The last two weeks there has been a lot of change in the performance of a whole host of hitters. Some guys who started off hot, have since slowed. Conversely, some who started slowly have started to pick things up. You know Ray, he’s way more negative than positive, so the majority of the piece will focus on batters that have seen their offense all but dry up the last two weeks.
HITTERS: THE LAST TWO WEEKS – HOT
Michael Chavis (.348-6-13-13-2 the last two week) has been tremendous. He’s also got a K-rate over 25 percent, has a .379 BABIP and a 22.9 percent barrel rate. He’s been insanely good, but there’s just no earthly way he maintains the BABIP and barrel rate, and even with all the early season success his expected batting average is just .269.
Eduardo Escobar (.435-5-12-12) has a .926 OPS right now, more than .100 points better than the career best he set last season at .824. He’s not gonna sustain his 18.9 percent HR/FB ratio, the mark was 12.4 percent the last two years. He’s also increased his pull percentage 10 percent from the last two years, which could obviously help the homers while making a run to a .300 batting average highly unlikely.
Ketel Marte (.318-5-11-14-1) has hit two homers in a game, twice this season. All that hitting has his OPS up to .871. With a previous career best of .768, it’s clearly a stretch to suggest what we are seeing here is gonna continue. Be wary of the 22.5 percent HR/FB ratio given that he’s never posted a mark of 11 percent before.
Jose Martinez (.381/.438/.548) has been absolutely crushing it with the stick in his hands. He only has two homers on the season, but his effort with the bat the last three weeks has been even better than the last two (.391/.437/.563). With Tyler O’Neill in the minors now, the Cards are gonna give Martinez playing time until he stops hitting. Will he?
Franmil Reyes (.326-5-8-7) has a massive 93.7 percent exit velocity and 19.0 percent barrel rate. Those are elite numbers with his 48.1 percent hard-hit rate just off elite. His expected SLG is also .662, another massive number. He’s an advanced metrics monster.
Anthony Rizzo (.311-5-14-8-1) seemingly always starts slowly, and he always produces in the end.
Eric Sogard (.353-4-7-10) is someone to ride until it ends. However, the fact is that time is likely now. He has 10 walks and five strikeouts, but it’s only a matter of time before the bat recedes and he’s replaced by Drury/Gurriel/Biggio.
Jesse Winker (.340-3-5-12) has a .444 wOBA and a 178 wRC+ the last two weeks. Can we please move on from the ‘should I add him’ stuff? He’s legit.
How wrong is this?
HITTERS: THE LAST TWO WEEKS – COLD
Ronald Acuna (0 homers, 0 steals) obviously is a star, but he has been very hot and cold to this point of the campaign.
Peter Alonso (.208/.278/.396) has been a wunderkind to this point offering tremendous levels of production. Tremendous. That said, his work the last two weeks has slowed appreciably compared to the start. That K-rate is up to 29 percent, and it’s highly unlikely he’s gonna maintain that 30+ HR/FB ratio. At home he has an impressive .969 OPS, but he’s also hit .250 with a substantial 31 percent K-rate in New York as some slight concerns begins to grow.
Jose Altuve (.170/.316/.319) is on pace for 40-100-90, but he’s also hitting .250 with just one steal in three outings. Things will level out for Altuve, we know who he is, but the odd nature of his performance to date is likely a sample size thing, but having some mild concerns is legit at this point.
Tim Anderson (.220/.250/.380) hasn’t vanished the last two weeks, but he’s been as cold the last two as he was hot the two before it. Anderson has a horrendous 0.17 B/KK ratio on the campaign, and that .379 BABIP is .049 points above his norm. He’s never had a HR/FB ratio of 14.5 percent, but he’s currently at 20 percent. His hard-hit rate is up at 37.6 percent, way above his 31.1 percent career mark. He has the talent to star, no doubt, but his terrible approach is always going to lend itself to periods of extremely poor efforts like the last two weeks.
Michael Conforto (.205-0-2-2) has a .405 OBP and .901 OPS on the year, and his 0.81 BB/K ratio is extremely encouraging. He’s even hit .286/.325/.500 against lefties in the early going. Slow of late, but overall very encouraging.
Khris Davis (.182-0-5-8) blasted his way to a league leading 10 homers, and then they vanished. He also ran into a wall over the weekend when he was forced to play defense instead of filling the DH role. That said, he should be fine physically, and we all know that Davis is a rock of counting category stability season after season.
Maikel Franco (.222/.271/.333) has had a tremendous start to the year, especially since he’s hitting down in the Phillies order. He doesn’t strike out leading to an uber-impressive 1.00 BB/K ratio, but he’s still hitting just .254, his current line drive rate would be a career worst, and he’s lifting the ball about 10 percent more than normal which will help the power numbers but obviously impact the ability of Franco to do much to help in the batting average category which is already an area where he’s just a guy.
Jason Kipnis (-27 wRC+) might be the worst player in baseball the last two weeks. There’s nothing to hang your hat on with Kipnis as he’s just shown nothing this season.
Wil Myers (.125-1-3-6-0) has been so-so on the course of the season, and he has been awful the last two weeks. The real issue at this point is his contact rate. Myers has a 25 percent K-rate in his career, but thus far the mark is 37 percent. That’s scary awful terrible. Given his overall game, and his track record of consistency, it seems exceedingly unlikely that he would just forget how to put the wood on the ball.
Renato Nunez (.156/.191/.267) was hot. Now he’s not. Nunez is a hacker at this point, his 0.19 BB/K ratio is half the league average, and his OPS is down to .714 after the last two weeks. Renato is batting .226 with a .270 OBP against righties this season, further showing just how blah his outlook is. Looking like an AL-only option.
Domingo Santana (.146-1-4-3-1) was one of the best hitters in baseball to start the season. The last couple of weeks he’s been one of the worst. He’s currently on pace for 37 homers, 135 RBI and 70 runs scored with 18 steals. Still, I get questions nearly daily about if he should be sent to the waiver wire. Did you think he was gonna drive in a run per game? With all his swings and misses did you think he was gonna hit .300? The expectations got so out of whack with this fella that people are now disappointed in his effort to date. That’s just nuts.
Justin Smoak (.150-0-2-3) has a .808 OPS last seasons. This year the mark is .816.
Kolten Wong (.186-0-3-3-2) has caved, as predicted. His average of .248 is now below his .254 career mark, but he still has an impressive .376 OBP thanks in no small part to his 0.95 BB/K ratio. He’s unlikely to be an appreciably different hitter than he’s been for years. The breakout some were seemingly predicting two weeks ago, well, it ain’t likely to happen.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
