SUNDAY UPDATE:
Everybody is probably trying to figure out saves and save opps. When bidding, just don’t forget one thing: it’s only late April and these carousels will continue to turn on so many teams. Many teams are wisely using their best relivers as ace situational guys (ARI – Bradley, TB – Alvarado, LAA – Buttrey) so it’s unlikely that any of them become full-time closers. There are some happenings this weekend, so let’s go over them:
* ATL – Luke Jackson – He likely climbs to the top of all bid lists. I don’t believe he’s the answer nor will be the closer for the rest of the season but might be the guy for now until this team either signs Kimbrel (doubtful, but possible) or they fix Minter. If he goes for over $100 in NFBC, let him go to the desperate ones. My one issue with Jackson has always been his walk rate. A high one is never a good thing for a closer.
* LAA – Hansel Robles – Buttrey handled the 8th and Robles the 9th, though it wasn’t a save opp. He’s got some magic behind him with those white shoes, Undertaker walk-out song and that darling first name. Think he’ll handle the role for now for the most part, but for how long? He’s been around for a while and has never flashed as much skill as he has this season. He’s throwing just about as hard (96mph FB) as he always has. Now watch Buttrey grab three saves this week after everyone dropped him 😉
* TB – Emilio Pagan/Diego Castillo – Oh, Emilio, I remember you well. I walked into a FanDuel live finals seat two years ago on an 11th-inning walk-off that he gave up to Odor so he’ll always have a special place in my heart. Nevertheless, Pagan pitched the 7th after getting a couple saves earlier in the week and it was Castillo with the save. This is a situation that will continue to be messy. You can bid here, just do so reasonably.
* TEX – Shawn Kelley – LeClerc has been an absolute mess but he did sign a longterm contract and I do believe he has a leash. If not, I believe Kelley is the next man in. Just probably not worth the stash unless your team doesn’t have injury stashes.
* BAL – Mychal Givens – Finally got his first save of the season but really doesn’t fit the profile of a true closer. You’re more likely to get occasional ratio damage than you are saves given the fact that this team isn’t going to win many games. If you’re desperate though, gotta bid.
* MIA – Sergio Romo – A shell of his former self when he was a dominant late-inning guy in San Francisco. You’ll see others pop in to grab saves here and there (Steckenrider, Conley, Anderson), and they won’t be winning many games, but worth bidding on for the save opps. I’d probably bid on him ahead of most of the guys on this list.
Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one and two dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
TWO-START PITCHERS
Though it’s a week with 11 of the 30 teams playing just five games, we have plenty of two-step pitchers to utilize. Without question, you’re starting the following guys (subject to weather or manager changes):
Trevor Bauer, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, Luis Castillo, Patrick Corbin, Jameson Taillon, Chris Paddack, Zack Wheeler, Kenta Maeda, Mike Soroka, Eduardo Rodriguez
Less than top-notch SP you’re probably starting because they go twice:
Tanner Roark, Jhoulys Chacin, Julio Teheran, Jeff Samardzija, Brad Keller, Jakob Junis, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Frankie Montas, Spencer Turnbull – from this group, the only guys under 70% owned in 12-team NFBC OC’s are Turnbull (42%) and Junis (46%) so they’re worth bids.
Two-steps you may want to think twice about and dig into because of matchup:
- Kyle Freeland, COL (@ MLW, v ARI)
- Nick Margevicius, SD (@ ATL, v LAD)
- Anibal Sanchez, WAS (v STL, @ PHI)
- Michael Wacha & Adam Wainwright, STL (@ WAS, @ CHC)
15-team streamers (ownership listed for 15-team NFBC Main Event)
- John Means LH/BAL – 5% (@ CWS, v TBR)
- Clay Buchholz RH/TOR – 73% (@ LAA, @ TEX)
- Manny Banuelos LH/CHW – 12% (v BAL, v BOS)
Means is the guy most likely to command the biggest bids amongst starting pitchers this week after a fantastic run of three starts after some work in middle relief. Through 20.2 innings, Means
boasts a 1.74 ERA (despite a 4.16 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, 26.7% K and 7% BB. One of those starts was two weeks ago against a cold Red Sox offense (5 IP – 4 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 3 K) and the latest was a gem against the White Sox (5 IP – 4 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K). In a rotation so devoid of talent, the southpaw might be their most talented, by default. And the two starts this week make him worth bidding on (though vs TBR is always daunting but e previously held his own against them through two scoreless innings last week). Worth a bid no more than 10% of your 15-team budget, just don’t be fooled by the locks that he got…he’s still an Orioles pitcher from the block. Simply stated, there are many corrections to come in that ERA and it may come as soon as this week. Means mostly works off a 92 mph fastball and a changeup, as he still aims to rely more on his curveball and slider.
