As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based on personal research done through the season.
THE DRAFT HAPPENED. Ok, just one round, but still. We’ve made some matches for the top rookies, and rookie drafts are coming into form. Since round one has the highest success rates for future success (in context to other rounds), this will be a “stock up” only version of the stock watch. The more difficult things to decipher will be in the later rounds, but for now, after one day, the players selected should have an optimistic tinge to them.
STOCK UP
N’Keal Harry (WR, Patriots) — “Stock Up” is a relative term. Harry was already viewed as a consensus top three-to-five rookie pick in 2019 drafts and was the top selection already for many. But, with Harry going to the Patriots, he has an incredible opportunity for production early in his career. While WR Josh Gordon is hanging around, and veteran WR Demaryius Thomas was signed, but this will be Harry’s job to lose in training camp and preseason. WR Julian Edelman and WR Phillip Dorsett are the only players (beyond Gordon) who played significant snaps in 2018, and with the retirement of TE Rob Gronkowski, there are gaps in production that need to be replaced. Harry is big (listed at 6 foot 2 and 228 pounds), has speed to burn (90th percentile speed score) and was a featured college weapon at a power five school (Arizona State) his entire college career. Now, he adds being a first-round selection to his resume. There’s really nothing bad to say about him at this stage.
Kyler Murray (QB, Cardinals) — The rumors for Murray to be selected first overall by Arizona heated up considerably over the last couple of months, and that finally came to fruition last night. Murray had an amazing final season at Oklahoma, which shifted his future athletic plans. Murray now moves into a rebuilding organization where he’ll be relied on to turn the offense around. There’s a lot of work to be done here, but this solidifies the idea of Murray as a top selection in SuperFlex rookie drafts. At the very least, Murray will be a very valuable running QB who will provide multiple seasons of borderline QB1 numbers.
Josh Jacobs (RB, Raiders) — Despite the lacking college resume, Jacobs found his way into round one of the NFL draft and solidifies a very big workload for the next couple of seasons. This is a huge win for Jacobs, even though it was largely projected to happen anyway. Jacobs possesses a very interesting skill set that can thrive in both the running and receiving game. Jacobs will be one of the players the Raiders rely on offensively, and this should result in, at the very least, RB2 numbers in 2019. Being selected in round one is undeniably a positive indicator for future success for RBs, and checking that box solidifies Jacobs as a five selection in rookie drafts (including SuperFlex).
Marquise Brown (WR, Ravens) — A lot of folks are viewing Brown being selected by the Ravens as a negative, but being selected in round one FAR outweighs what situation Brown is entering. The odds of future success for Brown increased greatly by being selected in round one, though, there’s no debating his career could get off to a slow start if QB Lamar Jackson’s accuracy struggles continue. Brown made history this weekend, as the first WR to be selected in round one of the NFL draft after weighing in at the combine under 170 pounds (166). Brown is a fun and explosive player who’s capable of making a big impact on an NFL offense as a field stretcher.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, Lions) — Hockenson was selected eighth overall by the Lions, and this instantly puts him on the year one fantasy radar. While TEs tend to be slow in progressing to fantasy prominence, Hockenson has a chance to at least be a starter on some weeks. QB Matthew Stafford is in significant need of playmakers beyond WR Kenny Golladay, and Hockenson profiles as a player who can take up the middle of the field as a playmaker. WR Marvin Jones is expected to make a full recovery after ending 2018 on IR, but he is entering his age 29 season and has quite a few injuries on his resume at this stage. It’s fair to assume Hockenson will be fighting for duties as the third target in the offense to start the 2019 season.
Noah Fant (TE, Broncos) — Unlike Hockenson, Fant doesn’t have much, if any, competition for targets in Denver. Between WR Emmanuel Sanders tearing his Achilles and the aforementioned Thomas being traded in 2018, all that’s left is a skeleton of what was once a special WR depth chart. Fant tested out as an incredibly special athlete (97th percentile speed score and a 97th percentile burst score) and had great college production to go along with that. He slots in likely behind second-year WR Courtland Sutton for top weapon in the receiving game, and barring some type of setback (injury or struggling with the playbook), should be a fantasy factor in year one.
Dwayne Haskins (QB, Redskins) — Haskins was my top QB in the 2019 class, and it’s very exciting to see him go to a place that can build around him. While Washington is one of the last places thought of when evaluating skill position players, their young and improving defense is exciting, and a young RB like Derrius Guice could be a tone-setter for a young QB. Haskins thrived at Ohio State in 2018 as a pocket passer and will likely find himself in a very similar station in Washington. It could be an ugly year one, and with QB Case Keenum on the depth chart, there’s a real chance Haskins doesn’t start the year as the starter. However, from a long term standpoint, it’s a great fit. The hope would be Washington puts a big emphasis on addressing the passing game in the rest of the 2019 draft, and maybe in 2020 as well.
