Last week, the essentials were provided. Both Jeff Mans (Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings) and I (Rookie Dynasty Rankings) posted Dynasty Rankings, and also, a Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft. If your rookie draft was last week, that should’ve been able to provide a great baseline. HOWEVER, I know there’s a lot of folks out there who want some context on these prospects, and so, that will be provided. Each fantasy-relevant position will be evaluated, and important information pertaining to prospects as both college players and their team fit will be broken down.
This piece was initially supposed to have ten QBs on it. But after further consideration, it’s truly not worth reviewing the final five QBs drafted in the 2019 NFL draft. QBs drafted beyond round three of the NFL draft have almost zero chance of getting on an NFL field, never mind becoming a long term starter (Unless you’re Tom Brady). Between Eagles QB Clayton Thorson, Chargers QB Easton Stick, Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, Ravens QB Trace McSorley and Bengals QB Ryan Finley, there’s little-to-no upside in taking these players in a rookie draft, and they’re essentially wasting a roster spot. If you want to learn more about those prospects, I wrote about all of them in this piece previewing QBs that received a combine invite.
- Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins
Haskins has a lot of naysayers at this stage, and dropping out of the top ten of the 2019 NFL draft was another data point for questioning his ability. Haskins was only a one-year starter at Ohio State, and with their struggles in big games, there’s a relatively small sample of what Haskins looks like against top talent. With that said, Haskins is the clear top QB in this class (In my humble opinion). Based on the 2018 season he put together, his prototypical size and solid arm strength, it’s really, really hard to not see him develop into a 5+ year starter. Haskins passed for 50 touchdowns in 14 games in 2018 and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. One of his biggest knocks is that he completed a significant portion of his passes close to the line of scrimmage. This is true, however, he was running the system Ohio State had set up. They were coming off a few year run with a QB (J.T. Barrett), who was almost solely a running QB, and had amazing skill position players who were optimized on close to the line of scrimmage targets. Between Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J Hill and Binjimen Victor (Hill and Victor are 2020 WR prospects), there’s an incredible amount of athleticism college defenses can’t keep up with in one-on-one situations.
Haskins steps into a situation where the skill position players have a lot of talent, in theory. Between Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, Derrius Guice and Jordan Reed, there’s an immense amount of talent… IF they could stay on field, it’d be a great situation. However, anyone who’s played fantasy football over the last five seasons knows this core simply can’t accomplish those goals. The Redskins did bring in two WRs during the draft: college teammate Terry McLaurin in the third round and North Carolina State WR Kelvin Harmon in the sixth round. QB Case Keenum is going to be stiff competition in training camp and preseason, but if Haskins translates as his college profile would indicate, he should be able to win the job. Haskins probably doesn’t have high-end fantasy upside compared to players like Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes or Colts QB Andrew Luck, but if looking for a long term starter who can be a reliable option for years to come, this is someone to take seriously. From a fantasy perspective, it’s tough to take him over Kyler Murray in a rookie draft. Haskins is EASILY gettable at 1.04 currently in SuperFlex (SF) drafts, and the mid-to-late second round of 1QB drafts. The price is reasonable, and he’s worth getting multiple shares of ownership.
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray. Kliff Kingsbury. David Johnson. Christian Kirk. Larry Fitzgerald. Andy Isabella. Hakeem Butler. This is a group of names that will be integral parts of the Arizona Cardinals offense. In theory, this should be a great combination, and in theory, there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around. Murray is entering the NFL as the top selection in the 2019 NFL draft and essentially the consensus 1.01 in SF rookie drafts. There is no doubt Murray has a lot of upside, and even if things don’t go as planned for him as a passer, his rushing upside will always be appealing. With that said, like Haskins, he only has one year of prolific production (Though, it was VERY prolific), and he’s not receiving the same type of skepticism as Haskins.
