It’s time for a mock draft! AGAIN. Now that the draft is done, and there’s a significant amount of context added to these prospects entering the NFL, dynasty rookie draft season is upon us. There’s a significant amount of variance to every rookie class, and it’s important to recognize how different each rookie draft will be, but setting a base of personal evaluation is important. There’s some rookie draft data out there, and there’s a lot of ideas where players will go, but ultimately, each draft will be unique.
The 2019 draft is different than any of the last decade. This isn’t hyperbole. In all my years evaluating rookies for the NFL draft and dynasty leagues, there’s never been this much adherence to a class. Most, if not close to all analysts and players alike, are fading this class in a significant fashion, and there’s very little difference of opinion in the public. In the public perception, this class lacks the top-end talents like Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones, and therefore, is the worst rookie class EVER.
This is a below average class, there’s no denying that. But, as the resident centrist of the fantasy industry (self-proclaimed, but maybe true?), It’s time for some context! 2019 had the third highest combination of top three rounds QB/RB/WR/TE’s in the decade (since 2010), with 33.
Let’s first take a moment to recognize the abomination that was 2016. 22?? How? What? 2013, you’re pretty pathetic yourself. Either way, the point here is over the next couple of months, there’s going to be a lot of talk about how terrible this rookie class is. My advice? Completely ignore it. This rookie class is one of the more difficult to evaluate over the last decade, and the studs aren’t obvious to find, but that, by no means, indicates it will be bad from a fantasy perspective. A lot of focus gets thrown onto year one expectations, and a lot of classes get the thumbs up or down based on how they perform in their initial seasons. That’s blasphemy. Generally speaking, players prime in years three through six of their NFL careers, and the strength of a rookie class shouldn’t be evaluated until it’s three-to-five years out. Considering that’s a long time, it’s pretty unreasonable to expect anyone to hold off on having opinions for that long, but the full scope of this class won’t be fully formed until players are on their second contracts.
Rant over.
Let’s get into the 2019 class, and what it looks like. To reiterate, this mock draft is based on my personal values, not how the public views things. I went through each selection, crossed players off as I went, and this is the result of that. There will likely be similarities to consensus or the public in here, but also some wide divergences.
ROUND ONE
Not much has changed here from pre-draft. Oakland RB Josh Jacobs asserted himself as the top rookie RB with his landing spot and being selected in round one. Jacobs should be in line for some huge volume over the next couple of seasons (at the very least) and put together an interesting enough college profile to believe he can thrive as a fantasy contributor. Titans WR AJ Brown was a clear top two asset before the draft, but his landing spot could certainly cause turbulence early on in his career. Titans QB Marcus Mariota has never been able to stay healthy, and if Tennessee has to suffer through another injury-filled year with him at the helm, year one could be ugly for Brown. Despite that, and despite the slight disappointment in him going in the second round as opposed to the first, Brown is still a fantastic WR prospect and should be able to thrive (at some point) with whatever his situation is. Colts WR Parris Campbell arguably landed in the best spot for a WR in the draft, getting matched up with QB Andrew Luck. Campbell is a special, special athlete who thrived close to the line of scrimmage at Ohio State and will likely be asked to perform similar activities in the Colts offense. Colts WR T.Y. Hilton is 30 years old, and while he’s an incredibly special player, looking ahead a few seasons and determining there’s a good chance his play regresses significantly is fair. Hilton is still a star, and receiving weapons Devin Funchess and Eric Ebron could limit fantasy upside in year one, but connecting a special athlete to a QB of Luck’s caliber could be a special combination for years to come. Eagles RB Miles Sanders landed in an amazing spot for his career, even though it may be tough to be a high-end fantasy asset in his rookie season. The hype is warranted. Lions TE T.J. Hockenson and Broncos TE Noah Fant both landed in fantastic spots for future fantasy production, and while it’s tough to count on TEs to help produce early on in their careers, both players should be playing starter snaps from the get-go.
ROUND TWO
This round breathes a lot of life into the value of rookie picks this year. There’s a fantastic amount of depth in this class from a WR and TE perspective, and this is a great round to strike. There’s also a significant amount of indecision on the running backs, which could lead them to fall much further than they should. Patriots RB Damien Harris’ value has gotten tamped down quite a bit by his landing spot, and maybe I’m in the minority, but I LOVE that fit. Yes, Sony Michel is there, but there’s always a significant amount of touches to go around in that backfield, and there’s no reason to think Harris can’t make a big impact if he can stay on the field and consistently make positive plays. Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman wasn’t a player who was expected to go high in the NFL draft but did (round two). Considering that, his value should already be shooting up. Add in the fact he’ll be catching passes from QB Patrick Mahomes? Yeah, he’s a worthy gamble. While it would be tough to reach into the first round for a player like Hardman, he’s aligned the three factors that make a successful NFL WR: draft position, athleticism and great landing spot. It remains to be seen what happens with teammate Tyreek Hill, but Hardman is worth a lot either way. It is SuperFlex, but it’s tough to take a risk on a profile like Giants QB Daniel Jones. He’s a very interesting prospect from a draft position perspective, but overall, he’s not exciting. Regardless, there’s a certain point where the odds begin to make sense, and that range for me is around the middle of the second round. Despite slipping to the fourth round, Cardinals WR Hakeem Butler makes an intriguing case for outlier status with his astounding wingspan, athleticism and optimistic landing spot. Butler will likely be long gone before 2.10, but he’s a worthy gamble if he does land in this range.
ROUND Three and four
The top of Round Three is going to have a lot of value in it and would be a range to target. Multiple round-three RBs, WRs and TEs will still be on the board in this range, and the likelihood is solid one or two of them become prominent fantasy producers. Redskins WR Terry McLaurin landed in a very intriguing landing spot with his college QB Dwayne Haskins. McLaurin is incredibly athletic and played on a team with one of the most talent-packed WR depth charts of the decade in his time at Ohio State. There’s a chance he has untapped potential as a field stretcher. Texans TE Kahale Warring was drafted in round three, a year after the Texans selected TE Jordan Akins in the same round. Could this mean the end for Akins after only one season? It’s worth contemplating. If Warring can emerge in that depth chart, QB Deshaun Watson presents a very intriguing match for an underneath receiving weapon. Ravens RB Justice Hill is one of the few round 4+ players that make sense in the top three rounds of rookie drafts. Ravens RB Mark Ingram is entering his age 30 season, and the Ravens will very likely have a run-heavy system with Lamar Jackson as the starting QB. Hill presents a very intriguing size-speed combination that could land him significant touches in a hurry. Panthers QB Will Grier is very low in the fourth round, and that’s simply because it’s hard to envision playing time for him in at least the first three seasons of his career. Can he develop and eventually garner a trade to start for another team? Sure. But ultimately, Cam Newton is in town, and even with injuries, Grier will not be able to wrangle a starting gig as long as he’s in Carolina. Redskins WR Kelvin Harmon, Redskins RB Bryce Love and Giants WR Darius Slayton are all intriguing fourth-round draft picks. It’s very unlikely Harmon will last this long, but Slayton and Love have a chance to be major values.
