SUNDAY UPDATE:
Closers
* Shawn Kelley (RH/TEX) – He’s going to garner the highest bids given he’s the shiny new toy and since LeClerc has been temporarily displaced from the ninth-inning role. He’s a 35-year-old vet playing a bit over his head right now (1.29 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) and *could* certainly hold the job all year, but I believe LeClerc will take it back in a couple weeks. LeClerc pitched a clean inning with a couple strikeouts over the weekend. I’ll keep my Kelley bids reasonable but may push it where I need saves badly, just in case.
* ANGELS – Right now it looks like it’s still Hansel Robles with Ty Buttrey occasionally grabbing opportunities. The waters are further mudied because Cody Allen is returning from the IL and could reclaim his spot. If Robles is still available in your 15-teamers, you’ve got to bid. But in 12’s, he can be a conditional for you and you probably shouldn’t go nuts for him.
* BRAVES – Luke Jackson‘s notched his first save today since last Sunday in extra innings. Not sure if he’s the actual guy as Jacob Webb nabbed their last opp earlier this week and A.J. Minter is still there and could take it back any time.
Starting Pitchers
With the Orioles game postponed Sunday, John Means goes Monday instead and will line up for two starts (v BOS, v LAA) – biddable if available in 15-teamers but a dice roll with these Red Sox’ bats able to crush lefty arms and recently heating up.
You’ll want to bid on both Drew Pomeranz and Anthony DeSclafani if available in 12-teamers as they’ll face each other twice this week. DeSclaf struggles against LHH’s (.390 wOBA since last season) but these Giants pose very little trouble to opposing SP’s this season.
Cal Quantrill deserves some attention in 15-team leagues. Faces the Mets at home this week, but good luck snagging that win with Syndergaard starting for New York. The reason I didn’t list him originally is because he’ll likely be demoted. The Padres wisely got creative to save Paddack some innings and this rotation is fairly set. Quantrill can force his way in at the expense of Nick Margevicius but Margevicius has been serviceable.
Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
TWO-START PITCHERS
**percentage-owned listed for NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues
Griffin Canning RHP/LAA (0% – @ DET, @ BAL) – The kid looked good in his first MLB start and is going to have folks throw wicked high bids on him this weekend. I’m in on the fun as well on teams where I feel I need pitching. Throwing half of your remaining budget seems a bit overkill because we can’t really draw the conclusion he’ll be utterly dominant all season – he simply won’t. But matchups with the Tigers and Orioles are a very enticing start for him. He’s certainly MLB ready but won’t be without his blemishes along the way.
Martin Perez LHP/MIN (75% – @ TOR, v DET) – What more do you need to believe in Perez’s new-found velocity than that absolute gem against the Astros where he fired eight scoreless innings. The two-start week looks good to boot. I’m crediting my Platinum and Main partner Rob Silver with convincing me this is real three weeks ago so I have some shares already. Biddable in 12-team leagues too, but I wouldn’t go triple-digits.
Lucas Giolito RHP/CWS (66% – @ CLE, @ TOR) – Giolito once again looks like the first-round prospect we fawned over when he was with the Nationals. It’s difficult to get that taste out of our mouths of last season where he was one of the league’s worst pitchers. But he increased his strikeout rate over the second half last year, and though a 5.32 ERA isn’t all that enticing, keep in mind the xFIP is 3.64 and he’s whiffing over 11 batters-per-nine. Not to mention an impressive 13% swinging-strike rate, which is a massive improvement over last year’s 8.3% mark. He’s definitely worth adding in 15-team leagues, and I’d imagine some in 12-teamers may want to consider streaming him too, possibly auditioning him for the long haul.
C.C. Sabathia LHP/NYY (54%,12-team OCs – v SEA, @ TBR) – Recently joining the 3000 strikeout club, it’s wild to think CC has been pitching since 2001 but is still 15 months away from the age of 40. His 1.03 WHIP and 2.66 ERA is deceiving though (4.99 FIP), and don’t be surprised to see a touch of correction in one of these two starts. The Mariners’ top-half of the lineup crushes lefties, and it seems like the start against the Rays is the more palpable one since some of their best hitters are lefties (but he’ll still have to contend with Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz and Avisail Garcia).
Others to Consider: Merrill Kelly RHP/ARI (41%,12-team OCs – @ TB, v ATL), Dakota Hudson RHP/STL (56% – v PHI, v PIT)
Possible Traps
Jefry Rodriguez RHP/CLE (7% – v CWS, @ OAK) – Some may look to bid on J-Rod in deeper leagues since he lines up for two, but you’ve been forewarned. His 2.13 ERA through two starts is masked by a 4.54 xFIP and .179 BABIP. Just six strikeouts through 12-plus innings, but he’s more of a strike-thrower than those two outings showcased. Either way, that @ OAK start is scary, and it will all eventually unravel. Not to mention, he was promoted for that first start against the White Sox on Tuesday, so if it doesn’t go well, he won’t be back for the weekend start.