Murray’s college career started out at Texas A&M, and it didn’t go well. Murray played eight games in his freshman season, and quite frankly, looked overmatched. Murray finished that year with 686 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and seven interceptions on 121 attempts. A small sample, yes, but it was a small sample because Murray was benched, in favor of Kyle Allen. Who is Kyle Allen you ask? Exactly, would be my answer. Murray transferred to Oklahoma and completely turned his career around after that. 2018 was one of the best QB seasons in college football history (42 passing TDs and 11.6 yards per attempt on 377 passing attempts), and despite having a plethora of special weapons at his disposal (WRs CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown), there’s no doubt Murray was the main cog in Oklahoma’s offensive wheel. Murray is clearly a talented asset, and playing with an innovative head coach and solid skill position players should provide some solid sparks in his rookie season. The main concern with Murray is the concern with all running QBs and QBs of smaller stature. Can he stay healthy? This may seem like a semantical idea, but the real distinguishing factor between Haskins and Murray is Haskins doesn’t put himself in harm’s way. Running QBs undeniably have higher upside in the short term, but when evaluating longevity for the position (unless it’s a special situation like Russell Wilson), they simply can’t stay on the field consistently.
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones has become a laughing stock of both the NFL draft and fantasy football communities since being selected sixth overall in the 2019 NFL draft. His lackluster college profile, draft position and anti-analytics GM (David Gettleman) have created a swirling tornado of negativity that resonates in a lot of ways, but most importantly from a fantasy perspective, in rookie draft ADP. Jones is currently going in the mid-to-late second round of SF mock drafts and outside the top three rounds of 1QB drafts. Jones is by no means an exciting prospect, and certainly doesn’t scream upside at the position, but much like Bills QB Josh Allen in 2018 rookie drafts, that is not only priced into their market value but makes them appealing from an odds standpoint. Since 2000, 49.1 percent of QBs selected in round one of the NFL draft had two seasons with 3,000 or more passing yards. 35.8 percent had three. Based on his college profile, is Jones more likely to land on the “miss” side of the equation? Sure. But even if that’s true, and even if Jones is horrible, a starting QB in the NFL is a starting QB in the NFL. There doesn’t need to be a big explanation of why owning a starting QB of ANY caliber is incredibly valuable in SF leagues, but even in 1QB leagues, in the range of the draft he’s going, his odds of helping your fantasy team are IMMENSELY higher than the 4th-6th round skill position players being selected around him.
Jones had an ugly college career on a terrible Duke offense. In every game against big-time opponents, Jones’ teammates were incredibly outmatched, and there was only so much he could do to average things out. With that said, he had his fair share of struggles against weaker opponents as well and ended his college career (three-year starter) with a 6.4 yards per attempt and a 52:29 TD:INT ratio. Ugly stuff. The good news for Jones is the Giants offense is stocked with solid skill position players, and even if he doesn’t start in year one, there’s plenty of young weapons that will be around for most of his first contract. Between Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley, Jones has a fantastic young core to work with, and if veteran WR Golden Tate can stick around for a few years, he’ll have plenty of weapons to help transition.
- Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Lock was a great upside pick for the Denver Broncos, and if QB Joe Flacco struggles out of the gate in 2019, Lock could be looking at opportunity sooner than currently expected. Lock was the lone QB selected in the second round of the 2019 NFL draft, and he was arguably the only QB to land in spot where playing time in the first few seasons of his career was a legitimate possibility. Lock was largely viewed as a first round QB prospect throughout the process, because of his prototypical size, big arm and solid production in a power five school. Lock was a three-year starter at Missouri and made the most of his opportunities in his final two seasons. Lock threw 44 touchdowns in 2017 and 28 in 2018, keeping 3:1 TD:INT ratio throughout his final two seasons against incredibly stiff competition. Lock was also very erratic throughout his career, and there were a lot of passes (especially in big games) that had a lot of scouts and draft evaluators very worried about his consistency in the NFL. Lock also has had major issues with handling pressure. All QBs struggle with pressure, but Lock had very pronounced issues that should be taken seriously.
