The Rankings have been updated! Find a link inside to access the May 1st update that includes more than 600 players ranked for the rest of the 2019 season. Nick Senzel is apparently on the precipice of being called up by the Reds. Will Casey Mize of the Tigers be far behind? What’s wrong with Mallex Smith and will his demotion to the minors be a lengthy one? A.J. Pollock has an elbow issue which should open the floodgates for full-time playing time for Alex Verdugo. Noah Syndergaard has lost some luster and some heat on some of his pitches. Finally, Ray asked which players had been dropped in your fantasy leagues this season, and you will be shocked by some of the names that folks apparently gave up on after a week or two.
THE RANKINGS HAVE BEEN UPDATED!
It’s May 1st, so it’s time for the rankings to be updated as they will be the first of every month the rest of the regular season. For the new rankings list, click on THIS LINK.
SENZEL GETTING AWFULLY CLOSE
Nick Senzel is one of my absolute favorite players. If not for health woes, he would have established himself as a big leaguer last year. Alas, he dealt with injury last season (head/vertigo, elbow/surgery needed, finger/surgery needed) and then started out this season hurt as well (this time it’s an ankle sprain). It’s been reported that it’s possible he is promoted to the Reds on Friday.
Senzel extended his hitting streak to 18-games Wednesday night (all seven games this season) as he’s put together a .290/.333/419 slash line in the early going. In 51 games at Triple-A he’s gone .307/.372/.495 with seven homers and eight steals. It appears that he will be called up to play the outfield, he’s been in center field all seven games this season, though he can also play second, shortstop and third base. If he is indeed slated for the outfield, one would assume the Reds plan would be Jesse Winker in left, Senzel in center and Yasiel Puig in right. That would leave Scott Schebler and Matt Kemp fighting for scraps or hoping for an injury.
Senzel should be added immediately, because if you wait for the call-up to occur, the price will skyrocket. I love his makeup and his overall game (he’s my favorite player in the minors right now). It would not surprise me in the least if he made an immediate impact on the fantasy game with his maturity and drive. My only true question at this point is – can he stay on the field?
MIZE IS MASTERFUL
Casey Mize was the top pick in the draft last season by the Tigers. After dominating Single-A, he threw a no-hitter in his first outing at Double-A. Obviously he will be pitching for the Tigers soon. Well… maybe not. It’s not about the stuff which is flippin’ top notch, it’s about workload. The article suggests a potential September callup, but it also notes, quite correctly, that there just aren’t that many miles on Mize’s arm at the moment. Mize threw a mere 13.2 big league innings last season after the draft, so you have to think that he will be on a pretty strict pitch/inning count this season which might even preclude him from still being on the mound come September. There’s also little reason for the Tigers to start Mize’s arbitration clock when they could merely wait until mid-April next year when he will be just 22 years of age (he turns 22 today). Bottom line, outsider of keeper leagues and AL-only setups, there is no real reason to be stashing Mize.
MALLEX SMITH SENT TO MINORS
Last season, Mallex Smith hit .296 with 40 steals. He and Whit Merrifield were the only players in baseball to reach both marks. He started horribly this season however (.502 OPS), and as a result he’s been sent to the minors to find his lost game (the club has called up Braden Bishop to take his roster spot). Said manager Scott Servais. “This is something we’ve done with other players. We sent Mike Zunino back, we sent James Paxton down at one point. You’re just trying to get the player down there and let him restart or reboot his season.”
So, what’s gone wrong?
First off, Smith missed a lot of time early in game with a strained elbow (remember he didn’t play that first series in Japan). That issue has seemingly led to some unwanted swing changes. Mallex has a 10.0 walk-rate, 1.2 percent above his career mark, but the strikeout rate has exploded to 30.0 percent, 9.1 percent above his career mark. The fact is that he’s being beaten by the fastball. After hitting .319 with an expected average of .283 last season on the heater, the marks this season are .213 and .201. Further, his Whiff percentage is up from 24 percent last season to 30 percent this season. “We’re trying to incorporate his lower half into his swing,” Servais said. “It’s almost like he’s swinging flat-footed and he just looks so disconnected. To Mallex’s point, he said he’s never missed that many fastballs before. When players make those kind of comments, they know something isn’t quite right.”
