As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players who are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
While the offseason is supposed to be the “down” part of the year, the NFL has truly become a 24 hour, 365 day a year sport. Between off-field issues, trades, rap videos and free agency/draft selections, even as we hit May, there’s a lot of information to account for in the NFL. ADP was taken from April 1st to the 15th, so this information is fresh and represents some of the information that’s about to be written.
*puts on safari hat*
In a post-draft best ball world, there are many new adventures to explore. Between rookies filling up depth charts and potentially taking snaps as well as fantasy points from incumbents, along with other incumbents that had their roles survive, there’s a new world out there. Let’s review some of the biggest winners in the post-draft best ball player pool.
VALUES
JAMES CONNER (RB, STEELERS) — DRAFT ADP: 12.3, BESTBALL10s ADP: 10.6
Conner is technically a “winner,” but he wasn’t in as much danger as most RBs pre-draft. Personally, it felt right to limit exposure to Conner pre-draft just in case, but if you didn’t, then things worked out great. The Steelers have taken a liking to feature one RB in their offense over the last decade, and 2019 should be no different. But, before the draft, there were some concerns if the Steelers would at least address the position with depth behind RB Jaylen Samuels. The Steelers did select a RB, but it was in the fourth round. Benny Snell was a very productive college player (4,089 career yards from scrimmage) at Kentucky, but ultimately had lackluster athletic testing and slipped down draft boards. Conner was a higher selection initially (3rd), performed fantastic in 2018 and displayed an ability to handle featured touches. There are still concerns (relatively speaking) about Samuels forcing his way into a receiving role, but Conner’s role is officially safe enough to take him in the late first round of best ball drafts, at least from a projection standpoint.
RONALD JONES (RB, BUCCANEERS) — DRAFT ADP: 111.7, BESTBALL10s ADP: 141.5
Jones was left for dead after what was an incredibly disappointing rookie season. Not only did Jones get beat out by undrafted free agent RB Peyton Barber, he barely played at all in 9 games. When he did, he was awful, gaining 44 rushing yards on 23 rushing attempts (1.9 yards per attempt). Jones also suffered through multiple injuries, and basically had everything that could possibly go wrong happen. Despite all that, Jones was a really solid college prospect out of USC and was selected in round two of the NFL draft in 2018. Despite many calling for it, the Buccaneers completely ignored RB in the 2019 NFL draft and opened a huge door for Jones to redeem himself in his second season. While there aren’t many (any) positives to take away from 2018, draft position and his college profile are enough to invest at Jones’ current price. Buccaneers GM Jason Licht recently came out with a vote of confidence for Jones, and that was echoed by head coach Bruce Arians. All signs point towards increased opportunity in year two.
MECOLE HARDMAN (WR, CHIEFS) — DRAFT ADP: 178.5, BESTBALL10s ADP: 133.8
It’s hard to argue anyone but Hardman was the biggest winner of the 2019 NFL draft. Not only was Hardman selected a few rounds higher than expected (round two), but he went to an offense with QB Patrick Mahomes. Hardman has electric speed, and while he’s certainly not the same athlete as WR Tyreek Hill, he’s built in a similar mold. The Chiefs are clearly worried about the Hill off-field situation (as they should be), and if that becomes a huge issue, there will be a lot of high equity fantasy targets up for grabs in the offense. WR Sammy Watkins and TE Travis Kelce will absorb some of that production, but other players are going to need to emerge throughout the season in order for the Chiefs to sustain their prolific offensive production. Hardman could get thrown into the fire before he’s truly ready, but some turbulence early on could clear the path for a scenario where Hardman catches on in the second half and flourishes. It’s hard to debate the upside in the Kansas City Chiefs offense at this stage, and with the usage of a second-round selection, head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs organization clearly have big plans.
KYLER MURRAY (QB, CARDINALS) — DRAFT ADP: 119.2, BESTBALL10s ADP: 145.1
There are many differing views on how Murray will do as a starting QB in the NFL, and there’s certainly a wide range of outcomes from a real football standpoint. However, from a fantasy point of view, he’s an incredibly safe prospect, especially when considering the offensive system he’ll be entering. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has a lot of questions to answer as an NFL head coach, but one thing that isn’t up for debate is that his teams are going to throw the ball. A lot. Murray and Kingsbury are both coming from college offenses that were high-octane, pass-first and pass-always offenses. The Cardinals drafted WR Christian Kirk in the second round of 2018 and added WR Andy Isabella in second round this year. They still have veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald and drafted high upside weapon WR Hakeem Butler in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. RB David Johnson has displayed immense ability as a receiving option and could be a player that can help Murray thrive. The offensive line is still a mess, but for fantasy purposes, Murray’s ability to use his feet and athleticism to escape pressure and run will be a huge asset. In the same way Bills QB Josh Allen was a huge fantasy factor in the second half of 2018, Murray could thrive as a rookie, and his upside is relatively unlimited.
