Last year it was Juan Soto of the Nationals who set the world of fantasy baseball on fire. Will this year’s version be 21 year old shortstop Carter Kieboom of the Nationals who is set to make his big-league debut with the club Friday?
21 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 205 lbs
Position: Shortstop
THE NUMBERS
|
|
LEVEL |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
RUNS |
SB |
OBP |
SLG |
|
2016 |
RK |
.244 |
4 |
35 |
22 |
1 |
.323 |
.452 |
|
2017 |
RK, A |
.297 |
9 |
35 |
41 |
3 |
.396 |
.493 |
|
2018 |
A+, AA |
.280 |
16 |
69 |
84 |
9 |
.357 |
.444 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
.379 |
3 |
18 |
14 |
1 |
.506 |
.636 |
He was a 2016 first round selection out of high school.
Coming into the 2019 season, Kieboom was ranked as the 41st best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 25th by MLB.com and 16th by Baseball Prospectus.
Kieboom has one season of 65 games played as a professional (123 last season).
Kieboom has just 273 plate appearance in Double-A.
Kieboom has just 83 plate appearances at Triple-A.
He is extremely raw.
THE SKILLS
Overall Scouting Report: Kieboom has good bat speed, plus according to most scouts, impressive balance at the plate and solid pitch recognition (in some circles there was the belief that he might be too patient so he was encouraged to be a bit more aggressive at the dish). He also has the ability to get the barrel on the ball thanks to that bat speed and keen hand-eye coordination. Currently, he has more power to his pull field, though many scouts believe that, with time, he will develop the ability to drive the ball more effectively to the opposite field. In fact, many in the know also predict that he will eventually settle in with a plus power tool as well with the ability to be a 25-homer bat. He’s not a speedster per se, but he does show good baseball instincts and is a solid base runner as a result.
Player Comps: Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien
Here is some video of Carter taking some at-bats last season. You can tell, he really tries to stay inside the ball.
Let’s just start with the annihilation that has occurred of opposing pitchers when this young man has had the bat in his hands this season (don’t forget, he also had a .911 OPS and three homers in Spring Training). In 18 games at Triple-A he has a 1.142 OPS, a .487 wOBA and a 186 wRC+. That’s a magical start to the season. That said, it’s 18 games this season and he has less than 80 games above Single-A ball in his young career. We can’t project his performance based on that three week run of course, so it’s more a McGuffin than anything else when you consider the dearth of playing time he has above the low minors at this point.
Let’s take a look at this spray chart from MLB.com.
This chart speaks to his impressive work with a bat in his hands. As you can tell he’s apt to hook the ball left down the left field line, and the majority of his power is to left field. Still, for a 21 year old, the work up the middle and to right field shows that all fields approach that was noted above. When a young player shows the aptitude to spray the ball from line to line, with a good deal of power, you have to be intrigued.
In addition to the hit tool, there is his control of the strike zone. Kieboom has struck out 214 times while walking 118 times leading to a 0.55 BB/K ratio. That’s not elite by any means, but it’s certainly well above the major league average of 0.39 and speaks to his patience and strike zone recognition. Simply put, he has an enviable approach for a 21 year old.
PLAYING TIME
What position will CK end up at after he made 26 errors last season at shortstop? Here is what Carlos Collazo of Baseball America said back in January. “Obviously, most shortstops can make the transition to second base fairly easily if they have the footwork to turn the double play at second. I think Carter is a smart enough kid. He has the aptitude to be able to handle that pretty well and he’s got more than enough arm strength for the position.” Note that Kieboom played 9-of-21 games at the Arizona fall leagues at second base at the end of last season, the first time he played the position as a professional. This year he’s appeared at shortstop 12 times and second base six times at the Triple-A level. His defense could be an issue, but the Nationals need offense at the moment.
Anthony Rendon has a bruised elbow, while Trea Turner remains sidelined with a finger issue. Friday, Rizzo said that he “wouldn’t call it a trial” and that CK will play shortstop until Turner returns which will be “weeks away, not months away.” Rizzo went on to suggest that there would be a 4-8 week overall recovery process for Turner, and May 1st would be the end of the first week so, duh, he could still miss most of May. If true, that means CK will get a good deal of work, potentially four weeks, to prove he belongs in the big leagues. Oh, and Rendon returned to the lineup Friday. It’s possible that the team benches Brian Dozier at some point, but given his track record of success, and his veteran presence in a lineup, it’s a bit of a stretch to this scribe to think that will happen. You just don’t give up on a player with Dozier’s track record after four weeks of a season. That’s not to say that Kieboom is being called up to full a bench role, that’s nonsensical at this point (as noted in this MASN report, GM Mike Rizzo has a history of promoting minor leaguers with the intention of giving them full-time work). Add it all up and it seems likely that Rendon is headed to the DL or Turner’s stay on the DL is going to be extended (outcomes much more likely that an outright benching of Dozier). That said, if CK struggles in the short term, the Nationals could easily turn back to Dozer/Rendon/Turner when all three are healthy, likely sending CK back to the minors (lest we forget that Howie Kendrick is also on this team).
As for spot in the batting order, it makes sense to slot Victor Robles in the second hole (where he has hit second four straight games), which would relegate CK to the bottom third of the order, potentially even 9th.
CONCLUSION
Kieboom is an impressive talent, no one can deny that. It’s also fair to point out that he has 80 games – eighty – of experience above Single-A ball. What Soto did last season makes us think it’s easy to jump levels in the minors and succeed at the major league level. It’s not, at all. There’s questions about how long this call up will last with Kieboom, so exercising some caution with wildly overspending or overestimating with Kieboom seems prudent.
I also want to speak to something.
Someone came at me on Twitter about the advice I was giving with Kieboom. They stated how I said similar things about Cody Bellinger a few years back, and that I was obviously totally wrong. This is one of the biggest problems we face in fantasy baseball. People remember the hits, but not the failures. Every year I write about the fact that rookies just don’t pay off as people think it does, and the data is irrefutable. Anyone can pick out the “hit”, but all those who do so seem to conveniently forget all the failures which is what happens in the overwhelming majority of cases (as the work in the linked to article shows, there’s less than a 20 percent chance of the elite minor leaguers truly hitting in their first season).
Could it all work out for Kieboom? Sure, it could.
Could he struggle at the plate? Yes.
Could he struggle for playing time? Yes.
Could he struggle defensively? Yes.
The odds are pretty great that Kieboom will not replicate the success of Juan Soto. It’s much more likely that either (A) Kieboom fails to live up to the overwhelming amount of hype he is receiving or (B) he has a season that places him as nothing more than a boring middle infield option in mixed leagues.
FABB suggestion: A 15-20 percent of budget bid is logical. However, it’s likely to take upwards of 30-50 percent to acquire him in some leagues (going all-in at the higher end of that amount would make me extremely uncomfrtable). Going all in like that is a significant risk as he could be back in the minors in a month when Turner is ready to rock.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