With all that said, Lock presents interesting upside from a fantasy perspective because of Flacco. Flacco is entering his age 34 season and is coming off essentially five straight seasons of declining play. This ultimately culminated in the Ravens drafting QB Lamar Jackson in round one of the 2018 NFL draft and subbing him in for Flacco in the middle of last year. The Broncos invested a minimal amount (fourth-round pick) in trading for the veteran, and drafting Lock with a reasonably high equity selection is clear hedging of bets. The Broncos are currently rebuilding their offense, and with WR Emmanuel Sanders heading into his age 32 season, there isn’t a plethora of riches for Lock to rely on if he does get playing time. Second-year WR Courtland Sutton showed promise as a rookie and is a nice piece to build off of, but the Broncos will likely stick with their run-heavy scheme over the next couple of seasons, regardless of who is running the offense. As mentioned with Giants QB Daniel Jones, the upside of owning a starting QB, even on the low-end side, begins to outweigh low odd late round skill position players in rookie drafts.
- Will Grier, Carolina Panthers
Grier was a favorite of many analytics-based evaluators throughout the draft process, and while falling to the third round isn’t optimal, there’s a sliver of light to see opportunity in the coming years. What is that opportunity you ask? QB Cam Newton has taken a lot of punishment over the last couple of seasons, culminating in the major shoulder issues he played through for most of 2018 (Missed the final two games of 2018 when the Panthers were officially out of playoff contention). Technically, Newton has played 14 or more games in every season of his career, but for those tracking even somewhat close, he’s been severely limited in about half of those seasons due to injuries. Not only is Newton a QB, but he’s coming up on 1,000 career rushing attempts (929), and he’s been above 90 in every season of his career. This is great from a fantasy perspective, but brutal if he wants to sustain a career into his mid-30s. Newton is just a couple of days away from turning 30, and with Grier being a top three round selection, there’s at least reasoning behind thinking the Panthers could move on from him in a couple seasons.
The Panthers offense is fully loaded for whatever QB is at the helm. Between RB Christian McCaffrey, WR D.J. Moore and WR Curtis Samuel, the Panthers offense has incredibly explosive weapons that can work in multiple areas of the field. While TE Greg Olsen is seemingly on his last legs as an NFL player, the Panthers have intriguing upside at the position with what 2018 fourth-round selection Ian Thomas displayed at the end of last year. The point being, if Grier were to somehow gain a starting opportunity, he’d be in a great situation. Grier thrived in a wide-open West Virginia offense in his two-year run as their starter. Grier averaged 9.1 yards per attempt for his career and threw 81 touchdowns to only 23 interceptions. Grier was highly accurate (career 65.7 completion percentage), considering the volume of deep passing that took place. It won’t cost much to invest in Grier in rookie drafts. He’s far from a hot item, and even in SF leagues, he can float to the late third or even fourth round of rookie drafts. This is a nice prospect to stash.
- Jarrett Stidham, New England Patriots
Over the last five or so seasons, every offseason the talks of QB Tom Brady retirement grow louder. While Brady could (at this stage) conceivably play for the rest of eternity, for most mortals, father time is undefeated. Selecting Stidham isn’t the same as picking QB Jimmy Garoppolo (round two selection in 2014), but there’s meat on the bone with this prospect, and becoming a Jacoby Brissett-type asset is certainly viable. In 1QB leagues, it’s really tough to envision Stidham making sense for any league with less than 25 roster spots, but in large-roster and SF dynasty leagues, he’s a solid lottery ticket in the fourth or fifth round of a rookie draft. There’s almost no interest in Stidham from the fantasy community after a quiet draft process and underwhelming landing spot, but it wouldn’t be the first time a Patriots backup QB has received a starting opportunity after sitting in their system for multiple seasons.
Stidham was a two-year starter at Auburn after transferring from Baylor. Stidham was accurate and managed the run-heavy Auburn attack well in his two seasons. There wasn’t much flash to the offense, and the skill position players didn’t do him any favors, especially against top-end SEC competition. Stidham was a big part of the reason Auburn beat both Georgia and Alabama in 2017, and his ability to control the ball, clock and not make mistakes was impressive against those talent-heavy opponents. Stidham has solid size (listed at 6 foot 2 and 218 pounds) and can clearly run an offense efficiently. He’s worth targeting in the fourth or fifth round of SF rookie drafts.
