These are the names that are discussed in this piece: Clay Buchholz, Zach Eflin, Domingo German, J.A. Happ, Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas, Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Erik Swanson, Julio Teheran, Justin Verlander and Spencer Turnbull. Which guys are going in the right direction? Which of the hurlers are showing signs of potential danger around the corner? Ray Flowers breaks it all down. Ray also discusses what the plan appears to be with the Padres’ Chris Paddack. Just how many bullets is the phenom going to be allowed to throw?
PADRES PLAN FOR PADDACK?
Chris Paddack has been phenomenal this season, flat out fantastic really, for the Padres. The question has always been though, how many innings will the Padres allow him to throw this season? Here are the highlights from a recent report from MLB.com.
Paddack missed the 2017 season after Tommy John surgery.
Paddack threw just 90 innings last season.
Paddack’s agent, Scott Boras, said that the righties innings will be “managed” this season.
Paddack is currently on pace to throw just under 170-innings.
There is no definitive, in-stone, number.
“The intent,” said manager Andy Green, “is to keep Chris pitching on the mound in meaningful games as long as possible… it’s mapped out with the intention for adjustments, as well. So, to sit here and walk through exactly what we think is going to happen would be foolish.”
Paddack laid out what he thinks should happen.
“I know they’re not looking at just this year. They’re looking at the next 10 years. … I’m gradually going to grow each year. Last year I threw 90 innings. This year my goal is anywhere from 130 to 150. But I don’t know what they’re going to do.”
This is yet another reminder that Paddack will be managed this season, and it’s unclear how that will occur. Paddack could have starts skipped. He could have outings limited to a few innings (in his seven starts he’s yet to throw 92 pitches while averaging 87 tosses per outing). It’s unlikely that he will just pitch, week after week, without any skipping of turns until he hits the magic number and then see his season ended. The fact is that we’re likely on a week-to-week thing with Paddack, to the point that he’s likely to have starts skipped at the last moment, giving us little time to adjust our fantasy lineups.
THE REST OF THE PACK
Clay Buchholz was bombed last time out allowing two homers and seven runs over four innings. That’s five homers in 4-straight outings, at least one each time out, and in those four outings he has an 8.20 ERA, a 4.82 K/9 rate and 1.71 WHIP. He’s just not that good, doesn’t miss enough bats, and just when you buy in, he ends up on the injured list.
Zach Eflin has made seven starts, and he’s been extremely effective for the Phillies. The 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP sparkle, as does the fact that he’s walked seven batters in seven starts. Now, the reality check. Eflin has struck out less than seven batters per nine, and his swinging strike rate of 9.2 percent suggests that isn’t likely to change much. It’s also unlikely he’s going to hold on to the 72 percent first pitch strike rate as well. Further, he’s not going to continue to limit batters to a 14 percent line drive rate, and though he’s been successful he has still allowed seven homers leading to a swollen HR/9 rate of 1.50. Solid, but it wouldn’t hurt to listen to trade offers.
Domingo German has brought his heater to game action this season at 1.0 mph less than last season. He also has a three year low with a 50 percent first pitch strike rate. Still, he has a strong 12.7 swinging strike rate, and his 2.82 BB/9 rate is well below his career 3.52 mark. German has been quite fortunate with a 5.1 HR/FB ratio that isn’t even half his career 12.7 percent mark, and it’s unlikely the success will continue along these lines unless he improves against righties (4.00 BB/9 and a fortunate .167 BABIP).
J.A. Happ allowed suns runs back on April 12th and there was a good deal of concern that the 36 year old lefty might be slowing down. Over his last four outings the old Happ has shown up – mostly. While he has allowed just 25 base runners in 26 innings (four walks), he’s allowed five homers while striking out less than five batters per nine innings. Happ knows how to pitch, and though he’s been better of late, 5.2 innings or more each outing, the lost punchouts still leave the verdict on where his first half will end up a bit in the air.
Kenta Maeda has struggled. The walks are way up (4.19 per nine) and the punchouts are way down (7.91 per nine). His SIERA (4.95) and xFIP (4.75) are also at career worst levels. Batters are not hitting him hard – his exit velocity on batted balls is down two mph and the hard-hit rate is down a percent – but he hasn’t been fine with his pitches, and in essence, has been beating himself. One would assume improvement would come, but this is a disappointing start that leaves one to wonder if the Dodgers might flex him to the bullpen at some point soon.
A bear in a hot tub. Of course.
Frankie Montas has allowed one run in 3-of-4 outings, though the fourth outing was seven runs allowed (luckily for him just one run was earned). Montas hasn’t allowed a homer in four starts, and he’s walked just seven batters in five outings. I’m still not seeing any shades of dominance, but with every outing his feasibility as a mixed league option grows.
Jake Odorizzi is rolling with more than a K per inning. He’s also got the worst GB/FB of his career (0.54) which hasn’t been noticed as he’s got a mere 4.9 percent HR/FB ratio. The homers will increase, and the ERA will go way up. He’s being shielded from seeing the opposition a third time, and with that he will continue to be a potential mixed league streaming option, albeit one who is a virtual lock to see his ratios worsen, likely by a good deal.
Rick Porcello has thrown 3-straight quality starts allowing just five runs. He sure looks like he’s turned the corner after his very concerning start. View him as you did six weeks ago.
Who is ringing your doorbell?
Erik Swanson hasn’t beat himself in five outings with a 1.90 BB/9 rate, but other than that there hasn’t been much to get excited about in any setup. The K/9 rate is under 6.50, and he’s been mashed for 1.90 homers per nine. He’s also had no answer whatsoever for righties allowing a massive .302/.318/.628 slash line in the limited work he has this season. No real interest here.
Julio Teheran has 48 punchouts in 44.2 innings, but he’s also allowed eight homers with a far too large 4.03 walk rate per nine. He takes the ball, and has nice spurts here and there, but right now lefties have a .392 OBP against him while he’s allowed a .456 SLG at home to everyone. He’s been a disappointment, despite the strikeouts.
Justin Verlander is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA this season. He’s been who he was drafted to be. Same time, he’s been giving up homers like his life depended on it. In eight starts Verlander has been taken deep 10 times including at least one in every single outing this season. Though he’s walked three batters in three starts, those homers shouldn’t be ignored. Still, his HR/FB rate has never been over 11.5 percent casting a big cloud over the likelihood that his current rate of 19.6 will continue. Should also be noted that his 42 percent fly ball rate is actually a five year low, so if he keeps pitching like he has to this point, and the homers regress as they should, well, we’re still gonna have that top-5 starting pitcher on our hands.
Spencer Turnbull has been a godsend for the Tigers. In seven starts he owns a 2.31 ERA and 1 1.18 WHIP as he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs every single time out. The last four times out he’s even improved on the expectation game allowing just three runs (two earned). He’s only allowed two homers, and just once has he walked more than two guys in an outing. His stuff just doesn’t indicate that he should be this successful. It’s also concerning that his work on the 4-seam fastball this season has been far from ideal (a mere 11.3 K-rate with a .310 BAA and .492 expected slugging percentage). He would be a good fella to put out there as a potential sell in your mixed league as it’s very unlikely that this run of impressive work is going to extend into the dog days of summer.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
