FGE

From the Gut – K%, BB% and HH% Leaders

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This week, let’s take a look at some starting pitcher metrics to see if we can identify whether some of these rates are sustainable or just mirages. I’ll run through K%, BB% and HH% top 10.

Strikeout Percentage

  1. Gerritt Cole (HOU) – 37.2%
  2. Blake Snell (TBR) – 35.2%
  3. Caleb Smith (MIA) – 34.8%
  4. James Paxton (NYY) – 33.6%
  5. Jacob deGrom (NYM) – 33.5%
  6. Max Scherzer (WAS) – 33.3%
  7. Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – 33.1%
  8. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – 33%
  9. Matthew Boyd (DET) – 32%
  10. Chris Paddack (SDP) – 30.7%

Many usual suspects on our leaderboard here. Five of them (Scherzer, Cole, deGrom, Snell, Carrasco) ranked among the top 10 last season and last season’s leader (Justin Verlander) ranks just outside the top 10 this season (11th – 30.3%).

The surprise guys on our list here are second-year southpaw Caleb Smith and Tigers’ veteran Boyd. Smith may not be as young as you think he is (27) since he spent 2013-2017 in the Yankees’ minor league system. Smith posted a decent strikeout rate in his rookie year (27% K in 77.1 IP before getting hurt) though had the typical yips of a first-year starter (4.19 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 10.2% BB). So far this season, he’s holding opposing batters to a .174 AVG and has reduced his walk rate almost four percent (to 7.5%). It’s not like he’s had an easy road this year with a schedule where he faced the Phillies twice as well as the Braves and Cubs. He keeps his arsenal simple (92.3 mph fourseamer, slider and changeup) and that changeup of his has caused opposing batters to swing nearly 80% inside the zone and induce a 23.5% swinging strike rate. He’s looking like an absolute steal in draft leagues and has posted top-10 overall numbers which honestly we shouldn’t be surprised if he can maintain. The horrendous offense behind him affects his ability to lock in wins for our roto squads but he has secured wins in three of seven and could easily win 14. The fact that his FIP (2.88) and xFIP (3.02) are respectable and within proximity of that unsustainable 2.11 ERA is surely a good sign. Could see Smith finishing the season as a top-20 SP with 210 K, 3.00 – 3.15 ERA and a WHIP under 1.20.

Matthew Boyd has taken his strikeouts to the next level, posting a career-best (so far) 15 percent swinging-strike rate despite having a sub-10 percent rate over his previous four seasons. His F-Strike% (first-pitch strike rate) is up seven percent from last season and he’s relying mainly on his fastball and slider (nearly 90% of his pitches) with his fastball usage rate up 50.5% from last year’s 38.8%. He’ll continue to maintain respectable numbers in that weak AL Central so long as those strikeouts stay up. Boyd has always done well at not issuing many free passes over his career (6.2% this season, 7.6% over his career).

Patrick Corbin is 19th in k-rate this year with a still-respectable 27.8% after finishing seventh last season (30.8%). He’ll remain within that 27 – 31% range this year. Second-year man Jack Flaherty ranks among the top 20 in strikeout rate (29%) but has been serving up nearly 2.0 HR/9 – a rate which should hopefully regress towards 1.5. Anthony DeSclafani has been a pleasant surprise, ranking 18th with a 28.6% rate but continues to struggle against lefty bats (.386 wOBA, 12.9% BB). We’ll just have to be careful streaming him against teams that have a few good left-handed bats. Tyler Glasnow has been pure studsville and could legitimately compete for the AL Cy Young. He’s 17th in strikeout rate and has the seventh-best walk rate (4.4%). A 1.47 ERA is far from sustainable but he could easily finish the season as a top-10 option going forward.

Walk Percentage

  1. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – 1.2%
  2. Max Scherzer (WAS) – 3.7%
  3. Jose Berrios (MIN) – 3.9%
  4. Madison Bumgarner (SFG) – 3.9%
  5. Zach Eflin (PHI) – 4.1%
  6. Zack Greinke (ARI) – 4.2%
  7. Tyler Glasnow (TBR) – 4.4%
  8. Trevor Williams (PIT) – 4.5%
  9. Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – 4.6%
  10. Miles Mikolas (STL) – 4.7%

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been incredibly stingy with just two total walks allowed through his first seven starts (44.1 IP). Ryu flashed this pizzazz last season (4.6% BB) and there are so many of us who would just love to see a full season of health from him as he hasn’t pitched more than 150 IP since 2014. His current rate is unsustainable but he could still finish the season with a rate under four percent and among the league leaders. The question is more about whether he can finish the season.

