Is the baseball juiced? Everyone thinks it is. There is data to support changes too, lots of talk about the drag on a baseball and all, but could there also be something else going on? Could something, other a change in the physical properties of the baseball, have something to do with the explosion of homers? After that discussion, Ray will break down those hitters who have, in the early going, hit a whole bunch of baseball on the screws by taking a look at the barrel percentage of batters. He will also touch on those fellas who just aren’t centering the ball on the sweet spot of the bat.
IS THE BALL JUICED?
We had a very interesting talk on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Thursday with Eno Sarris of the Athletic. We talked about the baseball, about batters, and about what is going on in MLB. Here are some of the highlights of that conversation (you can find it OnDemand – search for The Fantasy Drive).
1 – The baseball seems to be different. A report on BP suggested this nearly a month ago. However, it is FAR too simplistic to suggest that “the ball is juiced” and that’s the end of it.
2 – Eno’s analysis shows that the percentage of balls hit at a certain velocity are actually down from the homer record of 2017 in terms of their ability to leave the yard. If the ball is juiced as some think, why is that the case? Let’s compare the record setting 2017 season to this year.
Balls hit 103-104 mph in 2017 left the yard 20.9 percent of the time. This year, 18.6 percent.
Balls hit 105-106 mph in 2017 left the yards 22.1 percent of the time. This year, 18.6 percent.
If the ball is juiced, why are balls hit this hard leaving the yard less frequently than in 2017?
3 – The launch angle in MLB is up year on year. Here are the numbers the past few years: 2015 (10 percent), 2016 (11 percent), 2017 (12 percent), 2018 (12 percent) and 2019 (13 percent). Players seem to be consciously trying to lift the ball more. We know this to be true as well with all the talk relating to launch angle and swing changes players are making.
4 – A major reason that homers are up is that there are simply more hard-hit balls now than ever before. In 2017 there was a league wide 6.2 percent barrel rate. Last year that mark climbed to 6.7 percent. This year it’s all the way up to 8.0 percent (more on barrels in the next section of this article).
5 – In the 2000 season, the league walk rate was 9.6 percent. The mark has never been matched in the 21st century. However, the current seasons mark of 9.0 percent is the second highest (it was 8.5 percent in 2017, the seventh highest of the 21st century). So not only has the launch angle increased. Not only has the hard-hit rate increased. But players are about as patient as they have ever been as well.
6 – Eno pointed out an interesting tidbit. He spoke of the fact that hitters/teams have decided that it’s better to bring out your “A” swing three times in an at-bat versus doing it twice and then have a “defensive” swing just to put the ball in play. Analysis has determined that you’re better off letting her rip three times, with your best swing, versus doing the old tried-and-true approach of shortening up when behind in the count to put the ball in play. Players/teams want to do damage with their swing, not hit a week grounder to second base, so the defensive, put the ball in play “defensive swing” is losing out.
So, is the ball juiced? Maybe.
Are players approaching their at-bats differently than ever before? Yes.
Perhaps there’s more to it than simply suggesting that the ball is different.
BARREL DATA
Let’s look at all players with at least 30 batted ball events (BBE).
A barrel is defined as: a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.
Here are the men with the highest percentage of barrels per plate appearance.
