NOTE: Some talk about Schebler below. This was written before Nick Senzel was going to be called up. Clearly this affects Schebler’s playing time drastically.
An absolutely bonkers first month filled with the usual, annual surprises. Homers are being hit at record paces, aces are getting thrashed in a fashion that appears more frequent than usual and we’ve had IL stints galore.
Cody Bellinger getting off to a terrific start is far from surprising, but the fact that he’s had a record month for a hitter surely is. He set a pre-May record for runs batted in with 37 and is the only qualified batter hitting over .400. Clearly Bellinger isn’t going to get what he’s on pace for (222) and break Hack Wilson’s 87-year record of 191, but with his revamped approach at the plate – including an impressive 11.7% strikeout rate – Bellinger may very well be in the conversation for NL MVP this season. He leads the league in homers as well (14) and it’d be fair to project a 40-120-.300 season at this point, given his current pace and abilities. Just stay healthy, my friend.
Tim Anderson has gone from boring mid-rounder to a legit threat in the lineup almost every day. The 25-year-old shortstop is hitting .375 and leading the league in stolen bases with 10. His splits against righties (.302 ISO) and lefties (.121 ISO) is staggering and the current two percent walk rate is a career low thus far. His average is fueled by a .435 BABIP and will drop, but 30-plus stolen bases with 15 to 20 homers is certainly in the cards. Nevertheless, he’s a ‘sell-high’ for me.
Among the other April surprises: Trey Mancini (.355 AVG, .405 OBP, 26 R), Hunter Dozier (.349 AVG, .447 OBP, 7 HR) and to a lesser extent, Joc Pederson (10 HR but with a .239 AVG – typical Joc), Yoan Moncada (hitting for average this year), Jason Heyward, David Fletcher, Brian Goodwin, Jeff McNeil and Alex Gordon. Omar Narvaez has parlayed his mini-breakout in 2018 into currently being one of the best-hitting catchers in the game. From this group, Moncada and Dozier are the guys I’m mostly bullish on to continue having success. Moncada ranks fourth in MLB in average exit velocity (95 mph) behind Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge and Nelson Cruz while Dozier ranks 15th (93.6 mph). Franmil Reyes knocked a couple out of the park on Tuesday and ranks sixth behind another surprising breakout, Christian Walker. Both of these guys are of a promising pedigree and should provide fantasy value all season long hitting in prime slots within their respective lineups. As far as power is concerned, both rookie Pete Alonso and Yankees’ first baseman Luke Voit have been crushing it, and both should be able to hit 35 homers or more so long as they stay healthy.
Some interesting year-to-date notes and statistical leaders:
- Mike Trout leads the league in walk percentage by a wide margin. He’s over 24 percent while Bryce Harper and Alex Bregman are the only other hitters in the league over 18 percent. One guy among the top 20 in walk percentage is a guy I’m expecting to heat up soon and that’s Reds’ slugger Scott Schebler. He’s hitting a paltry .135 with a .174 BABIP and has hit just two homers this season. He usually only plays against right-handed starting pitchers and the Reds will see a gaggle of them coming up.
- One guy I’d expect to slow down a little eventually is diminutive Rays’ second baseman Brandon Lowe. He’s hitting a shade below .300 but the .385 BABIP and 33% k rate (ninth highest) makes me wonder how long before he hits his first slump. So far, these Rays have been pure fantasy gold and it’s likely many of the teams atop the leaderboards in overall contests and in first place in leagues have either a Lowe, Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows or a Yandy Diaz. Lowe and some of these other guys will hit slumps undoubtedly, but there’s just something magical about this roster and team chemistry. Management looks like true geniuses with the way they’ve transformed the likes of Yandy and Tyler Glasnow. Adding top prospect Nate Lowe will only make things on harder on opposing pitchers going forward.
- Speaking of the Diamondbacks’ Walker, there’s currently no one in baseball hitting the ball harder (68.7%). He is trailed by Gallo (65.3%), the recently injured Josh Donaldson (56.9%), NL MVP Christian Yelich (56.6%), Pham (56%), Yasmani Grandal (55.9%) and Bellinger (53.7%). Against left-handed pitching, it’s the rejuvenated Carlos Santana leading all hitters with a 70% hard hit rate, followed by Javier Baez, Grandal and shockingly, Starlin Castro (62.5%, tied with Pete Alonso). Walker comes in sixth against lefties and tied for first against RHP with Gallo at 74.4%. One surprising name among the leaders against right-handed pitchers is Miguel Cabrera (10that 54.2%) though it shouldn’t be all that surprising considering he’s arguably the best hitter of the past decade. Miggy recently hit his first homer of the year, and I’m more than certain there’s another 18 to 20 where those came from.
In addition to those like Schebler and Cabrera who have been quiet in the power department, there are a few other guys worth buying low on. One of them is the Dodgers’ Justin Turner who finally hit his first homer of the season against the Giants on Tuesday. Turner has seen a huge drop in his flyball rate (down from 44.4% last season to 32.5% this season) corresponding with a near 15% increase in his groundball rate (29% to 44%). It’s very likely Turner acknowledges this and will adjust to the guy who averages 20 HRs per 500 PA over the last few seasons. The only hope is that the oft-injured one stays healthy off the IL.
One other guy who has been completely devoid of power so far is 22-year-old Rafael Devers. Devers did hit 21 dingers in 490 PA last season but is still looking for his first one of 2019. He has never really hit the ball that hard to begin with as his current 33.8% hard-hit rate isn’t far off from his career rate of 34.4%. On the bright side, he’s already stolen four bases after stealing five all of last season. And he’s hitting right around .300. Devers will get some balls over the yard and get his 20, I’m sure. So far, his flyball rate (20%) is nearly half of last year’s mark (38.6%) so keep an eye on any adjustments he might make at the plate. Perhaps he doesn’t and just hits for less power and more average this year. One thing’s for sure is his 55.7% groundball rate will regress closer to his career average of 48%.
Last but not least, I point you to my tweet about May scheduling the other day where I note what a bananas setup the Rockies have this month. 17 of their 27 games will come in the hitter-friendly confines of their home park and they visit some nice road parks for hitters as well (Miller Park – Milwaukee, Fenway Park – Boston, Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia). Similarly, the Yankees have a nice schedule in May as well as they’ll face the Orioles seven times and play a series with the Royals.
I leave you this week with some hitters I project to have a smashing month of May. Perhaps some of these guys are potential buy-low candidates for you in trade leagues or are guys you’ll be happy to see produce in your lineups.
Red Sox: J.D. Martinez (power), Mookie Betts
Mets: Wilson Ramos, Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario (stolen bases)
Dodgers: Corey Seager, Justin Turner (power), Alex Verdugo
Blue Jays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.,Teoscar Hernandez
Reds: Scott Schebler (power),Yasiel Puig (overall production)
Tigers: Nick Castellanos (average), Jeimer Candelario
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter (power), Tyler O’Neill (yes, it’s coming)
Pirates: Jung Ho Kang
White Sox: Yonder Alonso
Royals: Ryan O’Hearn (power and spurts of average)
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant (both: overall production)
A few guys I’d expect to take a step back after superb Aprils:
Tim Anderson, Leury Garcia, Brandon Lowe, Shin Soo Choo, Paul DeJong, Peter Alonso (average), Cody Bellinger (it’s inevitable after the record month), Domingo Santana (it’s already started), Freddy Galvis (average), Christian Walker(also, inevitable – worried about this entire Dbacks’ lineup this month), Hunter Dozier (should end up okay, but reality catches up to him as he regresses in May)