Still, there is some wonk to his results to date. Mallex has hit .165 this season as his BABIP, over .350 the last two seasons, is currently sitting at .234. With his massive speed component, that sluggish BABIP is very surprising. That statement is further buttressed by the fact that his exit velocity is up 1.2 mph. His barrel rate is exactly the same as last season, and 2017 for that matter. His hard-hit rate is way down, 7.6 percent from last season, but as you can tell from the numbers listed in the last sentence, it’s likely a small sample size issue.
By the way, Bishop doesn’t rate much interest in mixed leagues, and if Smith is hitting .350 in two weeks, he’s very likely to be called back up. I would try to hold Smith if at all possible. Speed like his, legit stole base speed, is extremely hard to find.
POLLOCK TO DL AGAIN – VERDUGO TIME?
A.J. Pollock has been sent to the DL, yet again, this time with an elbow issue (the team recalled Matt Beaty). It’s unclear, as of this writing, how much time he will miss, but there is some serious concerns about an infection in his elbow. The report in the L.A. Times speculates that a worst-case scenario could cost him six weeks or more (this is the same issue he’s had work done on before).
However long he is sidelined, the beneficiary would appear to be the hot hitting Alex Verdugo. Over the course of 72 plate appearances, the young lefty swinger has been a swinging with a .333/.361/.623 slash line, four homers and a .409 wOBA. He doesn’t have much more than 20 homer power, but he has a legit hit tool and could push for a .290+ batting average. It’s also early in his career, but he’s actually posted a better OPS against lefties (.845) than righties (.785) suggesting that he should be in the lineup daily, regardless of the opponent on the hill. Think Yuli Gurriel type of offensive output.
*NOTE: Pollock will have surgery and manager Dave Roberts said that he believes Pollock will return in 2019. It could be a long while before he’s back on the field. Verdugo is a must add if you’re seeing his name on waivers.
NOAH SYNDERGAARD
The mighty righty of the Mets, Noah Syndergaard has a 97.6 mph fastball going on average this season, a direct match for his career number. However, his slider is at 88.7 mph with is more than three mph lower than it has been the last two years. Additionally, his curveball is down 1.6 mph while his change is 0.4 mph harder. What’s going on with the big righty? He just seems out of sorts. The ground ball rate is there at 51 percent, the BABIP is stupid at .376 (though his career mark of .318 shows he must be missing his spots consistently), but you can also note the loss of velocity, the fact that his SIERA is a career high (3.63) and the fact that so is his xFIP (3.55). There’s zero reason to panic with Noah, he really doesn’t deserve his raw ERA, but the fact is that he’s just not producing the results that his prodigious talent dictates that he should, and frankly, he really hasn’t for a good deal of his career (he’s admitted to not having a feel for his pitches). His stuff is great, but there is a missing component here.
WHO HAS BEEN DROPPED?
On Twitter Tuesday, I asked a simple question: Who is the best player someone has just flat out dropped in your fantasy league? The list of names in the response column is truly astounding. You can click on the link to see all the responses, but here are a bunch that stood out to me as folks simply fail to exhibit and level of patience with players. Truly folks, the list of players that have been cast aside, in APRIL, is astonishing. It really makes you wonder why more folks don’t subscribe to Fantasy Guru, though the good news is that there are plenty of people out there that don’t, so feel free to pillage the less informed.
Jose Abreu
Jesus Aguilar
Tim Anderson
Harrison Bader
Charlie Blackmon
Lorenzo Cain
Robinson Cano
Carlos Carrasco
Nicholas Castellanos
Willson Contreras
Nelson Cruz
Yandy Diaz
Josh Donaldson
Jack Flaherty
D.J. LeMahieu
Starling Marte
Daniel Murphy
Jose Quintana
Chris Paddack
Blake Parker
Buster Posey
Yasiel Puig
J.T. Realmuto
Eddie Rosario
Gary Sanchez
Domingo Santana
Corey Seager
Jameson Taillon
Justin Turner
Joey Votto
Zack Wheeler
Jesse Winker
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