Zach Eflin has been a pleasant surprise early on in this department and has posted a 3.00 ERA despite a 4.69 xFIP and a miniscule 18 percent strikeout rate. His first-pitch strike rate is remarkable (71.8%) but his swinging-strike rate still lies under 10 percent. We’ll still have to pick our spots with him but can’t really do so based upon home vs. road matchups. Still a very small sample but he’s posted a 1.17 ERA at home and a 5.21 ERA on the road. But looking at the game logs, that ERA differential is a bit fluky when you consider he had a start at Coors (2 ER) and served up three homers (6 ER) to the Marlins in Miami.

Luke Weaver isn’t among the top 10, but he’s close. Weaver has had a string of a few good starts now and ranks among the top 20 in both walk rate (five percent) and strikeout rate (27.7%). Weaver’s 3.29 ERA is in line with his FIP (2.98) and xFIP (3.38) and he’s reduced his home runs allowed rate a tick as well. Pitching in the friendly confines of ‘humidored’ Chase Field bodes well for him going forward.

 

Hard Hit Rate

  1. Zach Eflin (PHI) – 24.2%
  2. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – 24.4%
  3. Blake Snell (TBR) – 25.6%
  4. Charlie Morton (TBR) – 26.4%
  5. Spencer Turnbull (DET) – 26.9%
  6. Zack Wheeler (NYM) – 27.4%
  7. Anibal Sanchez (WAS) – 27.6%
  8. Tyler Glasnow (TBR) – 28%
  9. Kenta Maeda (LAD) – 28.3%
  10. Pablo Lopez (MIA) – 28.9%

There’s Eflin again as I purposely left this part out to point out that he’s allowing the league’s lowest hard contact rate. We also see three Rays’ starters among the top 10 which is incredibly impressive and makes us think further about the fact that they may be legitimate championship contenders this season.

 Anibal Sanchez has been one of the best at this for the past decade. His 27.7% mark last season was among the league’s lowest as that number is nearly identical to this year’s mark and not far off from his career rate of 28.2%. Sanchez has been sloppy with allowing free passes (12.6%) but that’s a rate that should trend towards his career rate of eight percent, especially pitching in the NL West with half of his games in that home park.

Two surprising guys on this list are Spencer Turnbull and Pablo Lopez. Not ironically, two guys I targeted and told you to target in the late rounds back in preseason. Turnbull has some major differential between ERA (2.31) and xFIP (4.28) but has a decent 11.2 percent SwStr% and has been stingy on the homers (just two allowed in 39 innings / seven starts). He has been particularly good at stifling right-handed bats (.240 wOBA) and will continue to have the benefit of pitching often in this weak division. Just note that he’ll have some starts where he serves up runs as that sub-2.50 ERA moves closer to 3.30-3.50, but that’s okay considering you likely plucked him off FAAB in 15-teamers for very little. Lopez has had some bad luck actually – a 4.03 ERA but a 2.80 FIP and has allowed just nine walks (39 strikeouts) over 38 innings. He has allowed four earned runs in three of his seven games in tough road matchups (4.98 road ERA) but has been splendid at home (2.76 ERA, .232 wOBA) and should continue to be streamed there.

On the flip side of the hard-hit list are a few good names. Fireballer rookie Chris Paddack ranks second behind Jose Urena with a 47.3% hard-hit rate and Shane Bieber (46.9%) ranks third. We’ve seen pitchers give up plenty of hard contact and have good seasons before a la 2017 Robbie Ray who ranked among the league leaders in walk rate, hard-hit rate and strikeout rate while maintaining a 2.89 ERA. Paddack and Bieber are future studs who are already showcasing their unique abilities to opposing batters but I would be a tad concerned for them both getting occasionally blown up and running into bad luck with their aggressive style and high hard-hit rates. Paddack has been dynamite thus far (1.55 ERA) but that 3.43 xFIP of his seems much more in line to what his end-of-season ERA might be. Bieber has been better against lefties (.220 AVG, .319 wOBA) than he has in his rookie season (.316 AVG, .383 wOBA) and that should the key differentiator for better success this season. I’m sure you’ve noticed a trend here, but there are many category leaders in the AL Central which is something we preached here in the preseason in terms of late-round pitching targets. I’ll do another review of these specific categories in a couple of months to see how some of these late-round studs faired.