Taylor Clarke RHP/ARI (0% – @ TB, v ATL) – 25-year-old former third-round prospect who should step in temporarily for Zack Godley in the Dbacks’ rotation. He’s spent two full seasons in Triple-A and hasn’t been all that terrific through his first four starts (ERA over 6.00) but fired five scoreless innings in his latest outing. Available in NFBC’s since he pitched three innings for the big club. A 15-team dart-throw if you’re feeling lucky.
Others you may not want: Sandy Alcantara (@ CHC, @ NYM), Daniel Norris (v LAA, @ MIN)
Single Starts
Chris Bassitt RHP/OAK (75% – v CLE) – Very few are sure where the recent string of knock-out performances have come from by this 30-year-old who has only pitched more than 50 innings in the majors once, and that was back in 2015 (13 starts, 5 relief appearances: 3.56 ERA, 4.50 xFIP). Nothing in his profile has changed at all outside of a big increase in SwStr% – a 14.4% rate this year, 8% over his career. His pitch mix and velocity is the same as it’s always been. BUT, what are we really looking at here? We’re talking about a two-game sample size. Sure, we can bid for him if still available for this home start against Cleveland, but I’d put my money on heavy regression sooner than later and he won’t be this team’s ace. Worth up to $50 in a 15-teamer to find out? Sure. But not more than that.
Felix Pena RHP/LAA (76% – @ DET) – The main issue with Pena is the Angels rarely let him go five innings, no matter how he’s faring. In five starts, he’s pitched five only twice. Last outing against the Blue Jays he came in after opener Cam Bedrosian and was cruuuuising up until his final inning where he gave up runs (including two homers) in a hurry. A possible rental in 15’s for us based upon strikeout potential and the matchup with these Tigers, who rank fourth in strikeout rate against righties (26.6%) and second-worst against them in ISO (.135; Marlins are dead last vs. RHP at .104).
Closer Corner
To be updated on Sunday, but right now Shawn Kelley RHP/TEX is the guy we’re bidding on with LeClerc removed from the Rangers’ ninth-inning role.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games:
National League: ATL, MIA, WAS, CHC, CIN, STL, ARI, LAD, SFG
American League: NYY, CHW, CLE, DET, MIN, HOU, LAA, SEA
Teams with 5 games: None
THE GOOD
- Rockies – Always good when they’re at home. Six games (v SFG, v SDP) where they may face up to five lefties. That’s fantastic for Arenado and Story, who both have wOBAs over .400 against lefties. May not seem ideal for guys like Blackmon or Dahl, but you play them anyways. Blackmon has always hit lefties well, and Dahl has a .386 wOBA and .227 ISO against them this season. Play all Rockies.
- Giants – Listed by default because they play three at Coors Field but also get four against the Reds (Monday on the road than three at home on the weekend). They’ll face mostly RHPs, which we’re playing Brandon Belt (.410 wOBA vs RHP) in 12-teamers and considering adding rentals like Steven Duggar and Joe Panik in 15-teamers.
- Red Sox – Here’s hoping Betts and Martinez truly hit their stride with a three-game series against the Orioles (Cashner/Hess/Straily currently projected). Then it’s three against the Mariners. Not many southpaws currently scheduled so we can fire up Mitch Moreland for the week.
- Angels – Almost a perfect schedule with seven on the slate (4 @ DET, 3 @ BAL). They will run in to Matthew Boyd, but otherwise, it’s really nice for lefty bats like Kole Calhoun (.300 ISO) and Brian Goodwin (.413 wOBA). We should fire up Tommy La Stella too until he officially gets caught for juicing (I kid!). An amazingly low 6.2% strikeout rate against them along with a .306 ISO and a 149 wRC+. It’s all temporary.
- Twins – You’re playing most of your Twins this week with 3 @ TOR and 4 v DET. That means Byron Buxton and Marwin Gonzalez as well even if they’re not in the lineup for every game. Buxton is in the 95th percentile in Hard-Hit % and Exit Velocity but doesn’t have the raw stats to back it up. That should hopefully begin to correct soon.
THE BAD
- Rangers – A rough schedule for them with six on the road, including four at Houston to face those dreaded aces. You’re rolling out Gallo and Andrus no matter what but can consider sitting an ice-cold Odor or an over-achieving Choo in 10 and 12-team leagues.
- Royals – They face a tough group of pitchers (Astros, Phillies). You’re still playing Merrifield, Mondesi and Dozier but can consider benching the rest for better options if they’re on your roster.
