Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.316 |
.244 |
.319 |
.418 |
.174 |
14.3 |
1.19 |
THE LAST 14 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid with your batters.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters.
The ORANGE marks the crazy bullpen usage of the Rays. Note that their extensive use of the Opener will always doom them in the innings pitched category which will artificially reduce their rankings a bit each time we run BURR.
Second, because of the vagaries of homers allowed over a mere two-week span, the two-week review will remove the impact of the home run.
The Brewers are finally finding their groove, helped by the return of Jeremy Jeffress.
The Phillies lost David Robertson, and things seemed to have fallen into place.
The Royals, surprisingly, found some footing the last couple of weeks.
Raisel Iglesias isn’t happy with his role, and his recent performance has actually knocked down some solid pen work by the Reds.
The A’s struggling is surprising.
THE LAST 30 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid meaning the bullpen is doing great in that category.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters as the arms are failing in that category.
PURPLE: Any number that is 25 percent or better than the league average (except for homer runs which is discussed next).
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a huge number would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
The Cubs have rebounded after a slow start.
The Astros continue to excel.
The Reds are surging, bolstered by the best swinging strike rate in the game the last 30 days. The Cardinals are the other group with a huge number in this category.
The Giants have slumped a bit, but have still been solid.
The Dodgers have been getting good length from their starters of late, relaxing the load on the bullpen. The Nationals and Twins have thrown even less innings per outing the last month.
The Padres have the third best SWIP but there has been some slippage the last four weeks.
No surprises, the teams in green that can be attacked by the offense.