Banuelos is another guy we want to make sure gets two starts this week – and one of them is against the Red Sox – but the lefty looked sharp throwing four scoreless against the Orioles earlier in the week. Just a small bid on him because these two starts could be explosive. Buchholz does very little to whet my whistle, and that start later next week against tough Rangers’ lefty bats scares me. I’d start him in 15’s if I owned him, but if you’re not planning to, then he’s an easy drop. The other guy who is easily available in 15’s is Jason Vargas, but I’d very much fear the two starts against the Reds at home and at Milwaukee.
Angels big-time prospect Griffin Canning will be making his MLB debut, starting on Tuesday. He’s not available in NFBC leagues yet so will likely see massive bids in 15-teamers next weekend depending on how his two starts go next week. In deeper home leagues, you definitely want to give this kid a stab. He does not project to be a true ace but will be a certifiable workhorse with a deep arsenal and decent control – very polished for a minor leaguer.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: BRAVES, NATIONALS, REDS, BREWERS, CARDINALS, ROCKIES, PADRES, RED SOX, RAYS, WHITE SOX, ROYALS, TWINS
Teams with 5 games: MARLINS, PHILLIES, CUBS, PIRATES, DBACKS, YANKEES, INDIANS, TIGERS, ANGELS, MARINERS, RANGERS
The least amount of six-game weeks we’ve seen all season with 23 of the 30 teams playing either five or seven games. The Angels and Astros play a two-game series next weekend in Monterrey, Mexico.
THE GOOD
- As if you needed a reason to play your Rays. They get seven road games against the Royals and Orioles. The Orioles have, hands-down, the league’s worst staff (starters and bullpen combined for an ERA over 6.00) and the Royals don’t trail far behind with a combined ERA over 5.00
- Fantastic setup for the Mets left-handed bats like Cano and Conforto with seven righties on tap between Cincy and Milwaukee (at Miller Park). You’ll want to play Jeff McNeil this week along with Brandon Nimmo, who should break out sooner than later.
- We’re almost always playing our Rockies and this week’s schedule is pretty sweet with seven games – four @ MLW and three at home against the Dbacks.
THE BAD
- Tough sledding for the Mariners who face some A and B starting pitchers facing the Cubs and Indians. It may mean benching some of your fringe guys like Daniel Vogelbach and Tim Beckham.
- Six games for the Dodgers but not the ideal ballparks (Petco and AT&T) to face the Padres and Giants where they are likely to face four lefties. Not great news for Corey Seager who is ramping back up to full speed and Joc Pederson who typically sits against lefties. Likely means we only see Alex Verdugo for three, or maybe four games (he hits lefties better than Joc – he hits everyone!).
- Not that you really have Marlins to start anyways, but it’s a bad week for their offense in general with two games against Cleveland where they line up for Bauer/Kluber and three games against right-handed Braves.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – James McCann (RH/CHW), Kevan Smith (LH/LAA), Greyson Grenier (RH/DET)
McCann can be owned in 15’s because he’s getting the opportunity to hit cleanup for this wretched offense when a lefty is on the mound. Much of that was because Eloy Jimenez was out though. He’s an AVG-suck against righties though. Smith and Jonathan Lucroy have both been in lineups at the same time with one at DH which is a testament to how weak this offense is. The thing about Smith is that you must roster and play him when you see at least three lefties coming up in a given week – he’s hitting over .400 against them since the beginning of last season. Whatever power surge you’ve been seeing out Grenier, be careful and don’t buy into it. I could be wrong but he feels like the ultimate buy-high.
Corner Infielders – Colin Moran (LH/PIT), Gio Urshela (RH/NYY), Tyler White (RH/HOU), Ildemaro Vargas (SW/ARI)
Moran we can use when we see a ton of righties in the lineup and that’s the case this week – only needed in a pinch. Urshella hit .300 last week and has been holding it down for Andujar at third base, but he’s nothing but a bench guy and the Yanks only get five games this week. White stunk up until this last week but still only a part-time guy only usable against southpaws (and the Astros may get none in six games this week). Vargas hit second but doesn’t play every day. The Dbacks go to Coors so there’s some allure as a rental.
