Alcantara has the heat, but not the strikeouts. Buehler’s arm appears to be fine, but the results have been spotty. Greinke started slowly, but he’s rolling now. Kelly hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t stood out. The Angels’ Pena hasn’t been bad, but he too hasn’t stood out. Roark is pitching decently enough, ditto Velasquez. Youngster Justus Sheffield is set to make his ’19 debut. Soroka has looked solid, but how excited should you be? Taillon has a poor ERA. Should you be concerned? Wainwright… don’t bother.
Sandy Alcantara has made five starts for the Marlins. Righties have hit a healthy .293 against him with an impressive .373, but at least they haven’t done much damage yet with a .366 SLG. Teams have been loading up lefties against him, and to date that approach hasn’t worked very well (.303 wOBA). Still, it’s disappointing to have an electric arm that unleashes 95 mph heat at 86 mph sliders only to offer a 6.75 K/9 rate. There’s likely more to come in that column though as his 11.8 swinging strike rate would suggest. The key is likely the walk rate which is still elevated at 3.86 per nine.
Walker Buehler is throwing the fastball 0.7 mph harder than last season, so worries about his arm are apparently in the rearview mirror. However, the performance still hasn’t been as expected to date. Over five starts WB has a mere 18 punchouts in 24 innings leading to a dramatic dip in the K-rate at 6.75 per nine. His swinging strike rate is way down at 9.6 percent, and he’s dropped from a 64 percent first pitch strike rate down to 52 percent. That’s a troubling series of numbers. It’s nowhere close to panic time, but batters are hitting .265 against the fastball with a .310 wOBA this season after marks of .181 and .254 last season on the pitch.
A scientific way to figure out who is gonna die on Game of Thrones.
Zack Greinke allowed two hits, no runs, and a walk over seven scoreless innings against the Pirates to improve to 4-1. Remove his first start and here are the numbers over his last five outings: 4-0, 2.20 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 36 Ks in 32.2 innings. People keep waiting for him to fail because of decreasing velocity, but it ain’t happening.
Merrill Kelly has made five outings in the bigs, with mixed results. He’s allowed five homers despite a below league average 9.9 percent launch angle, though his expected SLG is also a healthy .445 (actual SLG is .444 against righties and .481 against lefties). The HR/FB ratio should recede, but he has to throw more strikes (his current walk rate is 3.64 per nine, his first pitch rate is 59 percent, and his swinging strike rate is barely eight percent). He’s looking like a 5th starter in the bigs type, not a big-time draft day bargain as many were hoping he would be early in the draft season.
This guy is a sound sleeper.
Felix Pena had a bad first game, but since then he’s been pretty solid. Over his last four outings he’s allowed a total of seven runs, with just five being earned. He’s not going deep into games as the Angels are being careful with him, he’s thrown a season best five innings each of his last two outings. He’s struck out 22 in 22.1 innings. And walked just seven batters on the year, but the homer has been an issue (four allowed) as he’s allowed a generous 41 percent fly ball rate. He’s been effective against righties in his young career with a .230/.280/.391 line against them.
Tanner Roark in five starts with the Reds this season, hasn’t thrown one quality start as he’s been stopped at a season-high of 5.1 innings. He’s not pitching badly; he’s just being removed early by the Reds. In the last three, Roark has allowed four runs (three earned) his last three starts leaving him with a 3.24 ERA despite a 1-1 record on the years. The walk rate is elevated at 3.96 per nine, but he’s also pushed the K-rate up to 8.64 per nine, though the resulting 2.18 K/BB ratio is well off his career 2.76 mark. The .370 BABIP is stupid high, so I’m more concerned about the continuing drop in his GB/FB ratio (1.56 in 3016, 1.51, 1.08 and now 0.96 in 2019). A rotation rounder outer, nothing more.
Do you need help getting your food delivered? Don’t call the police.
Anibal Sanchez has made five starts for the Nationals, and he’s been awful (6.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 5.33 BB/9). If he doesn’t get going, the Nationals will have to replace him as he’s walked nine guys the last two outings. When on, he’s good. When off, like he was all 2017, he’s really bad.
Justus Sheffield (see his Player Profile) will make his Mariners debut Friday behind The Opener (Yusei Kikuchi). The Mariners are planning to limit the workload of Kikuchi a bit this season, but using him as an Opener every 5-6 starts, so Sheffield will fill in behind him Friday. Sheffield will be pitching on three days rest, so he may not be able to throw 90 pitches even if he’s rolling along. It appears that this might be a one and done scenario for Sheffield as it’s unlikely that he will be kept around to work out of the bullpen as the team really wants to give him a chance to start. He could stick around with an impressive performance, or a poor showing by Erik Swanson, but I still think it’s unlikely at the moment.
Mike Soroka of the Braves is a talented young guy. His fastball, slider, changeup and control all rank at least 55 on the 20-80 scale. Just 21 years old, he dealt with shoulder issues last season and then started slowly this year as it was an issue again. Through seven big league starts he has a 1.40 WHIP, but the ERA is under three and the K/BB ratio is 2.62. He’s been good this year. That said, he throws his changeup rarely, just 11 percent of the time this season, with his fastball (57 percent – at 42 percent sinker and 15 percent four-seamer) and slider (32) comprising the rest of his game. It really would behoove his long-term outlook if he developed another off-speed pitch behind the slider. With a 59 percent first pitch strike rate and 10.6 percent swinging strike percentage, I fear that the excitement for his services at the moment is far too high.
Jamison Taillon allowed five runs over five innings against the Diamondbacks Thursday, even though he didn’t walk a batter while striking out five. The Pirates have been extremely cautious with the righty limiting him to 85 pitches in all six of his outings, and through six outings he’s the owner of a mere 4.06 ERA. He’s only allowed two homers, and has walked just six guys, but the K-rate is down a bit (7.26 per nine). The real issue has been his comically bad 49.7 percent left on base percentage. A terrible number is 65 percent. Things will get better for Taillon.
Vince Velasquez only seems to be old (he’s actually just 26 years of age, 27 in June). Long thought of as a potentially dominant force on the bump, VV has vacillated from dominance, to struggles, to injuries and continual questions about whether or not he would be better suited working out of the bullpen. It’s early, but to this point he’s been quite sharp with 22 punchouts in 22.2 innings and a 1.01 WHIP. He’s also got the walk rate below three per nine, something he’s never done before (3.62 and 4.25 the last two years). Nothing has changed much in his overall game – his GB/FB of 0.91 is a hundredth off his career mark, his 12.5 HR/FB ratio is 0.4 tenths off his career mark – but there’s still been early success. The velocity is up an mph from the last three seasons, but even with success there are obvious concerns about how long he will last before breaking down (88.2 innings in 2015, 136 in 2016, 82 in 2017, 146.2 last season). Can roll with him for now, as long as you understand who he is and the damage he can do to your ratios in the long run.
Adam Wainwright has been better than I anticipated he would be. He’s gone six innings in 3-of-4 starts, all quality efforts for the Cardinals. Still, his overall game is very blah. Most concerning is the early struggles with the walk as he’s at 3.60 walks per nine leading to a 1.36 WHIP. Folks, that would be a four-year low (1.40, 1.50 and 1.46 the last three years). SIERA (4.62) and xFIP (4.42) suggest what I believe with Wainwright… he’s just league average in a best-case scenario.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
