Ray Flowers takes a gander at the men who make their living tossing the ball at the men at the dish. Buehler has been healthy, but only so-so to this point. Chacin is trending. Is there anything to see? Cole had dealt with some homer issues of late. Gausman has started, finally, to really throw his splitter more frequently. Hamels isn’t vintage Hamels, but he’s been pretty darn close to this point. Means has been tremendous for the Orioles. What’s in store for him? What do you know, Mikolas has started to turn things around for the Cardinals. Sabathia continues to get outs. Snell looks much better after a rough return from his broken toe. Strasburg is changing his pitch mix. Stroman has struggled the last two times out, but overall, he’s been pretty solid. Velasquez needs to trust his catcher.
Walker Buehler has made seven starts for the Dodgers going 4-0 with a 4.95 ERA. He also has “just” 32 punchouts in 36.1 innings. His walk rate is normal. His homer rate is normal. The rest of his game appears to be off a bit as evidenced by his SIERA going up 0.90 from last season and his FIP being up 0.89. His 1.58 GB/FB ratio last season is way down at 1.08, his first pitch strike rate is down about seven percent, and his swinging strike rate is down a percentage point. He’s just not pitched like he did last season. Still plenty of time for him to climb the mountain to reach the expectation tree, but it’s been less than ideal. At least his arm is healthy after that preseason concern.
Jhoulys Chacin has a 3-3 record with a 5.03 ERA. He has allowed just two runs his last two outings, and in 3-of-4 its been two earned runs or less. Still, he’s really not much more than a streaming option with the lack of punchouts (6.64), a terrible walk rate (4.58) and an extremely fortunate .208 BABIP. He’s struggled with a .355 wOBA on the road, though last year the mark was .277. If he struggles on the road, with the way offense is racked up at home, he’s got no shot to be successful in the fantasy game.
Mike Fiers should not be added, even after that no-hitter, in the vast majority of mixed leagues. That was his second no-no, making him just the 34 pitcher ever to toss two in a career.
Gerrit Cole has allowed seven homers his last six outings. He’s also allowed 12 runs in two of the six outings, but only seven runs the other four outings. Overall the ERA is elevated at 4.17, but he’s still pitching pretty well. That is besides the homers. Only once in his career has Cole posted a HR/9 rate of 0.90, so his current mark of 1.45 certainly stands out in a negative manner. It’s especially odd to see that many homers allowed given that Cole’s 36.7 percent fly ball rate is hardly elevated in the grand scheme of things. It’s just not feasible to expect that 20.0 percent HR/FB ratio to continue unchecked given that his career mark is 10.5 percent and that he’s posted a mark over 10.5 percent just once in a full season. His pitch type distribution is virtually unchanged further supporting the likely homer regression when the innings pile up (fastball rate is down four percent; slider is up four percent).
Kevin Gausman is appealing his five-game suspension. He has a 5.00 ERA, but that doesn’t really speak to his performance to date. Gausman still has a 1.25 WHIP even with a career worst 3.75 walks per nine, as he’s just not allowing hits. The walks should come down, especially with a career best 61.8 percent first pitch strike rate, but that is somewhat counterbalanced by his absurdly low 36.4 percent of pitches thrown in the strike zone (career 42.1 percent). I’m extremely interested in the 13.0 swinging strike rate, and the fact that he’s basically stopped throwing his slider going with the split finger at the highest rate every (19.1 percent for his career and 33.6 percent this season). His split is a very good pitch that has heled batters to a wOBA under .260 in each of the past three seasons. Throwing the pitch more is great news.
Cole Hamels has more than a K per inning, and this BB/9 rate is slightly under 3.00 for the first time in four seasons at 2.95. Hamels has also seen a ground ball spike as his 56.0 percent ground ball rate would be his career best and his first season of 50 percent since 2011. He’s using his curveball a career high 15 percent of the time, the mark has been between 12.1 and 14.6 percent the last four years, so it’s nothing significant as he’s dropped his cutter usage to 17.4 percent, a four-year low. That .246 BABIP is going up, but Hamels is still likely to be an extremely useful arm the rest of the season.
Collin McHugh allowed five earned runs his first four starts. In the four starts since it’s 24 earned runs. Can’t start him anywhere at the moment. Can’t say you need to hold him either in 10/12 team mixed leagues. Would try to in 15-teamers for now, and no, Forrest Whitley is not an option right now.
John Means was a name no one cared about a month ago. Now, he’s surging. Through 32.2 innings he has 29 punchouts and a 1.01 WHIP. He’s fastball/changeup guy, he throws those two pitches 85 percent of the time, and in 2019 that’s a hard combo of pitches to dominate with as a starter unless you’re Chris Paddack (see this report on his outlook). The stuff doesn’t suggest K per inning either, and that 57.5 percent first pitch strike rate and 39 percent of pitches tossed in the zone certainly don’t suggest he will extend his early success either.
Miles Mikolas has started to lock things in. Over his last three outings he’s walked just two men, and his last two outings he’s allowed one run over 13 innings. By the way, Miles has a 1.13 WHIP which is better than Madison Bumgarner (1.15), Jacob deGrom (1.15) and Trevor Bauer (1.16). He’s also thrown at least five innings in each of his eight starts giving the Cardinals some depth, even with his struggles. The biggest issue is the homer. Last season in 200.2 innings he allowed 16 homers. This season, it’s eight allowed in 47 innings. With his stuff homers could be an issue if he’s not hitting his spots, but it’s also unlikely that his current 16 percent HR/FB ratio will continue.
Was the Mona Lisa left unfinished?
CC Sabathia has made five starts, and he’s been… CC Sabathia. The large lefty has a 2-1 record with a 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. It’s remarkable how young pitchers, with so much more arm talent, struggle to grasp the intricacies of pitching, lessons that Sabathia has learned in spades. He’s a solid option at the backend of a mixed league rotation, with one caveat; his GB/FB is currently at 0.94, by far and away a career worst. Unless he increases that number, he’s in trouble, especially when he pitches at home, as that massive 2.13 HR/9 rate is already Scarytown at the moment.
Blake Snell struggled his first two starts back from a toe injury allowing nine runs in 6.1 innings. He seemed like his old self last time out though with six shutout innings with no walks, one hit and nine strikeouts against the D’backs. #CrisisAverted
Stephen Strasburg has stopped throwing his slider. He’s thrown it just four times his first outing, and not once in his last three trips to the bump. The results? Over his last 28.1 innings he’s posted a 2.22 ERA, 0.8 WHIP and has 40 strikeouts. By the way, he was rolling along with six shutout innings before allowing four runs to Milwaukee in the 7th inning Tuesday night or the numbers would be even better.
Marcus Stroman is on the mini-McHugh plan right now allowing 11 runs, nine earned, the last two outings. He’s still only allowed two homers all year and has an 8.08 K/9 rate so there should be no panic. Still, his 55 percent ground ball rate would be his first year in five with the mark being under 60 percent, so keep an eye on that walk rate as a lead indicator of expectations.
Vince Velasquez might want to start listening to his catcher if he wants to remain in the Phillies’ rotation.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