Middle Infielders – **Carter Kieboom** (RH/WAS), **Luis Rengifo** (SW/LAA), Eric Sogard (LH/TOR), Ronny Rodriguez (RH/DET), Sean Rodriguez (RH/PHI)
Kieboom and Rengifo are the belles of this week’s FAAB ball. You’ll see some folks use 50% or more of their remaining budget for the big prospect. This week is just another reminder that there will be a reason to blow a bunch of your FAAB each and every week. Not saying Kieboom won’t be worth it – he very well can. The only concern is what happens if he starts off hot and starts struggling around the time that Trea Turner returns? He could play 2B where aging wonders Brian Dozier and Howie Kendrick can play, so I guess time will tell. I personally won’t be going big on Kieboom bids in 15-teamers because my teams are loaded at 2B and SS with the likes of Mondesi, Altuve, Correa and Seager. But if you need the help, you do what you can to get him. Same for Rengifo who will primarily be valuable to rosters in need of stolen bases. He stole 41 between three minor league levels last season. Rengifo isn’t a particularly speedy guy but is very good at knowing when to run and making the most of his SB opps.
Sogard has been enjoying much success as the leadoff guy for the Blue Jays, but he’ll fall off like he does every season. I wouldn’t pay the market price for what he’s been doing the last couple weeks. RonnyRod is a very bad hitter but he’s got pop. He led Triple-A in homers prior to his promotion last season and can crush lefty arms only. Watching him against right-handed pitchers is tough to stomach. SeanRod is an old veteran better used as a cheap DFS play. May actually have no value now with Jean Segura off the IL.
Outfielders – Raimel Tapia (LH/COL), Brian Goodwin (LH/LAA), Albert Almora (RH/CHC), Joey Rickard (RH/BAL), Aaron Altherr (RH/PHI), Robbie Grossman (SW/OAK)
Not a lot of quality outfielders available in competitive 15-teamers. Tapia and Goodwin are owned in more than 60% of them and should be owned in leagues where available. Almora is a guy who has been babied way too much since making his MLB debut. He gets to lead off against lefties but perhaps should be their full-time guy atop the lineup since Ben Zobrist is horrendous. Perhaps management realizes that sooner than later but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Plus, the Cubs only get one lefty this week. He’s more of a stash and stashing is hard to do in formats with light benches. Altherr listed only because the Phillies have a couple outfielders (Odubel Herrera/Roman Quinn) on IL, but Herrera is expected back this week so Altherr will just find himself in the lineup on occasion.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
Corner Infielders – **Michael Chavis** (RH/BOS), Renato Nunez (RH/BAL), Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR), Jeimer Candelario (SW/DET)
Chavis is the prized prospect who will see hefty bids, as we saw with Alex Verdugo last week. Chavis was added in most 15-teamers but is still available in some. He needs to be scooped up there for substantial bids where available – will earn MI eligibility soon too. Nunez continues to mash from the cleanup spot for the Orioles as he’s boasting career highs in ISO (.227) and OBP (.343). Choi is a great pickup based on schedule where the Rays will see plenty of RHP – the only kind Choi is in the lineup against. Candelario, I tweeted about heating up back on April 23 and since that day he’s had at least one hit and one run scored in four straight as the team’s leadoff hitter. Don’t love his schedule this week so I’d just keep an eye on him (or bid if available in 15’s).
Middle Infielders – Marwin Gonzalez (SW/MIN), David Fletcher (RH/LAA)
Marwin is coming off a .157 week and he’s a very streaky dude. Gives you CI, MI and OF eligibility so a valuable roster spot when he’s hitting well. Fletcher has been arguably the Angels’ best hitter. He’s hitting .299 and set a career high with five RBI in a game earlier this week. Leads off against lefties. Don’t love the Angels’ schedule this week but if you want to stash for a buck or two for the week after (3 @ DET, 3 @ BAL), you can do that.
Outfielders – Kole Calhoun (LH/LAA), Josh Reddick (LH/HOU), Leury Garcia (SW/CHW), Eric Thames (LH/MIL)
Similar logic applies for Calhoun. We’re just looking a week ahead. Calhoun is incredibly streaky and we only play him with lots of RHP coming up. Same case for Reddick who strung together four multi-hit games in a row last week – we only play him against righties and Houston has mostly righties coming up. Garcia is a stolen bases guy our speed-deficient rosters could use. Thames is seeing more playing time with Jesus Aguilar struggling, but only against righties. Thames is 1B/OF eligible in most formats.
