Is Corey Kluber done for the year? Bumgarner has been better than many think. What the hell are the Rays doing in the 9th inning? Do they even know? DeSclafani has had a really nice start to his season. Not so much Fiers. Duffy is back on the hill, but does that matter? Lester just knows how to get outs. Meanwhile, Pivetta is dominating on the farm. Tanaka and McHugh have alternated strong efforts and beatdowns. Carlos Rodon is hurt, again. Is there any level of concern with Snell or Taillon, and is Caleb Smith for real?
Madison Bumgarner got 18 swing and misses Wednesday, his best total since September of 2016. All 18 of those swing and misses were on his fastball, the highest total of his career. The effort bumped his K/9 rate up to career levels at 8.86, and his current 11.1 percent swinging strike rate would be three years best. Pounding the strike zone, MadBum has a massive 72 percent first pitch strike rate leading him to an impressive 1.44 BB/9 rate (career 2.10). The grounders are down at 37 percent (career 44), but overall, he’s been pitching better than most are giving him credit for.
Diego Castillo picked up his fourth save Thursday. Meanwhile, Jose Alvarado has four saves and Emilio Pagan has three. For more on the new Nasty Boys, see the most recent Closer Chart.
It was simply too dark for the Battle of Winterfell. I’m not buying that crap that my TV wasn’t tuned properly either. It was. I know why it was filmed in the dark, it’s just easier to cover things that way, but fighting the White Walkers, shouldn’t the battle have been in the snow?
Anthony DeSclafani has a 3.48 ERA, 3.95 SIERA and 4.36 xFIP after six outings. He’s racked up an impressive 36 punchouts in 31 innings, but his 10.4 percent swinging K-rate is still below the league average so maintaining that pace seems highly unlikely. A punchout an inning? That’s possible. For more on this hurler see his Player Profile.
Danny Duffy allowed one run Thursday over six innings against the Rays. That’s four runs, four walks and seven strikeouts allowed over 11 innings in his two starts. Seems like at some point every year people get tempted to add Duffy. Don’t be that person. He’s consistently dealing with some physical malady, and he’s maddeningly inconsistent. #FightTheTemptation
Mike Fiers has allowed five runs his last two games, two decent outings. Still, he’s getting mashed by the long ball, something that has happened too frequently to him over the course of his career as he’s been taken deep seven times his last five outings. He’s only walked two guys over four outings, but that’s still not gonna work given all those homers allowed (a massive 1.79 per nine since the start of the 2017 season).
Largest teddy bear in the world.
Corey Kluber could be out until late in the second half with his broken ulna bone in his pitching arm. It’s also possible that his season could be over. For now, the Indians are expected to turn to Jefry Rodriguez or Cody Anderson, and both are expected to toe the rubber next week against the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel would seem like a great fit, though the Indians keep suggesting that he’s out of their price range. Signing him costs money AND a draft pick, and many teams are loathe to give up that pick. If he remains a free agent until the MLB Draft (June 3-5), signing him would no longer cost a draft pick and the teams would likely be lining up to add the lefty to their stable of hurlers.
Jon Lester isn’t what he once was, but the lefty still knows how to get outs. Through five outings he has a 1.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and more than a K-per-inning. He’s been fortunate with a .231 BABIP, especially when you consider the 89.2 mph exit velocity which would be a 5-year high, and a 36.8 percent hard-hit rate which would also be a five-year high. Solid is as solid does, but not returning to the days of yesteryear and dominance.
Collin McHugh has a .298 wOBA against lefties and a .302 mark against righties this season. There’s been little difference, in terms of the results, no matter whom he is facing. McHugh allowed five runs his first four outings, but it’s been disaster time of late as he’s allowed 17 runs his last three. Overall the ERA sits at 4.97, but that’s not truly indicative of how he’s performed. The 9.24 K/9 rate is strong, and the 2.61 BB/9 rate is spot on his rate the last two seasons. His ground ball rate is even up a bit, but he’s been mashed in the homer column. That should even out, at least somewhat, as his HR/FB ratio of 17.9 percent this season is higher than the combined rate of 17.1 percent he posted the last two seasons.
Nick Pivetta has appeared twice in the minors and over those 12 innings he’s walked six, which stinks, but he’s also punched out a whopping 23 batters. There’s talk that the Phils might call him back in a bullpen role.
Carlos Rodon had blister issues in his last start, but it’s a wonky elbow that is sending him to the DL. What? Have we just about had it with this fella? For years we’ve been hearing about the skills, and for years he’s been injured and underperforming when on the bump. Rodon started hot, but he’s allowed 11 runs his last 6.2 innings leaving him with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He threw a total of 190 innings the last two seasons and he’s never lived up to the hype, and he might need Tommy John surgery. By the way, the terrible Dylan Covey takes over the vacated rotation spot, and he’s nothing other than a desperation move in an AL-only league. The team has NO plans to call up hotshot prospect Dylan Cease.
Caleb Smith has been his best self through six outings. As noted in his Player Profile, Smith has a potentially dominant arm. Therefore, it’s not shocking to see 45 punchouts in 36 innings. The surprising part is nine walks leading to a 2.25 BB/9 rate. The resulting 5.00 K/BB is miles from the 2.67 mark he posted last season, and a HOF level number. It’s not sustainable. Neither is the .224 BABIP of the 90 percent left on baes rate. He currently has a 2.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. A great season from Smith would be a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. It’s a long season, so exercise caution here.
Blake Snell has made two starts since returning from his toe injury, and he’s been awful (10 R, 9 ER over 6.1 innings). I said it before he returned, that if I was the Rays, I would give him more time on the shelf just to be sure. “He just could never get it right, for whatever reason,” said Rays manager Kevin Cash. “Off-speed pitches weren’t coming easy for him to get in the zone… I think he’ll be fine. Get his pitch count back up. I mean, he kind of rushed that today. We wanted to spread it out over a couple more innings. It just didn’t work that way.” Far too early to panic of course, but with all the crap happening to arms, being cautious with the expectations in the short-term makes sense with the oft-dominant lefty.
Jameson Taillon has a 4.10 ERA in seven starts, and people are getting antsy. Keep the faith. Taillon has the same homer rate as always (he’s 0.03 of his career number of 0.93). His 1.13 WHIP is 0.05 lower than last season. His 3.75 K/BB ratio is only 0.14 off last season. His 1.84 GB/FB rate is nearly two tenths better than his career mark. The left on base percentage will improve, it’s laughably awful at 52 percent which is 20 percent below the league average and slightly more off his career number of 74.5 percent. He’s just fine. No panic at all.
Masahiro Tanaka allowed one run in 4-of-5 outings to start the season. He’s been a bit off the last two allowing three homers and nine runs (eight earned), but overall, he’s been pretty much… Tanaka. That said, the 1.31 WHIP he currently owns would be a career worst (1.13 last season and 1.11 for his career). Homers continue to be his bugaboo with a HR/9 mark of 1.38 (last year 1.44 and the year before 1.77). He’s solid, but homer prone.
What did you think of my take on how to handle dropped players?
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