| LAST | FIRST | barrels | Barrel/BBE | Barrel/PA % |
| Sanchez | Gary | 14 | 31.1 | 19.7 |
| Gallo | Joey | 17 | 31.5 | 15.0 |
| Rendon | Anthony | 12 | 20.3 | 14.0 |
| Moreland | Mitch | 15 | 19.7 | 13.9 |
| Reyes | Franmil | 13 | 18.3 | 13.0 |
| Abreu | Jose | 17 | 19.8 | 13.0 |
| Yelich | Christian | 16 | 19.3 | 12.9 |
| Voit | Luke | 17 | 21.0 | 12.7 |
| Dahl | David | 12 | 20.3 | 12.6 |
| Alonso | Pete | 16 | 21.3 | 12.5 |
| Ozuna | Marcell | 15 | 18.1 | 12.2 |
| Walker | Christian | 14 | 20.0 | 12.1 |
| Trout | Mike | 15 | 18.8 | 11.7 |
| Swanson | Dansby | 14 | 17.3 | 11.7 |
| Adams | Matt | 7 | 18.4 | 11.3 |
| Kendrick | Howie | 8 | 15.4 | 11.3 |
| Cruz | Nelson | 11 | 18.3 | 11.1 |
| Bellinger | Cody | 15 | 15.0 | 11.0 |
| Stewart | Christin | 7 | 17.5 | 10.9 |
| Mercer | Jordy | 6 | 15.8 | 10.9 |
| Meadows | Austin | 9 | 16.1 | 10.8 |
| Rosario | Eddie | 13 | 14.0 | 10.8 |
| Garcia | Avisail | 12 | 16.4 | 10.7 |
| Moustakas | Mike | 12 | 16.0 | 10.7 |
| Bruce | Jay | 11 | 18.6 | 10.7 |
| Duda | Lucas | 6 | 17.6 | 10.7 |
| Freeman | Freddie | 15 | 16.3 | 10.6 |
| Baez | Javier | 13 | 14.9 | 10.2 |
| Belt | Brandon | 12 | 16.9 | 10.2 |
| Judge | Aaron | 9 | 18.8 | 10.1 |
| Moncada | Yoan | 13 | 14.9 | 10.1 |
Gary Sanchez is frequently hurt, but man does he do damage when he hacks away. He has the best barrel rate in the game. He is fifth in baseball in exit velocity. He is 18th in percentage of hard-hit balls as well.
Joey Gallo isn’t just hitting the ball hard. He’s seemingly changed his approach a bit as well. His walk rate is up six percent from last season, and his launch angle is a career low, though it’s still plenty high at 20.0 percent. Gallo simply destroys the ball when he hits it, and if he can sustain his current launch angle, or lower it even a hair more, he could actually hit .250+ this season.
Anthony Rendon merely has to regain his health. He’s a really good hitter who was having a phenomenal start to his season. His exit velocity is up four mph from his career level, and his hard-hit ball rate of 64.4 percent is absurd (career 41.3).
Rarely does Mitch Moreland’s name get mentioned among the greats. He’s a platoon guy, as well as a less than ideal overall hitter, but he’s hitting the ball awfully hard right now. He’s never had a mark of higher than 12.0 percent in the barrel category, and his 93.5 mph exit velocity is also three mph over his mark from the last four seasons.
Franmil Reyes rates highly on the expected stats charts. Dude hits the ball hard (93.5 mph) and often (with a 47.9 percent hard-hit rate). A fantasy analysts darling.
Jose Abreu started slowly before seeing his production explode of late. The barrel rate is at 19.8 percent this season, after four years with a mark between 8.1 and 9.7 percent.
David Dahl is hurt frequently, but he’s been awfully effective when on the field. Worried about that 31.6 percent K-rate, and his 0.20 BB/K rate is basically half of average. There’s also the less than appealing 87.3 mph exit velocity as well. He hasn’t quite earned his current numbers.
Nelson Cruz is old, but he still pulls out the Boomstick frequently. Cruz has been an elite barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit ball guy every year from 2015 through today according to Baseball Savant. Every single year. He turns 39 in July, but nothing has seemingly changed as he’s aging remarkably well.
