when he injured his groin after 2 games and missed the rest of the year. Consequently, a lot of fantasy owners took him off their draft boards, or at least heavily downgraded him.
Those owners tended to miss out on his 2002-2004 seasons when he played all but 2 games and ranked 14th in FP/G in that span. In an odd twist, he only scored 16 TDs in those 46 games – about half what he managed in fewer games in ’98-’00. But whatever his actual fantasy value, he wasn’t fragile.
Is Sammy Watkins the new Fred Taylor? Different era, different position, but same injury-prone rep. Watkins has only played 16 games once, in his rookie year. His last four seasons he’s appeared in 13, 8, 15, and 10 games. While he hasn’t been as good (relatively) as Taylor was in his own early years, Watkins has been WR33 in FP/G over the last 4 years, and that’s with a number of partial games pulling down his numbers. For example, Watkins was WR37 in 2018 with 11.5 FP/G, but if I eliminate the two games he was hurt in, he averaged 14.2 FP/G, which would have been WR24. And if I add his 2 playoff games in, he basically maintained that average, with a 14.1 mark for the 10 complete games he played, regular and postseason.
So what? Why does a low-end WR2, at best, matter enough to merit a full article? Because Tyreek Hill is likely to miss a large amount of 2019, if not all of it. And that makes Watkins the Chiefs top wideout – if he’s healthy. To recap 2018, Hill had 137 targets and was WR5 overall. And Hill is not the only (likely) departure from KC’s receiving corps: overall over RBs, WRs, and TEs who accounted for over 50% of the Chiefs’ targets are gone. So Watkins has a huge opportunity to increase his target total – or at least targets per game if you expect him to get hurt.
In those ten complete games I mentioned, Watkins averaged 6.9 targets/game. And he scored 2.04 FP per target (FP/T)1 in those games. Combined, the two stats produce 14.1 FP/G.
I’m assuming Watkins’ floor in 2019 is 7 targets/game, with a ceiling of 10 targets per game as he absorbs opportunities that went to Hill (8.6 targets/game) and Chris Conley (3.3). So Watkins has a range of 7 to 10 targets/game in terms of opportunity. As far as efficiency, he could maintain his 2.04 FP/T or even increase it. But with more defensive attention, his efficiency could very well decrease by 10 to 20%. His career mark was 1.90 before joining KC, but that includes 80% of his targets being thrown by Kyle Orton, EJ Manuel, and Tyrod Taylor, all a bit worse than Patrick Mahomes. But for the sake of analysis, let’s say his floor is 80% of his 2018 FP/T and his ceiling is 110% of it. This table turns those ranges of possibilities into FP/G:
Or if you prefer ranks among WRs (based on 2018 FP/G):
So his ceiling looks to be a Top 5 wideout, and his floor where he was last year before his injury games were discounted, or maybe a low-end WR3. The median range of outcomes is in the WR18-20 area at the center of the chart. With his current ADP somewhere between WR18 to WR26 depending on the source, I’d say he’s selling at a small discount to this range of outcomes. And this is probably due to his injury history.
Is that reasonable? I did an earlier analysis of WRs and injury expectation that estimated WRs of Watkins’ age (he’ll be only 26 this year) and recent record of games played typically score just 10.6 FP/G in the next season (WR47), much more pessimistic than the rosy chart above.
But that doesn’t answer the question I posed in the article title. How many games can we expect Watkins to play this year?
If I look at all WRs since 1988 who played each season from ages 21 to 25, like Watkins, and then played at age 26, there are only 19 WRs, ranging from Randy Moss to Maurice Stovall. They averaged 13.5 games at age 26, so that’s one estimate for what to expect from Watkins.
If I narrow it down to WRs from ages 23 to 25 who played 23 to 43 games in that span (Watkins played 33, so +/- 10 games) with 80-140 receptions (Watkins, 107, more or less +/- 30), that includes 87 WRs from Marvin Harrison and Michael Irvin down to Quincy Enunwa. They average 13.0 GP at age 26, a 2nd estimate. Of note, 43% of them played all 16 games.
If I narrow that 2nd group to +/- 5 total games from 23 to 25, 95 to 125 receptions, so a bit closer group of comparables, I’m left with 27 wideouts. They also averaged 13.0 GP and 10 of them (37%) played all 16.
Finally, the most comparable player of all, Watkins himself, has averaged 12 games played, with a high of 16 and low of 8.
Wrapping all those methods together, I’d guess (and I do mean guess) that Watkins will play at least 8 games, probably about 13, with a 40% chance of actually playing all 16, just like old “Fragile Fred.”
The next table takes the extremes of that guesstimate (8 and 16) and the rough middle +/-1 (12, 13, 14) and combines it with the extreme highs and lows of the FP/G estimates above, plus the rough middle (16 FP/G +/-2) and gives a range of total FP numbers for Watkins this year:
Putting that in terms of 2018’s total FP ranks:
Well, that’s a lot of possibilities to absorb, so I’d focus on the center of the table, with the thick black outline. Most likely, Watson will be in that area something like a low-end WR2 (ranked 17 to 24 overall) with some upside to WR13 and downside to WR34. Not that much different from my estimates above.
The outer edges of the last table give a wider range of ceiling and floor, all the way from WR1 to WR82. I think both 22.5 and 11.5 FP/G are unlikely outcomes, but I’d bet on the higher number and that means a decent chance that Watkins puts up Top 10 WR points.
There is risk with any player, and I believe some ARE injury-prone. (Fun fact: Watkins has played 3 more games over the last five seasons than Odell Beckham Jr.). But I also think that label gets used too frequently and that Watkins could pull a “Fragile Fred” this year, play every game, and be a bargain at his current ADP.
Summary:
- Watkins is likely to play around 13 games this year, with a floor of 8 and a 40% chance of playing all 16.
- An earlier analysis of WRs and injury expectation that estimated Watkins will score just 10.6 FP/G in the next season (WR47).
- Watkins’ FP/G last year (11.5, WR37) was deflated by appearing in 2 partial games; his “true” 2018 numbers were about 14.1 FP/G ((WR24).
- He will likely pick up a lot of Tyreek Hill’s (and other departed Chiefs’) targets and increase his targets/game from 7 to as much as 10.
- Watkins’ FP/T will likely stay in the range of 2.04, possibly plus 10% or minus 20%.
- Combining all those possibilities, Watkins will probably be a low-end WR2 in 2019 but has more upside to a Top 10 wideout than downside to a complete bust.
- At his current ADP, I think he’s selling a slight discount to his most likely outcome and his upside is a bargain.
1Technically, this number is a little inflated because Watkins FPs include some rushing totals which I haven’t backed out of the calculation. I’m assuming he’ll again get a few carries on end-arounds, jet-sweeps, etc. that will be proportional to his target totals.