- Pirates – This offense stinks as is, and they’ll be playing four games in St. Louis. Sure, we start Marte and probably Polanco but the rest are questionable depending on our alternatives.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Corner Infielders – *Nate Lowe* (LH/TBR), Kelvin Gutierrez (RH/KCR), Ty France (RH/SDP), Albert Pujols (RH/LAA)
There’s really only one man of intrigue here, and that’s Lowe (pronounced ‘low’ in contrast with teammate Brandon whose name is pronounced ‘lau’). Big Nate is a lefty-hitting 23-year-old with a sweet swing and strong plate patience in the minors (also crushed 27 homers there last season). He should stick in this lineup and worth your FAAB dough. How much though is dependent on your situation and who your current CI’s are. Less viable in 12-teamers where it’s totally possible teammate Ji-Man Choi has the better season whilst sitting in the free agent pool for half the season. Either way, he’s an upgrade over the likes of Candelario, Bour and Y. Alonso if you’re still holding on to them. If your CI’s happen to be log jammed in 15’s, you may still want to bid, because it takes just one injury to one of those guys for your squad to all of a sudden have a need for Lowe’s services in your starting lineup every week.
France may be sent down soon, so careful on the bid here. He is in the lineup almost every day but needs to start hitting. Gutierrez is a former Nats’ prospect with some pop and a part-time role for now, but he’s no more than a spot starting filler. Pujols listed because they play the Tigers and Orioles.
Middle Infielders – Howie Kendrick (RH/WAS), Ronny Rodriguez (RH/DET), Jose Iglesias (RH/CIN)
Kendrick is legit one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, and that won’t really subside because he has a decade’s worth of track record for it. So long as he’s getting playing time, he shouldn’t be sitting in the free agent pool. Ro-Rod has pop but honestly only works when we see a bevy of LHPs coming up. This week, he lines up for most likely just two of them, and they are decent ones (T. Skaggs, M. Perez). Iglesias has been a mainstay in that Reds’ lineup and is hitting .350 over the last two weeks, but he offers no pop whatsoever and what goes up usually must come down, so just be forewarned – no more than a few bucks as a conditional bid.
Outfielders – Bryan Reynolds (SW/PIT), Nicky Delmonico (LH/CHW), Melky Cabrera (SW/PIT), Steven Duggar (LH/SFG)
Not the sexiest group of options here. There is Pirates’ rookie Reynolds, who wasn’t an awful hitter in the minors and is hitting over .400 through his first couple weeks, but the Pirates have a tough schedule this week. Delmonico is someone I snagged in 50-round slow drafts in January and February. He just recently made his debut this season after spending a month on the IL and shocked the Red Sox last week with a 3-run game-winning bomb. He’s going to drain your average but can work for you if you need homers, and you see the White Sox have bad RHPs on the schedule. Melky can help with batting average, and that’s about it. Duggar isn’t someone we’d usually target, but they’re going to Coors.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
Catchers – James McCann (RH/CHW), Tyler Flowers (RH/ATL)
McCann’s clutch on MLB pitching will eventually subside, but you can ride the hot horse for now. He’s just not going to end up as a top-eight fantasy catcher. But there’s value with the facts of the position is a wasteland and he crushes lefties (and also gets to hit cleanup on occasion). He will get a taste of Bauer and Carrasco this week so it might be the time he begins to slide. The Braves will only get two lefties this week so it’s not the ideal week to use Flowers, but if you’re in need of a catcher, it’s certainly better than taking a zero.
Corner Infielders – Nate Lowe (LH/TBR), Brandon Belt (LH/SFG), Mitch Moreland (LH/BOS)
Lowe was already mentioned, and in 12-teamers, I don’t think it’s necessary to go triple-digits to get him. Belt is in Coors; Moreland gets five righties and plays a series in Camden.
Middle Infielders – Danny Santana (SW/TEX) – bench & stash, Garrett Hampson (RH/COL), Howie Kendrick (RH/WAS)
What is dead may never die. And so the journeyman Santana finds his third organization in a decade and is crushing right-handed pitching. Not to mention, five steals so far. A tough schedule this week (Verlander, Cole, McHugh) so if you own him, sit him. If you want some bags for the future, stash him. Speaking of what is dead may never die, Hampson could actually stick for a bit longer with Daniel Murphy not 100%. I do believe Hampson is about to get hot.
Outfielders – Raimel Tapia (LH/COL), Harrison Bader (RH/STL), Kole Calhoun (LH/LAA), Carlos Gonzalez (LH/CLE)
Tapia needs to be owned already, stop dicking around guys! Tyler O’Neill was sent to Triple-A so Bader should have fewer issues getting at-bats. Calhoun has been smashing the ball, but I’d still be careful using him this week. His opposing pitching matchups shifted a bit where now the Angels might see three left-handed pitchers. The Indians get seven games this week and possibly six righties on the schedule so CarGo is in play as well.