Here are the men with the lower percentage of barrels per plate appearance (minimum five barrels on the year).
| LAST | FIRST | barrels | Barrel/BBE | Barrel/PA % |
| Peralta | David | 5 | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| Seager | Corey | 5 | 6.0 | 3.8 |
| Brantley | Michael | 5 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Turner | Justin | 5 | 5.7 | 3.9 |
| Andrus | Elvis | 5 | 5.7 | 4.0 |
| Anderson | Brian | 5 | 5.9 | 4.0 |
| Beckham | Tim | 5 | 6.8 | 4.0 |
| Cain | Lorenzo | 6 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| Semien | Marcus | 6 | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| Muncy | Max | 5 | 7.7 | 4.4 |
| Kiermaier | Kevin | 5 | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| Hernandez | Teoscar | 5 | 7.1 | 4.5 |
| Profar | Jurickson | 5 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Anderson | Tim | 5 | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| Adames | Willy | 5 | 7.5 | 4.7 |
| Martin | Leonys | 6 | 8.5 | 4.8 |
| Heyward | Jason | 5 | 6.8 | 4.8 |
| Goodwin | Brian | 5 | 7.6 | 4.8 |
| Merrifield | Whit | 7 | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| Choo | Shin-Soo | 6 | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| O’Hearn | Ryan | 5 | 7.9 | 4.9 |
| Shaw | Travis | 6 | 9.0 | 5.0 |
| Rosario | Amed | 6 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| Posey | Buster | 5 | 6.5 | 5.0 |
| La Stella | Tommy | 5 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| McCutchen | Andrew | 7 | 8.8 | 5.1 |
| Santana | Carlos | 6 | 7.5 | 5.1 |
| Carpenter | Matt | 7 | 9.0 | 5.2 |
| Pujols | Albert | 6 | 6.8 | 5.2 |
| Soler | Jorge | 7 | 9.5 | 5.3 |
| Arcia | Orlando | 6 | 7.7 | 5.3 |
| Alonso | Yonder | 6 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
| Forsythe | Logan | 5 | 8.5 | 5.3 |
| Hosmer | Eric | 7 | 7.7 | 5.4 |
| Longoria | Evan | 6 | 7.1 | 5.4 |
| Winker | Jesse | 6 | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| Bogaerts | Xander | 7 | 8.3 | 5.5 |
| Grichuk | Randal | 7 | 8.5 | 5.5 |
| Escobar | Eduardo | 7 | 8.2 | 5.5 |
David Peralta has the worst mark in baseball, and that’s a surprise. His launch angle is up a bit, though his exit velocity is down 0.4 from his career. I wouldn’t worry too much about him, but I also wouldn’t expect him to hit .315 this season.
Corey Seager has struggled to find his game in return from injury. He is down about 1.6 mph on the exit velocity, and he’s down 2.3 percent on the barrel percentage this season from his career mark. He’s also hit a lot more balls into the air as his 16.8 percent launch angle is six percent above his career mark. He needs to lock in his swing, and that will start by lowering that launch angle in a substantial manner.
Michael Brantley has had a tremendous start for the Astros, despite his low finish here. We know who is he. There is really no reason to get overly concerned because of this barrel talk, especially since he has a 37.4 percent hard-hit rate, 0.8 above his career mark.
Justin Turner hasn’t been himself to date. His launch angle, and he is basically Mr. Launch Angle, is at 14.5 percent which is 3.8 percent below the mark he’s posted the last two seasons. His K-rate is up as well, but interestingly his hard-hit rate is a career best at 43.7 percent.
Lorenzo Cain is low on the list and that seems to make sense given that he’s hitting .269. Still, his expected batting average is .285. His exit velocity is two mph down from the last two seasons, so there is some reason for concern. Overall though, I wouldn’t be too concerned. After all, he is Lo Cain, and his current barrel percentage is, actually, a four year best.
Max Muncy is on pace for more plate appearances than last season, despite what I hear daily which is complaints about his usage. Muncy was unlikely to repeat the 47 percent hard hit rate from last season (he’s at 36.9), and his exit velocity is also down 1.3 mph from last season. Oh, the K-rate is up, and the BB-rate is down too.
Tim Anderson on a ‘not so great list’. How is that possible? His approach is hideous. His current walk rate of 1.8 percent is vomit inducing. Like, it’s impossible to be that awful. His exit velocity (88.0) and his hard-hit (37.6) are career bests, but neither number comes close to standing out.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
